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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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The 12z Euro looks like it is coming in wetter than the GFS further north.

I don't have access to the maps, but that is a great trend for sure. This storm will be loaded with moisture and if if could get up here, major flooding could be a concern.

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Ah if only this was winter. I'll definitely enjoy this cool, murky pattern for a few days as it adds a certain novelty to autumn. 

Yeah if we had this setup during winter it would have been epic, of course the high to the north would have been creating better subsidence and the snow would have likely gone for Philly south.

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System then redevelops at hr 96 tucked right into the coast. Sitting basically due east of VA beach. If this was winter, it would have been a Mother of God run.[/quote

Which is why I will always take my chances in a blocking pattern. The trend on the Euro is a good one!!!

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System then redevelops at hr 96 tucked right into the coast. Sitting basically due east of VA beach. If this was winter, it would have been a Mother of God run.[/quote

Which is why I will always take my chances in a blocking pattern. The trend on the Euro is a good one!!!

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I don't have access to the maps, but that is a great trend for sure. This storm will be loaded with moisture and if if could get up here, major flooding could be a concern.

 

The Euro is a little further north with the cutoff  and subtropical moisture feed. 

 

 

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Euro is pretty chilly when it's raining as well. Has a temperature of 53 in SMQ Thursday afternoon when it's raining.

 

Which is why I think the forecast temps are a bit too high for those days. NE winds with cloudy skies and rain tend skew lower temps most of the time. I think many places may be stuck in the 50s if the Euro is correct. 

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For those that want it 12z Euro through hr 156.

 

I-78 south to Cape May in NJ and west to eastern PA 3"+

 

2.5"+ mark back to central PA

 

Very sharp northern cutoff. SW CT gets 3"+ while northeast CT gets around an inch. Less than an inch for Boston.

 

Less than an inch for Boston.

 

A general 2-4" for most all interests in this area. Slightly more for Long Island.

 

Heaviest and steadiest rain is 12z Thursday to 12z Saturday.

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