Models..

[bluewave]

models..

[tacoman25]

Someone needs to tell the Metoffice that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is a myth perpetrated by deniers.

[Kaner587]

They must be reading the script from the day after tomorrow :0

But in all seriousness that's an interesting find. I wonder what the implications would be if this were to come to fruition.

[ORH_wxman]

Hopefully the HadGEM3 models do better than the HadGEM2 models which were horrible. They are forecasting continued cooling of Antarctica and the surrounding southern ocean..if that occurs, it is going to be quite the difference from other spots on the globe as the region has already seen a 30 year cooling trend (and a substantial one in the southern ocean)

 

I'm a bit skeptical of the predicted warming in the western North American regions most affected by the PDO. Though these are only 5 year forecasts...there is likely to be a lot more noise than what the model indicates given the short time frame and the fact that the forecast is a blend of models in the HadGEM3 suite.

[Snow_Miser]

The HadGEM3 model predicts far less warming in the next 5 years than it's previous counterparts.

 

[tacoman25]

The HadGEM3 model predicts far less warming in the next 5 years than it's previous counterparts.

 

 

 

When was the red line one initialized?

[Snow_Miser]

When was the red line one initialized?

It looks like 2010 on that chart.

[tacoman25]

It looks like 2010 on that chart.

 

Yeah, that's pretty horrible.

[Snow_Miser]

Yeah, that's pretty horrible.

 

I just find it so remarkable how even after their horrible failure in 2010, they still predicted rapid warming to suddenly occur in 2011. When will some finally let go of their pet theories?

[The_Global_Warmer]

Someone needs to tell the Metoffice that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is a myth perpetrated by deniers.

 

 

Did you check and see if their model has OHC for the Atlantic and realistic movements of the under water currents.

 

 

If not the cooling would come from weather patterns

[The_Global_Warmer]

It could be the start of a larger change.  But if it's not from the ocean then it's modeled as a weather change.

 

 

Modeling the Oceans with detailed enough OHC at high enough resolution and depths would be hard but can be done  using the 2005-2013 argo data. As a start and base.

 

Later this evening I will look into this and see if they did include a real OHC model within their main model

[The_Global_Warmer]

I have found nothing on a ocean ohc model involved. 

 

 

 

 

But the met their talked about it.  They must run a simulation of OHC/modeled ocean currents or he just misspoke.