doncat Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 76 here today and 86 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Where did the shower come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Looking at the latest sat loop, we should see some breaks of sun by noon, similar to yersteray. More of a chance some storms popoup today but i woulndt doubt the second half of the day is another nice one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 The week ahead looks overall warm but with plenty of couds mon/tue and rain mon into tue. Ecm and gfs both bring between 0.50 and 0.75 of rain with the front and tropical remnants 10/7-8. Beyond there persistent onshore flow will prevent temps from soaring like last week but we'll remain under a stong summer-like ridge and temps will be above normal. ecm delays more rain until next weekend (sat) as any low finally works up the coast. Lookling way ahead (10/14 and beyond) it still appears troughing wants to mainly stay west with riding into the east and an overall warm pattern but not as nextreme as the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Euro is back door city for us next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Euro is back door city for us next week Yeah. The Euro has multiple days of moderate to heavy rain starting around day 6. The 2 meter temperatures on Accuweather Pro keep many interests in the immediate area below 60 degrees for multiple days while it's raining. Very chilly and nasty solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 On my way to the giants game. Weather kind of crappy, but the beer will take care of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 On my way to the giants game. Weather kind of crappy, but the beer will take care of that enjoy allsnow. hopefully we can pull out of this slump. you should see some improving weather by gametime with breaks of sune and winds going more southerly. 70s on the way, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 ECMWF ensembles begin to introduce lower heights with temps closer to normal by 240hrs / October 16th, but even then, we're talking mediocre cold across the CONUS. No sign of early frosts/freezes this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 67F and fogged in still here. Yesterday we broke around 1pm and managed a 76F high. Let's see if we can repeat today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 enjoy allsnow. hopefully we can pull out of this slump. you should see some improving weather by gametime with breaks of sune and winds going more southerly. 70s on the way, Thanks! My gf and I never watched a game together where they did not win. We have that going for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 0z GGEM and its shannigans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Kind of a gloomy day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Kind of? I've got <1/4 mi vis thick fog with wind and rain. Ick. Can't complain though, it has been generally beautiful for the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Gonna finish the first week of oct with a +10 degree temp departure here. Hate warm octobers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Kind of a gloomy day today. Pretty sharp contrast between the weather conditions. That fog maritime layer moved through here last night and was out by mid-morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 GFS gives us over 2" of rain on Thursday now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Yep, GFS now has a coastal storm for our area on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Clearing taking longer than I would have expected but finally starting to break into the sun here the last half hour or so and this should progress north. Interesting temp contrast like yesterday where its been sunny and you wonder we likely could have hit 90 today under full sunshine NYC: 66 EWR: 69 TTN: 75 PHL: 82 DCA: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Yep, GFS now has a coastal storm for our area on Thursday. Ecm has been showing this feature buckling in under the cutoff ull as well. i guess we're due for our deulge to end the dry period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 SLGT Risk for Monday. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013VALID 071200Z - 081200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THEMID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES......MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...THE CLOSED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TOACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH ANADDITIONAL TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO. SHOWERS/SOMETSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING NEAR ANEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT SPREADS EAST OF THEAPPALACHIANS. THIS POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION/CLOUDCOVER...AND RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...PROVIDES UNCERTAINTYREGARDING THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DIURNALHEATING CYCLE.BUT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THEREGION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION/INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILTOF THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIALPARTICULARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY LIMITEDBUOYANCY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ANDA MARKED STRENGTHENING OF LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERICWINDS...ACCENTUATED BY 50+ KT SSW WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM.OVERALL SCENARIO COULD SUPPORT A STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERELOW-TOPPED ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDEDSMALL-SCALE BOWS. EVEN MODESTLY SUSTAINED /PERHAPS EVENNON-LIGHTNING PRODUCING/ EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS MAY CAUSE CONCERN FORDAMAGING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON.AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Ecm has been showing this feature buckling in under the cutoff ull as well. i guess we're due for our deulge to end the dry period. Wow. 3-4" of rain for the Tri-State Area. 4-5" of rain for Coastal NJ/LI and 2-3" of rain for the N&W. I'm pretty happy about this. Although I'd wait for the ECMWF and the NAM before jumping on the rain train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Wow. 3-4" of rain for the Tri-State Area. 4-5" of rain for Coastal NJ/LI and 2-3" of rain for the N&W. I'm pretty happy about this. Although I'd wait for the ECMWF and the NAM before jumping on the rain train. Another reason to think this is a sub-tropical storm. Either GFS is overdoing this or the storm has a deep moist layer flow from the tropics. It's about time, rain is desperately needed to avoid drought. 850mb temperatures of around 15c in the warm sector on the euro. I think it starts out tropical or STS and occludes into cold core. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013100612®ion=NATL&var=TMP_850mb&hour=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Another reason to think this is a sub-tropical storm. Either GFS is overdoing this or the storm has a deep moist layer flow from the tropics. It's about time, rain is desperately needed to avoid drought. The Euro should be out. Has anyone seen it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 The Euro should be out. Has anyone seen it? Yeah, the coastal storm in question is on the euro but there is not a very strong signal for it. This is for 10/11 - 12z. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013100612®ion=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 The Euro should be out. Has anyone seen it? Rain from 0z Friday to 12z Wednesday( OCT 11-16) with energy cutting under a major New England block somewhat similar to the 500 mb pattern during October 10-15, 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Euro is really wet at the end of next week into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 If what Bluewave reporting turns out, I shudder at memory of that October. Deluge city. My dad passed 9/27 that year, and all I remember was the volume and frequency of rain that October. We need rain, but not a wrecked October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Rain from 0z Friday to 12z Wednesday( OCT 11-16) with energy cutting under a major New England block somewhat similar to the 500 mb pattern during October 10-15, 2005. It wouldnt surprise me, id rather expect a prolonged wet period to end the current dry spell. It fits well with recent reversals. ECM looks to drop 2+ inches of rain between fri and the middle of next week. The cut off doing its dirty work from the Mid Atlantic north. Wiothout that we'd be continuing the torch with heights 588 DM. Rather we're stuck under cutoff throwing back tropical moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 It wouldnt surprise me, id rather expect a prolonged wet period to end the current dry spell. It fits well with recent reversals. ECM looks to drop 2+ inches of rain between fri and the middle of next week. The cut off doing its dirty work from the Mid Atlantic north. Wiothout that we'd be continuing the torch with heights 588 DM. Rather we're stuck under cutoff throwing back tropical moisture. We would be torching like crazy. Instead, a lot of interests in the immediate area see highs only in the 50s for many of the rainy days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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