Snow_Miser Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The 12z UKMET is a hit. Looks further NW than the GFS. Actually gets substantial precipitation into SNE. Hour 60 Hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The UKMET, a dry model, is quite wet for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The UKMET, a dry model, is quite wet for us. That model is useful as a red flag when it's more tucked into the coast than the rest of the reliable guidance in winter. I'm not sure how well it performs outside of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 12z GGEM precip totals through hr 120 (Drops a lot more rain after hr 120) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 12z GEFS ensemble mean is northwest of the op with the rain. Gets the 1" mark to Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The RGEM looks like it would be a hit for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 12z Euro is also a hit. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 For what it's worth, the Hi-Res NAM is way north of the regular NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The 12z EURO is the wettest run that we've had. 2"+ mark into NYC through hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The 12z Euro looks like it is coming in wetter than the GFS further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 12z Euro also starts raining at 06z on Thursday and it's still raining as of 00z Saturday with the coastal sitting and spinning. It looks like several periods of rain as the moisture rotates in off the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The 12z Euro looks like it is coming in wetter than the GFS further north. I don't have access to the maps, but that is a great trend for sure. This storm will be loaded with moisture and if if could get up here, major flooding could be a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Through hr 90, 3"+ mark on Long Island, 2.5"+ for NYC. 1.75"+ line stretching back to central PA/NY (still raining) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 System then redevelops at hr 96 tucked right into the coast. Sitting basically due east of VA beach. If this was winter, it would have been a Mother of God run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Ah if only this was winter. I'll definitely enjoy this cool, murky pattern for a few days as it adds a certain novelty to autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Ah if only this was winter. I'll definitely enjoy this cool, murky pattern for a few days as it adds a certain novelty to autumn. Yeah if we had this setup during winter it would have been epic, of course the high to the north would have been creating better subsidence and the snow would have likely gone for Philly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 System then redevelops at hr 96 tucked right into the coast. Sitting basically due east of VA beach. If this was winter, it would have been a Mother of God run.[/quote Which is why I will always take my chances in a blocking pattern. The trend on the Euro is a good one!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 System then redevelops at hr 96 tucked right into the coast. Sitting basically due east of VA beach. If this was winter, it would have been a Mother of God run.[/quote Which is why I will always take my chances in a blocking pattern. The trend on the Euro is a good one!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Euro is pretty chilly when it's raining as well. Has a temperature of 53 in SMQ Thursday afternoon when it's raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Through 18z Sunday still raining. Up to 3"+ now for mostly everyone. 2.5"+ for the NW burbs. 1.0"+ line all the way back to Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 I don't have access to the maps, but that is a great trend for sure. This storm will be loaded with moisture and if if could get up here, major flooding could be a concern. The Euro is a little further north with the cutoff and subtropical moisture feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Storm still sitting east of VA on Monday. Rain stretching back to the interior. At this point it's likely just scattered, but it's still a nasty mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Euro is pretty chilly when it's raining as well. Has a temperature of 53 in SMQ Thursday afternoon when it's raining. Which is why I think the forecast temps are a bit too high for those days. NE winds with cloudy skies and rain tend skew lower temps most of the time. I think many places may be stuck in the 50s if the Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 South shore of Long Island is the JP zone. 4-5"+ with 5"+ sitting just south. Things wrapping up at last Monday night. This would be quite a memorable storm as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 South shore of Long Island is the JP zone. 4-5"+ with 5"+ sitting just south. Things wrapping up at last Monday night. This would be quite a memorable storm as modeled. Wow. Big shift north. What do other areas get QPF wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Storm still sitting east of VA on Monday. Rain stretching back to the interior. At this point it's likely just scattered, but it's still a nasty mess. seems like somebody in the mid atlantic is going to end up with 8"+ in a 4-5 day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Any wind with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 For those that want it 12z Euro through hr 156. I-78 south to Cape May in NJ and west to eastern PA 3"+ 2.5"+ mark back to central PA Very sharp northern cutoff. SW CT gets 3"+ while northeast CT gets around an inch. Less than an inch for Boston. Less than an inch for Boston. A general 2-4" for most all interests in this area. Slightly more for Long Island. Heaviest and steadiest rain is 12z Thursday to 12z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 seems like somebody in the mid atlantic is going to end up with 8"+ in a 4-5 day period The Mid-Atlantic is really about the same as us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Euro goes way wet 2-4 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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