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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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Agree, definitely a very Nino-like pattern being depicted for late October and probably the beginning of November at least. The question in my mind is will the -EPO signaling persist into and through the month of November. If so, then that becomes a favorable indicator for our winter, as the November EPO state has a high positive correlation with the ensuing DJF EPO modality.

 

So I like seeing these developments for sure, but I'm not necessarily getting excited yet. Just too early.

 

Yeah, I think the NAO drop is hinting at the potential for some degree of blocking being in play this winter on the Atlantic

side. We'll have to wait until the end of October to have the monthly composite to match up to previous Octobers.

 

The only thing that I can say about the Pacific side is that sometimes neutral winters like 93-94 can have alternating

months of positive and negative EPO phases. But it will be interesting to see if we can a least get one of the

three winter months with decent blocking near Alaska to coincide with blocking on the Atlantic side.

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Bluewave makes his winter prediction. Sign me up.

:)

 

Haha, it would be great if it was that easy. :D I will never forget the brutal cold along with the ice storm in january 1994.

I can remember my boss keeping the business open during the early January ice storm. That was one of the scariest

drives home form work that I ever had at about 8 pm. I gently applied my brakes in front on my house to park the car

and it slid sideways right into the curb. I was very happy when I got the car safely in the parking spot.

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Haha, it would be great if it was that easy. :D I will never forget the brutal cold along with the ice storm in january 1994.

I can remember my boss keeping the business open during the early January ice storm. That was one of the scariest

drives home form work that I ever had at about 8 pm. I gently applied my brakes in front on my house to park the car

and it slid sideways right into the curb. I was very happy when I got the car safely in the parking spot.

We would go down to a park right on the Hudson near the TZ bridge to see how far we could skip rocks across the ice.

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Haha!  Could it be?  A trifecta?  Three ~ Halloweens in a row with a snowstorm?  Yeah last year was a few days after but who's counting  :snowing:   Heheh, it might as well snow, hopefully it brings down the last of the broken branches hanging up in the trees around my property, I haven't used all my vacation days yet this year.

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After the big bust of a coastal (sunny skies right now), it looks really mild for nearly the the entire week. There are signs that we cool down the last 1/3 of the month, probably around the 18th and beyond with the PNA going positive, negative NAO (could be rising though, storm potential?). However I suspect the month will still average well above normal as negative departures will be hard to come by until really the 20th I believe. 

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After the big bust of a coastal (sunny skies right now), it looks really mild for nearly the the entire week. There are signs that we cool down the last 1/3 of the month, probably around the 18th and beyond with the PNA going positive, negative NAO (could be rising though, storm potential?). However I suspect the month will still average well above normal as negative departures will be hard to come by until really the 20th I believe. 

 

Yeah, the next 5 days look pretty mild. There are definite indications on the Ensembles of a cool down after the 18th like you said.

 

f168.gif

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Isn't it significant how the month closes out when it comes to statistical data regarding how winters ended up? Did our dud winters that featured warm Octobers close out the month with a torch? I have to imagine that finishing the month with a major cool down has to be better than finishing it with above normal temps, though I have no data to back that assumption up. Anyone have any stats regarding that?

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Isn't it significant how the month closes out when it comes to statistical data regarding how winters ended up? Did our dud winters that featured warm Octobers close out the month with a torch? I have to imagine that finishing the month with a major cool down has to be better than finishing it with above normal temps, though I have no data to back that assumption up. Anyone have any stats regarding that?

actually 2007 featured a cool down late month and into november. it was late September thru mid october that torched

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Isn't it significant how the month closes out when it comes to statistical data regarding how winters ended up? Did our dud winters that featured warm Octobers close out the month with a torch? I have to imagine that finishing the month with a major cool down has to be better than finishing it with above normal temps, though I have no data to back that assumption up. Anyone have any stats regarding that?

 

Not sure but I think most recently 2009 and 2010 ended Oct on very warm notes. 

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