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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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What does it show?

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013100712&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=168

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013100712&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=192

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013100712&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

 

Some areas miss out but hits Coastal LI and NJ very hard. Looks nothing like the GFS. The main aspect is the constant easterly flow, rains for about 5 days because the coastal storm is stationary. Looks warm-core and develops over the gulf stream.

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I just renewed by storm vista account for the winter so now I have Euro access.

 

Rain begins at hour 78, light to moderate, continues right through hour 126. Coastal storm late in the week then sits "just" offshore. From hrs 78-126 we get about an inch of rain. It also has over 12" of rain from the coastal which sits maybe two or three hundred miles offshore currently.

 

It also has a few days with upper 70's for highs with 80's closeby before the trough moves in behind the coastal. Then we struggle to get out of the 40's.

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I just renewed by storm vista account for the winter so now I have Euro access.

 

Rain begins at hour 78, light to moderate, continues right through hour 126. Coastal storm late in the week then sits "just" offshore. From hrs 78-126 we get about an inch of rain. It also has over 12" of rain from the coastal which sits maybe two or three hundred miles offshore currently.

 

It also has a few days with upper 70's for highs with 80's closeby before the trough moves in behind the coastal. Then we struggle to get out of the 40's.

I think its in lala land....it had a torch all this week and now we probably won't get out of the 60s after today

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I think its in lala land....it had a torch all this week and now we probably won't get out of the 60s after today

At some point over the past few days, the GFS, Euro and GGEM have all brought the coastal close enough to the region in order to bring periods of rain. It's all going to come down to the exact location of the low when it cuts off. The 12"+ bullseye on the Euro just to the west of the low is an indicator of the heavy rain potentional.

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I don't think the models have any handle on any coastal low situation, I mean just look how the gfs runs have changed. So we will probably deal with clouds, a cool east wind, and some sprinkles with the onshore flow. I don't see any huge signals for a big rain event.

This is not possible due to the synoptic setup. We are transitioning to a blocked pattern, infact mabye to an extreme extent that the storm is blocked from moving northward. Some area will get decent rains out of this; but the heavier rains may not be as widespread as originally expected.

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18z GFS has the coastal low persisting just offshore like the Euro until at least next Wednesday. Somewhat unprecedented to have onshore flow for a week.

 

Did you even bother to check the ensemble means for both the GFS and the Euro? Neither of which agree with its Op run. 

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Did you even bother to check the ensemble means for both the GFS and the Euro? Neither of which agree with its Op run.

Dude, stop it already. They're just saying what the models show, nobody's canceling flights because of our interpretation of the GFS.
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Dude, stop it already. They're just saying what the models show, nobody's canceling flights because of our interpretation of the GFS.

 

Makes no difference to me, but people that want to be taken seriously should conduct themselves as such. It just goes to show that some people in the weather community are more about bs than anything substantial.

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Ensemble means are not known to have great skill over the OP in the near-term ranges. 18z GEFS look pretty similar to the OP anyhow.

Lol, we both took the bait. After looking at the GEFS it's pretty obvious that he's trolling. Still possible that the storm stays far enough offshore that it doesn't affect our weather but right now it looks like we'll at least have a couple of dreary days, even if we don't end up with significant rainfall.
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Makes no difference to me, but people that want to be taken seriously should conduct themselves as such. It just goes to show that some people in the weather community are more about bs than anything substantial.

Would you like to give me a few grand so that I can access the Euro ensembles? You have no clue.
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Did you even bother to check the ensemble means for both the GFS and the Euro? Neither of which agree with its Op run. 

 

There is nothing wrong with his post. He didn't use the 18z GFS to speculate that we were definitely going to get drenched with rain -- he posted an innocuous observation. Don't put words in people's mouths. 

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Normal October weather for the most part over the next 7 days -- should help to erase some of the extreme positives thus far. Mid/upper 60s by day with 40s at night the next 48 hours, then I could see temps cooler than progged for Thurs/Fri if we do get the hvy pcpn up here.          

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