October 2013 Observations & Discussions

[TWCCraig]

GFS does has tropical characteristics with this coastal.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/13100612/94.html

[AvantHiatus]

Sea surface temperatures tend to be over analyzed but the current October regime has translated into widespread above-normal anomalies. 

 

[Allsnow]

What a brutal loss. No sun and drizzle

[SACRUS]

What a brutal loss. No sun and drizzle

 

 

Just ugly all around watching the game.  looks like areas from about woodbridge/SI on north never got into any clearing and were stuck in the upper 60s/low 70s.  Been in and out of the sun here and temps around 74.  Just a little south its summer in the mid and upper 80s.

[Allsnow]

Forkys 90's major fail

[Snow_Miser]

Forkys 90's major fail

 

After Monday, the Euro has no tempratures above 70 at all for the general region.

[SACRUS]

Forkys 90's major fail

 

 

i-195 south was very warm mid/upper 80s.  suspect we'll be dealing plenty of clouds and onshore flow the next week.  Combined with periods of rain, positive dpeartures will likely be more in the +3 to +5 range after Monday.  Should the cutoff and associated system stay south, we could see warmer temps prevail.

[WE GOT HIM]

Looks like we can see a nice line of storms tomorrow

[Stormlover74]

Just ugly all around watching the game.  looks like areas from about woodbridge/SI on north never got into any clearing and were stuck in the upper 60s/low 70s.  Been in and out of the sun here and temps around 74.  Just a little south its summer in the mid and upper 80s.

Misty, breezy, upper 60s all day. Euro was showing a torch through mid month just 2 days ago, certainly a quick reversal on that.

[forkyfork]

Forkys 90's major fail

i said 90s were possible if the front stayed north

[SACRUS]

i said 90s were possible if the front stayed north

 

I could see temps overperforming tomrorow similar to friday if we see enough sun.  Beyond there its going to be interesting the rest of the week and into next weekend.

[forkyfork]

I could see temps overperforming tomrorow similar to friday if we see enough sun.  Beyond there its going to be interesting the rest of the week and into next weekend.

the ridge is still there, it just got too amplified and now a very weak cutoff will probably dump on us. i want the rain anyway

[Allsnow]

i said 90s were possible if the front stayed north

Jk, I wonder if Friday will be our hottest day until next year

[forkyfork]

canada really torches. i see +15c h85 temp anomalies on the euro ens mean

[SnoSki14]

I'm thinking this will be a pleasant week after tomorrow. I believe the coastal low will be further east so we won't get the heavy rain, maybe just a few sprinkles and we'll be sunny for the most part. Temperatures will probably be close to 70 if not low 70s, mid to upper 60s toward immediate coast which is just perfect for this time of year. 

[Guest Pamela]

If what Bluewave reporting turns out, I shudder at memory of that October. Deluge city. My dad passed 9/27 that year, and all I remember was the volume and frequency of rain that October. We need rain, but not a wrecked October

 

The WSO Upton saw 22.14 inches of rain that October (2005)...which is *still* the most remarkable anomalous weather event I've seen out here since moving in back in 1994.  (The 3 day total at Upton was 16.81" ).

[ADKweather27]

I'm thinking this will be a pleasant week after tomorrow. I believe the coastal low will be further east so we won't get the heavy rain, maybe just a few sprinkles and we'll be sunny for the most part. Temperatures will probably be close to 70 if not low 70s, mid to upper 60s toward immediate coast which is just perfect for this time of year.

Agreed

[SACRUS]

Agreed

 

 

Im not so sure we'll fully avoid the system.   The 18z gfs did nudge a bit east but the ecm and other guidance is wet for the period into next week.

 

[bluewave]

The Euro ensemble mean looks like it may be more suppressed than the OP with the

system later in the week. I guess how much rain we get will depend on the strength

of the block and where the UL closes off. We'll have to wait for later runs to know

which is correct.

 

[SACRUS]

Does anyone have access to the latest MEI index values?  The sites I normally use are down while the government is shutdown.

[IsentropicLift]

No way is that coastal going to miss East. The models have been locked in for days now.

[SACRUS]

No way is that coastal going to miss East. The models have been locked in for days now.

The gfs has the heaviest rain south while the ecm is stil lvery wet but delays the brunt of the rain till next weekend (10/12-13)

[bluewave]

The gfs has the heaviest rain south while the ecm is stil lvery wet but delays the brunt of the rain till next weekend (10/12-13)

 

It looks like the 0z Op Euro shifted the heaviest totals south of us, but we still get rain as the low finally lifts north.

More like the ensembles have been showing wit the stronger high over new England. But a 100 mile shift

will make a big difference.

[IsentropicLift]

The 00z GGEM through 120hrs has 5.095"-9.843" of rain on a line from Atlantic City, NJ to Ocean City, MD. 3.94"-5.91" on a line from about Porn Monmouth, NJ south to the VA/MD border and 2.95"-3.94" for most locations closer to NYC and points south. And then a general 2-3" for most other locations.

 

[winterwarlock]

Tornado watch for nj counties

[IsentropicLift]

Tornado watch for nj counties

We have a thread for it already

[Stormlover74]

after today the GFS is dry for the next 10 days

[SnoSki14]

after today the GFS is dry for the next 10 days

 

Given its inconsistency, it's hard to believe what it shows anymore but I figured the coastal would miss to the east. 

[Stormlover74]

No way is that coastal going to miss East. The models have been locked in for days now.

 

Given its inconsistency, it's hard to believe what it shows anymore but I figured the coastal would miss to the east. 

[winterwarlock]

79 for high thus far