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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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Not sure but I think most recently 2009 and 2010 ended Oct on very warm notes.

Well there goes that idea. I honestly think because there's so many different outcomes that have resulted from so many different fall arrangements that I don't feel anxious nor excited about anything that happens during the fall season. So we'll see what happens I guess.

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actually 2007 featured a cool down late month and into november. it was late September thru mid october that torched

That's discouraging but like I just posted I think winter seasonal forecasting is a borderline crap shoot because there's always that exception to the rule that kills a statistically based forecast.

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Next chance of rain will  likely come thu/fri with the frontal passage and then again in about a week (next sunday) with a another front anf perhaps stronger system.  The ecm (fyiw) is much wetter than the gfs for both.  Either way most all guidance has a trough  setting up in the east between the 18th and 22nd period and perhaps beyond.  Coolest air looks to be centered west of the area.  Looks like the ensembles and loger range guidance trying to build a strong ridge out west and continue the trough into the east towards the last week of the month but its way out there.

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Very impressive cold period on the 12z GFS 10/20 through 10/30. Should knock departures back quite a bit, down to +3 at maximum, probably +2 at minimum by month's end. I'm at +9.6 for the month IMBY so we've got a ways to go. Getting sunny here now.     

 

 

Euro is also impressive with it next weekend at 12z. Most places will have a shot at a freeze, its also a prolonged cold shot with the ridge out west

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With all that heat in the NW Atlantic, I feel there will be constant resistance from any incoming trough, however it could also provide extra fuel if we ever get a strong coastal to develop. 

 

I do wonder what the repercussions will be this winter, if any, over all that heat left in the Atlantic because of this year's lackluster hurricane season. 

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Let's pray the CFS v2 progression is wrong, and this is something I fear to be honest. Continues the cold pattern into early/mid November, then the -NAO signal breaks down around the 15th, but the +PNA persists. Cold weather into late November via a favorable Pacific, unfavorable atlantic, and then we lose the NPAC by the end of November with what looks to be a +EPO / +NAO and a nationwide blowtorch by the beginning of December. It's definitely a possibility but of course its accuracy at this range is questionable.          

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Let's pray the CFS v2 progression is wrong, and this is something I fear to be honest. Continues the cold pattern into early/mid November, then the -NAO signal breaks down around the 15th, but the +PNA persists. Cold weather into late November via a favorable Pacific, unfavorable atlantic, and then we lose the NPAC by the end of November with what looks to be a +EPO / +NAO and a nationwide blowtorch by the beginning of December. It's definitely a possibility but of course its accuracy at this range is questionable.          

Can you please post the link on where you can view this. Thanks!

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TEB has routinely been warmer than EWR since september... what's going on?

I've been noticing this as well since the past summer. It seems to have gotten worse in the past few weeks though. I'm only 4 miles or so from the airport and they have routinely reported temperatures 3-5 degrees warmer than my Davis almost every day. Normally my temps are almost identical. The other night there were some real wacky readings where EWR was at 58, I was at 57, and TEB came in with like 44 degrees. The temp bounced back up 10 or 12 degrees the following hour, but there's definitely some sort of problem with the sensor. 

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Let's pray the CFS v2 progression is wrong, and this is something I fear to be honest. Continues the cold pattern into early/mid November, then the -NAO signal breaks down around the 15th, but the +PNA persists. Cold weather into late November via a favorable Pacific, unfavorable atlantic, and then we lose the NPAC by the end of November with what looks to be a +EPO / +NAO and a nationwide blowtorch by the beginning of December. It's definitely a possibility but of course its accuracy at this range is questionable.

Nothing worst than wasted cold in November
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