winterwarlock Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 I knew I shouldnt have believed the model huggers last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 00z GFS continues to be wet for Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 00z GFS continues to be wet for Thursday and Friday. The QPF rates are prolific down here. Holy smokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 00z GFS continues to be wet for Thursday and Friday. Through the week the 00z gfs continues to focus the brunt of the rain south of acy. About 1 - 1.5 inches for the region with more south of nyc, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Latest euro weeklies definitely breaking down current "warm" domination. Looks interesting with possible cold shot/blocking for last week of october. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 00z Euro has rain starting in NYC around 18z on Thursday and persisting through 18z Friday. 1-2" rain totals. More south of NYC. Philly south is 2"+ It was also warm towards the end of the run with a cutter passing to our north. A few days with 70's for highs but nothing crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Latest euro weeklies definitely breaking down current "warm" domination. Looks interesting with possible cold shot/blocking for last week of october. Something about the bolded text sounds familiar. Does it have any detail for 10/29? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 If blocking does develop late October, we better hope it continues/persist b/c we definitely don't want a quick hitting block ala last year. Blocking broke down in mid November and you can finish the story from there. What we'd really like to see is the -NAO/AO hold off until November, then remain dominant for the bulk of the winter. It's possible models are rushing the initiation of the -NAO block which has happened numerous times in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The models are coming board with another -NAO October here. 2002 0.44 1.10 0.69 1.18 -0.22 0.38 0.62 0.38 -0.70...... -2.28 -0.18 -0.942003 0.16 0.62 0.32 -0.18 0.01 -0.07 0.13 -0.07 0.01..... -1.26 0.86 0.642004 -0.29 -0.14 1.02 1.15 0.19 -0.89 1.13 -0.48 0.38...; -1.10 0.73 1.212005 1.52 -0.06 -1.83 -0.30 -1.25 -0.05 -0.51 0.37 0.63.. -0.98 -0.31 -0.442006 1.27 -0.51 -1.28 1.24 -1.14 0.84 0.90 -1.73 -1.62 ....-2.24 0.44 1.342007 0.22 -0.47 1.44 0.17 0.66 -1.31 -0.58 -0.14 0.72 .......0.45 0.58 0.342008 0.89 0.73 0.08 -1.07 -1.73 -1.39 -1.27 -1.16 1.02 .....-0.04 -0.32 -0.282009 -0.01 0.06 0.57 -0.20 1.68 -1.21 -2.15 -0.19 1.51 .....-1.03 -0.02 -1.932010 -1.11 -1.98 -0.88 -0.72 -1.49 -0.82 -0.42 -1.22 -0.79. -0.93 -1.62 -1.852011 -0.88 0.70 0.61 2.48 -0.06 -1.28 -1.51 -1.35 0.54 ......0.39 1.36 2.522012 1.17 0.42 1.27 0.47 -0.91 -2.53 -1.32 -0.98 -0.59..... -2.06 -0.58 0.17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 12z NAM is mainly dry for Thursday and Friday, gotta love the model spread for a system less than 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 12z NAM is mainly dry for Thursday and Friday, gotta love the model spread for a system less than 4 days out. Nam is hard to use this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 what's the NAM QPF map show? Is it all suppressed south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 what's the NAM QPF map show? Is it all suppressed south?Less than a tenth of an inch, the position of the low pressure isn't terrible per se but it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The models are coming board with another -NAO October here. nao.sprd2.gif 2002 0.44 1.10 0.69 1.18 -0.22 0.38 0.62 0.38 -0.70...... -2.28 -0.18 -0.94 2003 0.16 0.62 0.32 -0.18 0.01 -0.07 0.13 -0.07 0.01..... -1.26 0.86 0.64 2004 -0.29 -0.14 1.02 1.15 0.19 -0.89 1.13 -0.48 0.38...; -1.10 0.73 1.21 2005 1.52 -0.06 -1.83 -0.30 -1.25 -0.05 -0.51 0.37 0.63.. -0.98 -0.31 -0.44 2006 1.27 -0.51 -1.28 1.24 -1.14 0.84 0.90 -1.73 -1.62 ....-2.24 0.44 1.34 2007 0.22 -0.47 1.44 0.17 0.66 -1.31 -0.58 -0.14 0.72 .......0.45 0.58 0.34 2008 0.89 0.73 0.08 -1.07 -1.73 -1.39 -1.27 -1.16 1.02 .....-0.04 -0.32 -0.28 2009 -0.01 0.06 0.57 -0.20 1.68 -1.21 -2.15 -0.19 1.51 .....-1.03 -0.02 -1.93 2010 -1.11 -1.98 -0.88 -0.72 -1.49 -0.82 -0.42 -1.22 -0.79. -0.93 -1.62 -1.85 2011 -0.88 0.70 0.61 2.48 -0.06 -1.28 -1.51 -1.35 0.54 ......0.39 1.36 2.52 2012 1.17 0.42 1.27 0.47 -0.91 -2.53 -1.32 -0.98 -0.59..... -2.06 -0.58 0.17 How did you get to that NAO graph w/ the site shut-down? It's not allowing me to go here after I click on "predictions" under "climate." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 How did you get to that NAO graph w/ the site shut-down? It's not allowing me to go here after I click on "predictions" under "climate." Does this link work for you? