snywx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Mix of sun & clouds up this way... 64F Not a bad day today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Agree, definitely a very Nino-like pattern being depicted for late October and probably the beginning of November at least. The question in my mind is will the -EPO signaling persist into and through the month of November. If so, then that becomes a favorable indicator for our winter, as the November EPO state has a high positive correlation with the ensuing DJF EPO modality. So I like seeing these developments for sure, but I'm not necessarily getting excited yet. Just too early. Yeah, I think the NAO drop is hinting at the potential for some degree of blocking being in play this winter on the Atlantic side. We'll have to wait until the end of October to have the monthly composite to match up to previous Octobers. The only thing that I can say about the Pacific side is that sometimes neutral winters like 93-94 can have alternating months of positive and negative EPO phases. But it will be interesting to see if we can a least get one of the three winter months with decent blocking near Alaska to coincide with blocking on the Atlantic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Be on the lookout for another coastal storm once the NAO rebounds again, it's going to go negative in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yeah, I think... like 93-94Bluewave makes his winter prediction. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Be on the lookout for another coastal storm once the NAO rebounds again, it's going to go negative in a couple days. The NAO could rebound, at least near the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The NAO could rebound, at least near the end of the month. After the 16 or 17th it looks to rebound so once it approaches neutral I would expect some kind of storm, so yeah it's towards the end of the month, maybe 23-25th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Bluewave makes his winter prediction. Sign me up. Haha, it would be great if it was that easy. I will never forget the brutal cold along with the ice storm in january 1994. I can remember my boss keeping the business open during the early January ice storm. That was one of the scariest drives home form work that I ever had at about 8 pm. I gently applied my brakes in front on my house to park the car and it slid sideways right into the curb. I was very happy when I got the car safely in the parking spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Haha, it would be great if it was that easy. I will never forget the brutal cold along with the ice storm in january 1994. I can remember my boss keeping the business open during the early January ice storm. That was one of the scariest drives home form work that I ever had at about 8 pm. I gently applied my brakes in front on my house to park the car and it slid sideways right into the curb. I was very happy when I got the car safely in the parking spot. We would go down to a park right on the Hudson near the TZ bridge to see how far we could skip rocks across the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 0z GFS is troughy in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 0z GFS is troughy in the long range. It really does. Prolonged trough from the 20th thru the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Gfs almost looks like early winter in the long range, pure fantasy but nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Percent of normal rain past 2 weeks. Only 5% of normal on the south shore of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Gfs almost looks like early winter in the long range, pure fantasy but nice to see. Snowflakes on HALLOWEEN --> MY biggest nightmare. Hold the flakes mother nature. I'd like to make it to thanksgiving w/o an accumulating snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Haha! Could it be? A trifecta? Three ~ Halloweens in a row with a snowstorm? Yeah last year was a few days after but who's counting Heheh, it might as well snow, hopefully it brings down the last of the broken branches hanging up in the trees around my property, I haven't used all my vacation days yet this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 After the big bust of a coastal (sunny skies right now), it looks really mild for nearly the the entire week. There are signs that we cool down the last 1/3 of the month, probably around the 18th and beyond with the PNA going positive, negative NAO (could be rising though, storm potential?). However I suspect the month will still average well above normal as negative departures will be hard to come by until really the 20th I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Sun is out here. Total precipitation from the system here was 0.57". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 After the big bust of a coastal (sunny skies right now), it looks really mild for nearly the the entire week. There are signs that we cool down the last 1/3 of the month, probably around the 18th and beyond with the PNA going positive, negative NAO (could be rising though, storm potential?). However I suspect the month will still average well above normal as negative departures will be hard to come by until really the 20th I believe. Yeah, the next 5 days look pretty mild. There are definite indications on the Ensembles of a cool down after the 18th like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 So far thru Oct - 11 place...temp departure (precip) NYC: +6.9 (0.27) EWR: +6.8 (0.38) LGA: +6.2 (0.37) JFK: +6.2 (0.27) TTN: +7.5 (1.4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 If you're looking for a cold winter a cold October means nothing neither does a warm one..............better to have the warmth now than in November which usually carries into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Vibrant colors along with bright sunshine.. Beautiful day on the way. Temp of 63f Total precip from the event 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 So far thru Oct - 11 place...temp departure (precip) NYC: +6.9 (0.27) EWR: +6.8 (0.38) LGA: +6.2 (0.37) JFK: +6.2 (0.27) TTN: +7.5 (1.4) Out of curiosity where would that rank all time if the month were to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Out of curiosity where would that rank all time if the month were to end. In NYC Oct 2007 ended +6.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 In NYC Oct 2007 ended +6.7 And is that the warmest October on record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Not a cloud in the sky at Bear Mountain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 And is that the warmest October on record? jetskie i dont have access to my records but I believe that was the warmest. Unc can confirm or clarify that one. I will be able to check later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 jetskie i dont have access to my records but I believe that was the warmest. Unc can confirm or clarify that one. I will be able to check later Ok right that no problem, thanks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Check out the low clouds pushing in to New England thanks to the east/northeast winds http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Isn't it significant how the month closes out when it comes to statistical data regarding how winters ended up? Did our dud winters that featured warm Octobers close out the month with a torch? I have to imagine that finishing the month with a major cool down has to be better than finishing it with above normal temps, though I have no data to back that assumption up. Anyone have any stats regarding that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Isn't it significant how the month closes out when it comes to statistical data regarding how winters ended up? Did our dud winters that featured warm Octobers close out the month with a torch? I have to imagine that finishing the month with a major cool down has to be better than finishing it with above normal temps, though I have no data to back that assumption up. Anyone have any stats regarding that? actually 2007 featured a cool down late month and into november. it was late September thru mid october that torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Isn't it significant how the month closes out when it comes to statistical data regarding how winters ended up? Did our dud winters that featured warm Octobers close out the month with a torch? I have to imagine that finishing the month with a major cool down has to be better than finishing it with above normal temps, though I have no data to back that assumption up. Anyone have any stats regarding that? Not sure but I think most recently 2009 and 2010 ended Oct on very warm notes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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