jm1220 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 I'm going to be in State College this weekend, so I definitely don't want this stretching back so far west. Hopefully it confines to the coast or trends south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Any wind with this? Not really, the deepest the coastal makes it to is 1012 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Euro has another shot of rain for the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 We have fairly strong high pressure in place, to begin with. That will cause a tight gradient with gale force wind gusts possibly hitting the NJ/DE shores. The pressure gradient weakens further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 DT posted a freebie of the 12z Euro 120 hr total rainfall. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=585646458149283&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The NAM might finally be coming on board this run. Looks further north through 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 DT posted a freebie of the 12z Euro 120 hr total rainfall. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=585646458149283&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater That's the same program that I have, although his map doesn't include hours 120-150 where we get more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Not best news from Euro if one wants to enjoy a long 3-day Columbus Day weekend. So many people have plans this weekend. Almost time for a thread for this weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Not best news from Euro if one wants to enjoy a long 3-day Columbus Day weekend. So many people have plans this weekend. Almost time for a thread for this weekend storm. I was planning on waiting for the 18z runs. While I've been rooting for a big rainstorm for a long time the timing is terrible as I have plains to play golf Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 18z NAM much further north than 12z. Heavy band coming up the coast. Rain up to LBI by 00z Thursday. Very heavy rain from Cape May south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Full moon tides this weekend as well. We're talking about a 1012mb low and a 1027mb high. I'm really thinking the winds won't be much of an issue at all excpet for maybe the Cape and far east end of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 We're talking about a 1012mb low and a 1027mb high. I'm really thinking the winds won't be much of an issue at all excpet for maybe the Cape and far east end of LI Constant easterly fetch for 4-5 days will present problems for the LI sound locations. Especially for Western LI Sound locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Not to mention also that the Euro and other models have 30-40mph wind gusts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Not to mention also that the Euro and other models have 30-40mph wind gusts as well. Gotcha, the Euro maps I have don't show the low level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 can someone post the 12z NAM QPF map and the 18z QPF map side by side? (I'm horrible at that stuff!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Rain begins in NYC between 03z and 06z Thursday on the 18z NAM. Heavy stuff still SW of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The western LI Sound locations are already having flooding issues. COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 354 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... CTZ009-NYZ071-073-176-177-091000- /O.NEW.KOKX.CF.S.0021.131009T1800Z-131009T2000Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-BRONX-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU- 354 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013 * LOCATIONS...ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...THE BRONX...NORTHERN QUEENS AND NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTIES. * TIDAL DEPARTURES...AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. * TIMING...DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM ON WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS. ANY IMPACT ON PROPERTY WILL BE MINIMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 can someone post the 12z NAM QPF map and the 18z QPF map side by side? (I'm horrible at that stuff!) 18z NAM is just coming out now. It's only out to hr36. Just for a perspective, at hr 42 on the 12z run the rain was still hundreds of miles south where 18z at hr 36 has the rain beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 18z NAM going back to it's solution from a few days ago. Through Thursday morning the heaviest rain by far is south and west of Philly. Very little rain north of I-80 through hr 42 while eastern PA and most of NJ is getting clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Well, a good trend on the 18z NAM as far as getting the system north, it chose to split the energy and send the heaviest rain into central PA. It's an outlier in doing this. It has a very sharp SW to NE gradiant which I don't recall ever seeing before with a coastal. Rain finally moves into northern sections on Friday but it looks nothing like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Well, a good trend on the 18z NAM as far as getting the system north, it chose to split the energy and send the heaviest rain into central PA. It's an outlier in doing this. It has a very sharp SW to NE gradiant which I don't recall ever seeing before with a coastal. Rain finally moves into northern sections on Friday but it looks nothing like the Euro. If there is a deep easterly flow, I expect rain further inland than models show. That is an upslope direction after all, into the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Can someone please make a new thread for the rain threat for this weekend. BTW, 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Good call on not mentioning the 18z GFS, looks like a fluke run and the Euro is tough to beat at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 These fluctuations within the NAO from positive to negative back to positive is indicative of a stormy, active pattern generally so I do expect a lot more action in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Only made it to 61 here today... may be hard to break 60 next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Well, the drought on LI continues. we had 0.04" rain from this latest nor'easter and 0.10" from the alleged heavy rain event on Monday. Not exactly drought breaking stuff. We've been averaging about 1.5" of rain per month since mid-July. Only 0.14" over the past 3 weeks and the next week looks dry. Ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Some interesting years showing up in the analog package for H5 patterns in late October...2002, 1976, 1995, 1957, 1960, 2009....can you say heavy hitters? Create a line-up with that team and you'll win every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 GFS is at least mid 70s next Thursday. Even the 'noreaster' was only able to get us a -1 or -2 the past couple days and today will easily be above normal. Probably looking at at least a +3 for the month all said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Some interesting years showing up in the analog package for H5 patterns in late October... 2002, 1976, 1995, 1957, 1960, 2009....can you say heavy hitters? Create a line-up with that team and you'll win every time. It's very interesting that Nino 3.4 is currently -0.3C and the SOI has been positive recently. A big -EPO ridge in October is usually associated with El Nino conditions and not the current cold conditions in the Pacific. Just look at all those years with El Ninos in the composite. The vortex near Alaska faded back in September and you would have thought that it would have been cranking this October like in most cold Pacific Octobers. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 It's very interesting that Nino 3.4 is currently -0.3C and the SOI has been positive recently. A big -EPO ridge in October is usually associated with El Nino conditions and not the current cold conditions in the Pacific. Just look at all those years with El Ninos in the composite. The vortex near Alaska faded back in September and you would have thought that it would have been cranking this October like in most cold Pacific Octobers. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml Agree, definitely a very Nino-like pattern being depicted for late October and probably the beginning of November at least. The question in my mind is will the -EPO signaling persist into and through the month of November. If so, then that becomes a favorable indicator for our winter, as the November EPO state has a high positive correlation with the ensuing DJF EPO modality. So I like seeing these developments for sure, but I'm not necessarily getting excited yet. Just too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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