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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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Latest euro weeklies definitely breaking down current "warm" domination.  Looks interesting with possible cold shot/blocking for last week of october.

Something about the bolded text sounds familiar.  Does it have any detail for 10/29?

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If blocking does develop late October, we better hope it continues/persist b/c we definitely don't want a quick hitting block ala last year. Blocking broke down in mid November and you can finish the story from there. What we'd really like to see is the -NAO/AO hold off until November, then remain dominant for the bulk of the winter. It's possible models are rushing the initiation of the -NAO block which has happened numerous times in the past.

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The models are coming board with another -NAO October here.

 

 

2002 0.44 1.10 0.69 1.18 -0.22 0.38 0.62 0.38 -0.70...... -2.28 -0.18 -0.94
2003 0.16 0.62 0.32 -0.18 0.01 -0.07 0.13 -0.07 0.01..... -1.26 0.86 0.64
2004 -0.29 -0.14 1.02 1.15 0.19 -0.89 1.13 -0.48 0.38...; -1.10 0.73 1.21
2005 1.52 -0.06 -1.83 -0.30 -1.25 -0.05 -0.51 0.37 0.63.. -0.98 -0.31 -0.44
2006 1.27 -0.51 -1.28 1.24 -1.14 0.84 0.90 -1.73 -1.62 ....-2.24 0.44 1.34
2007 0.22 -0.47 1.44 0.17 0.66 -1.31 -0.58 -0.14 0.72 .......0.45 0.58 0.34
2008 0.89 0.73 0.08 -1.07 -1.73 -1.39 -1.27 -1.16 1.02 .....-0.04 -0.32 -0.28
2009 -0.01 0.06 0.57 -0.20 1.68 -1.21 -2.15 -0.19 1.51 .....-1.03 -0.02 -1.93
2010 -1.11 -1.98 -0.88 -0.72 -1.49 -0.82 -0.42 -1.22 -0.79. -0.93 -1.62 -1.85
2011 -0.88 0.70 0.61 2.48 -0.06 -1.28 -1.51 -1.35 0.54 ......0.39 1.36 2.52
2012 1.17 0.42 1.27 0.47 -0.91 -2.53 -1.32 -0.98 -0.59..... -2.06 -0.58 0.17

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The models are coming board with another -NAO October here.

 

attachicon.gifnao.sprd2.gif

 

2002 0.44 1.10 0.69 1.18 -0.22 0.38 0.62 0.38 -0.70...... -2.28 -0.18 -0.94

2003 0.16 0.62 0.32 -0.18 0.01 -0.07 0.13 -0.07 0.01..... -1.26 0.86 0.64

2004 -0.29 -0.14 1.02 1.15 0.19 -0.89 1.13 -0.48 0.38...; -1.10 0.73 1.21

2005 1.52 -0.06 -1.83 -0.30 -1.25 -0.05 -0.51 0.37 0.63.. -0.98 -0.31 -0.44

2006 1.27 -0.51 -1.28 1.24 -1.14 0.84 0.90 -1.73 -1.62 ....-2.24 0.44 1.34

2007 0.22 -0.47 1.44 0.17 0.66 -1.31 -0.58 -0.14 0.72 .......0.45 0.58 0.34

2008 0.89 0.73 0.08 -1.07 -1.73 -1.39 -1.27 -1.16 1.02 .....-0.04 -0.32 -0.28

2009 -0.01 0.06 0.57 -0.20 1.68 -1.21 -2.15 -0.19 1.51 .....-1.03 -0.02 -1.93

2010 -1.11 -1.98 -0.88 -0.72 -1.49 -0.82 -0.42 -1.22 -0.79. -0.93 -1.62 -1.85

2011 -0.88 0.70 0.61 2.48 -0.06 -1.28 -1.51 -1.35 0.54 ......0.39 1.36 2.52

2012 1.17 0.42 1.27 0.47 -0.91 -2.53 -1.32 -0.98 -0.59..... -2.06 -0.58 0.17

 

 

How did you get to that NAO graph w/ the site shut-down? It's not allowing me to go here after I click on "predictions" under "climate."

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12z GFS has rain from 09z Thursday through 06z Saturday, but the heaviest definitly stays offshore. The main difference with the guidance today appears to be consolidating the energy into one low pressure system instead of severeal different waves.

 

The 1.5"+ line cuts from Baltimore up through Philly up through Sandy Hook and then the south shore of Long Island. Ocean City, MD is in the 7.00"+ range while ACY is 1.75"+. It's a sharp gradiant initially and then some of the heavier bands make it further north eventually on Friday. The precip looks convective in nature though so I doubt it's an all out steady rain for 36hrs+.

 

I'm not entirely sure why the NCEP maps show so much less rain than my paid stormvista maps. It's not letting my copy and paste the stormvista maps here otherwise I would.

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wow.  Guess the issue will be any north or south shift could mean the difference b/w an inch of rain and 5 inches over a short distance...will be fun to track at least.

One thing I will say about the GFS is that it's current depiction of where the high pressure is located, where the rain shield is and where the low in question is appears to be spot on. So it looks like it initialized well.

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It shouldn't be a big deal up here, blocking keeps it mostly south but we'll still have to contend with showers, plenty of clouds, and cooler temperatures. A nice cold front could bring the chill back once all this onshore mess leaves. 

I wouldnt be so sure it's a miss to the south as model tend to supress these things a bit more than what ends up as reality.

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It would not shock me if this pulled north inside 36 hours. The UKMET tends be very supressed with coastals and the 00z run got good RH all the way up to upstate NY. I think we see a sharp cut off but not as sharp as what some of the models have been showing. I think 1-2" of rain for the greater area is likely from Thursday afternoon through Friday night.

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It would not shock me if this pulled north inside 36 hours. The UKMET tends be very supressed with coastals and the 00z run got good RH all the way up to upstate NY. I think we see a sharp cut off but not as sharp as what some of the models have been showing. I think 1-2" of rain for the greater area is likely from Thursday afternoon through Friday night.

In situations where there is a strong high north of a rain (or snow) shield and ridging, there's always a sharp precip cutoff somewhere. Confluence ultimately wins out beyond a certain point.

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In situations where there is a strong high north of a rain (or snow) shield and ridging, there's always a sharp precip cutoff somewhere. Confluence ultimately wins out beyond a certain point.

Yes, however this isn't the middle of winter and we're only talking about a 1027mb high pressure. If it was January and we had a 1040mb high to the north this would have been a historical snowstorm for the DC belt.

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