October 2013 Observations & Discussions

[Rtd208]

October looks to start off a bit on the mild side.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[uncle W]

October records and averages from NYC...


decade....Ave.......high..low......Ave.max/min...max...min......Rainfall
1870's.....55.5.......60.3....50.6...........................................3.55"
1880's.....53.9.......58.8....48.6......77.0...34.1......87...29......3.17"
1890's.....55.5.......59.5....52.5......77.4...37.3......87...34......3.59"
1900's.....57.2.......61.3....52.7......77.1...37.5......82...32......4.39"
1910's.....57.9.......59.4....53.0......80.1...37.1......87...32......4.41"
1920's.....56.8.......61.1....50.6......81.4...35.3......90...29......3.39"
1930's.....57.4.......61.3....54.5......81.2...36.3......91...28......3.22"
1940's.....58.7.......63.6....53.8......84.9...37.8......94...30......2.42"
1950's.....58.6.......61.7....55.5......83.6...38.0......88...33......3.68"
1960's.....58.2.......61.8....55.0......82.2...35.3......86...31......2.45"
1970's.....56.9.......62.7....52.9......78.1...35.7......88...29......3.88"
1980's.....57.0.......61.8....52.8......78.5...37.2......84...31......4.01"
1990's.....57.7.......61.9....54.5......79.1...38.8......86...34......3.85"
2000's.....57.0.......63.6....55.0......79.1...38.1......87...36......5.23"

2010's.....57.7.......58.1....57.1......79.0...37.7......84...33......4.64"

1870---
2009.......56.8..............................80.0...36.8......................3.66"
1980---
2009.......57.2..............................78.9...38.0......................4.36"

Warmest...
63.6 in 1947
63.6 in 2007
63.1 in 1949
62.7 in 1971
61.9 in 1990
Coolest...
48.6 in 1888
49.7 in 1889
50.6 in 1925
50.6 in 1876
50.9 in 1869
wettest"...
16.73 in 2005
13.31 in 1903
12.97 in 1913
09.00 in 1927
08.63 in 1983
driest...
0.14 in 1963
0.28 in 1924
0.43 in 1879
0.59 in 1892
0.66 in 2001
0.66 in 1909
Snowiest"...
2.9 in 2011
0.8 in 1925
0.5 in 1876
0.5 in 1952
Hottest max..
94 in 1941 10/5
91 in 1939 10/10
90 in 1927 10/2
90 in 1941 10/6
90 in 1938 10/17
89 in 1922 10/5
Coolest monthly max...
66 in 1888
70 in 1894
70 in 1895
70 in 1977
71 in 1981
Coldest min...
28 in 1936 10/27
29 in 1879 10/25
29 in 1976 10/27
29 in 1976 10/28
29 in 1925 10/31
29 in 1887 10/31
warmest monthly min...
45 in 1946
45 in 1971
44 in 2004
43 in 1994
43 in 1927

[Snow_Miser]

Euro has a pretty nice trough in the east next weekend.

[winterwarlock]

I would say that leaf color is a good 7-8 days or so ahead of schedule thus far

[SACRUS]

Record highs for tue - thu..  the coming warmth will likely fall short of most records by several degrees.

 

 

NYC:

 

10/1: 88 (1927)

10/2: 90 (1927)

10/3: 87 (1919)

 

EWR;

10/1: 85 (1986)

10/2: 86 (2002)

10/3: 85 (1950)

 

 

JFK:

10/1: 85 (1986)

10/2: 82 (2002)

10/3: 84 (2002)

 

 

LGA:

10/1: 87 (1950)

10/2: 87 (2002)

10/3: 85 (2000)

[Weathergun]

I think we see some mid 80s on Wednesday. Models show 850mb temps 16C+, light west winds and fairly low dews. Record highs that day are also within reach.

[Guest Pamela]

Upton predicting a high of 82 F on Wednesday at Central Park...around 10 degrees above normal.  Of course, in the Texas-like climate of eastern New Jersey, a few spots will likely be 3 or 4 degrees hotter. 

