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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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The week ahead looks overall warm but with plenty of couds mon/tue and rain mon into tue.  Ecm and gfs both bring between 0.50 and 0.75 of rain with the front and tropical remnants 10/7-8.  Beyond there persistent onshore flow will prevent temps from soaring like last week but we'll remain under a stong summer-like ridge and temps will be above normal.  ecm delays more rain until next weekend (sat) as any low finally works up the coast.  Lookling way ahead (10/14  and beyond) it still appears troughing wants to mainly stay west with riding into the east and an overall warm pattern but not as nextreme as the last week.

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On my way to the giants game. Weather kind of crappy, but the beer will take care of that

 

 

enjoy allsnow.  hopefully we can pull out of this slump.  you should see some improving weather by gametime with breaks of sune and winds going more southerly.  70s on the way,

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enjoy allsnow. hopefully we can pull out of this slump. you should see some improving weather by gametime with breaks of sune and winds going more southerly. 70s on the way,

Thanks! My gf and I never watched a game together where they did not win. We have that going for us

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Clearing taking longer than I would have expected but finally starting to break into the sun here the last half hour or so and this should progress north.

 

Interesting temp contrast like yesterday where its been sunny and you wonder we likely could have hit 90 today under full sunshine

 

 

 

NYC: 66

EWR: 69

TTN: 75

PHL: 82

DCA: 88

 

 

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SLGT Risk for Monday.

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...

...MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...
THE CLOSED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO. SHOWERS/SOME
TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING NEAR AN
EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT SPREADS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD
COVER...AND RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE.

BUT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION/INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
PARTICULARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED
BUOYANCY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
A MARKED STRENGTHENING OF LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC
WINDS...ACCENTUATED BY 50+ KT SSW WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM.
OVERALL SCENARIO COULD SUPPORT A STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
LOW-TOPPED ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
SMALL-SCALE BOWS. EVEN MODESTLY SUSTAINED /PERHAPS EVEN
NON-LIGHTNING PRODUCING/ EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS MAY CAUSE CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON.AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO.

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Ecm has been showing this feature buckling in under the cutoff ull as well.  i guess we're due for our deulge to end the dry period.

 

gfs_namer_126_precip_ptot.gif

 

Wow. 3-4" of rain for the Tri-State Area. 4-5" of rain for Coastal NJ/LI and 2-3" of rain for the N&W. I'm pretty happy about this. Although I'd wait for the ECMWF and the NAM before jumping on the rain train. 

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Wow. 3-4" of rain for the Tri-State Area. 4-5" of rain for Coastal NJ/LI and 2-3" of rain for the N&W. I'm pretty happy about this. Although I'd wait for the ECMWF and the NAM before jumping on the rain train. 

Another reason to think this is a sub-tropical storm. Either GFS is overdoing this or the storm has a deep moist layer flow from the tropics. It's about time, rain is desperately needed to avoid drought. 850mb temperatures of around 15c in the warm sector on the euro. I think it starts out tropical or STS and occludes into cold core.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013100612&region=NATL&var=TMP_850mb&hour=144

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Rain from 0z Friday to 12z Wednesday( OCT 11-16) with energy cutting under a major New England block somewhat similar

to the 500 mb pattern during October 10-15, 2005.

 

 

It wouldnt surprise me, id rather expect a prolonged wet period to end the current dry spell.  It fits well with recent reversals.   ECM looks to drop 2+ inches of rain between fri and the middle of next week.  The cut off doing its dirty work from the Mid Atlantic north.  Wiothout that we'd be continuing the torch with heights 588 DM.  Rather we're stuck under cutoff throwing back tropical moisture.

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It wouldnt surprise me, id rather expect a prolonged wet period to end the current dry spell.  It fits well with recent reversals.   ECM looks to drop 2+ inches of rain between fri and the middle of next week.  The cut off doing its dirty work from the Mid Atlantic north.  Wiothout that we'd be continuing the torch with heights 588 DM.  Rather we're stuck under cutoff throwing back tropical moisture.

 

We would be torching like crazy. Instead, a lot of interests in the immediate area see highs only in the 50s for many of the rainy days.

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