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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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Not best news from Euro if one wants to enjoy a long 3-day Columbus Day weekend. So many people have plans this weekend. Almost time for a thread for this weekend storm.

I was planning on waiting for the 18z runs. While I've been rooting for a big rainstorm for a long time the timing is terrible as I have plains to play golf Friday and Saturday.

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We're talking about a 1012mb low and a 1027mb high. I'm really thinking the winds won't be much of an issue at all excpet for maybe the Cape and far east end of LI

Constant easterly fetch for 4-5 days will present problems for the LI sound locations. Especially for Western LI Sound locations.

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The western LI Sound locations are already having flooding issues.


COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

354 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013

...LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

CTZ009-NYZ071-073-176-177-091000-

/O.NEW.KOKX.CF.S.0021.131009T1800Z-131009T2000Z/

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-BRONX-NORTHERN QUEENS-

NORTHERN NASSAU-

354 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013

* LOCATIONS...ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHERN

WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...THE BRONX...NORTHERN QUEENS AND NORTHERN

NASSAU COUNTIES.

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.

* TIMING...DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM ON

WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS

AND/OR BASEMENTS. ANY IMPACT ON PROPERTY WILL BE MINIMAL.

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can someone post the 12z NAM QPF map and the 18z QPF map side by side?  (I'm horrible at that stuff!)

18z NAM is just coming out now. It's only out to hr36.

 

Just for a perspective, at hr 42 on the 12z run the rain was still hundreds of miles south where 18z at hr 36 has the rain beginning.

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Well, a good trend on the 18z NAM as far as getting the system north, it chose to split the energy and send the heaviest rain into central PA. It's an outlier in doing this. It has a very sharp SW to NE gradiant which I don't recall ever seeing before with a coastal.

 

Rain finally moves into northern sections on Friday but it looks nothing like the Euro.

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Well, a good trend on the 18z NAM as far as getting the system north, it chose to split the energy and send the heaviest rain into central PA. It's an outlier in doing this. It has a very sharp SW to NE gradiant which I don't recall ever seeing before with a coastal.

 

Rain finally moves into northern sections on Friday but it looks nothing like the Euro.

If there is a deep easterly flow, I expect rain further inland than models show. That is an upslope direction after all, into the mountains.

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Well, the drought on LI continues.  we had 0.04" rain from this latest nor'easter and 0.10" from the alleged heavy rain event on Monday.  Not exactly drought breaking stuff.

 

We've been averaging about 1.5" of rain per month since mid-July.  Only 0.14" over the past 3 weeks and the next week looks dry.

 

Ed

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Some interesting years showing up in the analog package for H5 patterns in late October...

2002, 1976, 1995, 1957, 1960, 2009....can you say heavy hitters? Create a line-up with that team and you'll win every time.

814analog.off.gif

 

It's very interesting that Nino 3.4 is currently -0.3C and the SOI has been positive recently. A big -EPO ridge in October

is usually associated with El Nino conditions and not the current cold conditions in the Pacific. Just look at all those years

with El Ninos in the composite. The vortex near Alaska faded back in September and you would have thought that

it would have been cranking this October like in most cold Pacific Octobers.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml

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It's very interesting that Nino 3.4 is currently -0.3C and the SOI has been positive recently. A big -EPO ridge in October

is usually associated with El Nino conditions and not the current cold conditions in the Pacific. Just look at all those years

with El Ninos in the composite. The vortex near Alaska faded back in September and you would have thought that

it would have been cranking this October like in most cold Pacific Octobers.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml

 

 

 

Agree, definitely a very Nino-like pattern being depicted for late October and probably the beginning of November at least. The question in my mind is will the -EPO signaling persist into and through the month of November. If so, then that becomes a favorable indicator for our winter, as the November EPO state has a high positive correlation with the ensuing DJF EPO modality.

 

So I like seeing these developments for sure, but I'm not necessarily getting excited yet. Just too early.

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