[SACRUS]

ECM going bonkers with ridging next week after the trough moves through.  Its had this bias at times  in the day 7 - 10 range the last few months.  Builds heights 588 - 592dm the middle.end of next week over the east coast,  will be interesting to track - i havent seen the ensembles.

[TwcMan]

Interesting to see those record highs for 2002, considering that October ended up below avg,(correct me if I'm wrong)and how the winter ended up.

[SnoSki14]

ECM going bonkers with ridging next week after the trough moves through.  Its had this bias at times  in the day 7 - 10 range the last few months.  Builds heights 588 - 592dm the middle.end of next week over the east coast,  will be interesting to track - i havent seen the ensembles.

 

Well if the month is going to be above normal then let's go all the way and completely torch with record highs. 

[Stormlover74]

Well if the month is going to be above normal then let's go all the way and completely torch with record highs.

Let's not. We don't need to ruin the fall foliage with 80s all month.

[SnoSki14]

Let's not. We don't need to ruin the fall foliage with 80s all month.

 

That loss will be unfortunate as the foliage has started off wonderfully, but I fear it will either slow down significantly and/or the colors will be less than appealing. If we get those high mins especially, then part of our foliage will be in trouble. 

 

And the nice, enjoyable weather will get a lot more uncomfortable with mid 80s.

[Stormlover74]

That loss will be unfortunate as the foliage has started off wonderfully, but I fear it will either slow down significantly and/or the colors will be less than appealing. If we get those high mins especially, then part of our foliage will be in trouble.

And the nice, enjoyable weather will get a lot more uncomfortable with mid 80s.

Not a few warm days and ending up +2 or +3. What we can't have is an extended stretch of extreme warmth like 2007

[SnoSki14]

The latest gfs certainly shows a prolonged warm to well above normal stretch. The cold front doesn't even drop us to normal, we stay above the entire time. 

[winterwarlock]

Let's not. We don't need to ruin the fall foliage with 80s all month.

 

 

such is life

[WE GOT HIM]

Let's not. We don't need to ruin the fall foliage with 80s all month.

It would have been nice to have some heat in August, I couldn't even enjoy the pool, which has subsequently been closed...

[IsentropicLift]

Loving the shorts in October. I wish it stayed this warm until December. Unless it's snowing I have no use for cold.

[TWCCraig]

Loving the shorts in October. I wish it stayed this warm until December. Unless it's snowing I have no use for cold.

 

I agree.

[SnoSki14]

Warm is fine but not 80s in October although I prefer cold weather so I wish we were below normal.

[IsentropicLift]

I agree.

I know some people will argue that a warm fall will keep SST warmer than normal and cause coastal areas mixing problems come winter. I would like to see one piece of evidence that correlates above average fall temps leading to above average SST during the winter leading to above normal mixing problems at the coast.

[Guest Pamela]

 I would like to see one piece of evidence that correlates above average fall temps leading to above average SST during the winter leading to above normal mixing problems at the coast.

 

We call that a hypothetical syllogism...

[IsentropicLift]

We call that a hypothetical syllogism...

I call it BS. It can be 75 degrees one day and snow the next. I've seen it happen here before. 70's here in February are not that uncommon. Usually when Long Island is in the rain on a coastal it means I'm getting buried due to a tucked in track. Further offshore tracks usualky keep the best deform banding to my east. One man's jackpot is another's demise. Does depend on the year though.

[Guest Pamela]

I know some people will argue that a warm fall will keep SST warmer than normal and cause coastal areas mixing problems come winter. I would like to see one piece of evidence that correlates above average fall temps leading to above average SST during the winter leading to above normal mixing problems at the coast.

I think it is more or less a given that the higher the ocean water temperature; the better chance of some warm air working onshore in a coastal storm and potentially changing snow to rain...Upton averages over 10 inches of snow in February despite it being the shortest and one of the driest months...December tends to be a good deal less snowy.  But warm autumn or not, there will always be potential for mixing along the coast straight up through the Canadian Maritime provinces...though the colder it is, the quicker water temps will drop off; potentially decreasing the degree of warm air intrusions from off the water.