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The RGEM only goes out to 48 hours but the 06z run has an absolute beast of a storm for the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Does this link work for you? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml Yes, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The gfs is .25 for NYC, more south and east of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The gfs is .25 for NYC, more south and east of town The storm will have a tough time getting far north with the blocking in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 12z GFS has rain from 09z Thursday through 06z Saturday, but the heaviest definitly stays offshore. The main difference with the guidance today appears to be consolidating the energy into one low pressure system instead of severeal different waves. The 1.5"+ line cuts from Baltimore up through Philly up through Sandy Hook and then the south shore of Long Island. Ocean City, MD is in the 7.00"+ range while ACY is 1.75"+. It's a sharp gradiant initially and then some of the heavier bands make it further north eventually on Friday. The precip looks convective in nature though so I doubt it's an all out steady rain for 36hrs+. I'm not entirely sure why the NCEP maps show so much less rain than my paid stormvista maps. It's not letting my copy and paste the stormvista maps here otherwise I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 wow. Guess the issue will be any north or south shift could mean the difference b/w an inch of rain and 5 inches over a short distance...will be fun to track at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 wow. Guess the issue will be any north or south shift could mean the difference b/w an inch of rain and 5 inches over a short distance...will be fun to track at least. One thing I will say about the GFS is that it's current depiction of where the high pressure is located, where the rain shield is and where the low in question is appears to be spot on. So it looks like it initialized well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The 12z RGEM has the rain shield approaching NYC by 12z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Huge cut off. This needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 It shouldn't be a big deal up here, blocking keeps it mostly south but we'll still have to contend with showers, plenty of clouds, and cooler temperatures. A nice cold front could bring the chill back once all this onshore mess leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 It shouldn't be a big deal up here, blocking keeps it mostly south but we'll still have to contend with showers, plenty of clouds, and cooler temperatures. A nice cold front could bring the chill back once all this onshore mess leaves. I wouldnt be so sure it's a miss to the south as model tend to supress these things a bit more than what ends up as reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 It would not shock me if this pulled north inside 36 hours. The UKMET tends be very supressed with coastals and the 00z run got good RH all the way up to upstate NY. I think we see a sharp cut off but not as sharp as what some of the models have been showing. I think 1-2" of rain for the greater area is likely from Thursday afternoon through Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 It would not shock me if this pulled north inside 36 hours. The UKMET tends be very supressed with coastals and the 00z run got good RH all the way up to upstate NY. I think we see a sharp cut off but not as sharp as what some of the models have been showing. I think 1-2" of rain for the greater area is likely from Thursday afternoon through Friday night. In situations where there is a strong high north of a rain (or snow) shield and ridging, there's always a sharp precip cutoff somewhere. Confluence ultimately wins out beyond a certain point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 In situations where there is a strong high north of a rain (or snow) shield and ridging, there's always a sharp precip cutoff somewhere. Confluence ultimately wins out beyond a certain point. Yes, however this isn't the middle of winter and we're only talking about a 1027mb high pressure. If it was January and we had a 1040mb high to the north this would have been a historical snowstorm for the DC belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The 12z GGEM is a real mess with light rain to moderate rain from 12z Thursday through 12z Saturday. Then the rain begins Sunday night again and lasts till Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.