[IsentropicLift]

I think it is more or less a given that the higher the ocean water temperature; the better chance of some warm air working onshore in a coastal storm and potentially changing snow to rain...Upton averages over 10 inches of snow in February despite it being the shortest and one of the driest months...December tends to be a good deal less snowy. But warm autumn or not, there will always be potential for mixing along the coast straight up through the Canadian Maritime provinces...though the colder it is, the quicker water temps will drop off; potentially decreasing the degree of warm air intrusions from off the water.

The coast will always have mixing issues because the ocean temps will almost always be above freezing except during the coldest winters. I think it's more track dependent than anything else for the immediate coast.

[Guest Pamela]

 70's here in February are not that uncommon.

The hottest February day on record at WSO Upton is 69.5 F...though I'm sure over Jersey...it might have tipped 70 F a few times. 

[uncle W]

I wouldn't worry to much about a mild October...some of our snowiest winters had a warm October...1995-96 and 1947-48 had warm Octobers and they are the top two snowiest winters on record...October average temperature is 57.2...The noaa normal is 56.9 smoothed...56.8 is the long term average...

season......Oct......Nov......Dec-Feb...

1946-47...+4.8.....+2.8.....-0.7

1947-48...+6.7......-3.5.....-5.5

1948-49....-0.2.....+4.7....+3.0

1955-56...+2.9......-3.4.....-2.8

1957-58....-0.7.....+1.7.....-2-2

1959-60...+2.9......-1.9....+0.7

1960-61...+1.2.....+2.0.....-3.8

1963-64...+4.9.....+2.7.....-2.2

1966-67....-0.7.....+1.2.....-1.4

1968-69...+3.6......-0.8.....-2.6

1977-78....-2.0......-0.4.....-5.2

1978-79....-2.0.....+0.1.....-2.8

1982-83...+1.6.....+2.7....+2.4

1992-93....-2.4......-1.2....+0.4

1993-94....-0.9.....+1.1.....-4.3

1995-96...+4.7......-4.1.....-3.2

2000-01...+0.1......-2.4.....-2.0

2002-03....-1.7......-1.7.....-4.3

2003-04....-1.8.....+2.3.....-3.1

2004-05....-0.9.....+0.5.....-0.1

2005-06...+1.0.....+1.9....+1.8

2008-09....-1.8......-1.9.....-1.3

2009-10....-1.9.....+3.5.....-1.7

2010-11...+1.2.....+0.2.....-2.8

2012-13...+1.1......-3.8....+1.2

12 of 25 Octobers had an average temperature +1.0 or higher...seven were -1.0 or lower...six were less than one degree from normal...

11 of 25 Novembers were +1.0 or higher...nine were -1.0 or lower...five were with in one degree from normal...

five had a mild October and November +1.0 or higher...three had an October and November both 1.0 or lower...

[Guest Pamela]

The coast will always have mixing issues because the ocean temps will almost always be above freezing except during the coldest winters. I think it's more track dependent than anything else for the immediate coast.

Well even in the coldest winters...save for maybe a few harbors, the water temps are *always* above freezing.  However I do most certainly agree with you when you assert that the track of the storm outweighs almost all other considerations; such as last year's November snow or the one in November 1989.

[Guest Pamela]

I think there was a big cyclone offshore during the 1990's....either in October or November...was unusually cold and was bringing snow to Upstate NY...the circulation was so powerful that warm air was brought in off the Atlantic so far that it made it all the way to Buffalo; changing their snow over to rain. 

[bluewave]

The persistent WAR pattern from around 4-15 through July is making a return after taking

a two month break. The last few months the ridge was located over the Central and Eastern

Atlantic.

 

 

 

 

 

[winterwarlock]

its going to be an incredible week ahead, the best of the year, possibly the best in peoples lives