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October 2013 General Discussion


snowlover2

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This October so far looks like it's well on its way to matching the Octotorch of 2007.  Of course, most remember what happened the following winter.  It shows how easy it is for a month to torch.  We had almost no sun for three days of the first five day torch, yet posted a +10F anomaly, the opposite of which we could only dream to post.

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Some of you may know how I enjoy 'cycling weather patterns', well, teleconnections cycle too, right?! I am attempting to display their cyclic behavior.

 

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1314/charts-tele.html

 

This data will be updated everyday like the station/map/chart data will be. I am about a 1-1.5 weeks away from going live. Already late September and early October are creating interestingly new patterns. Just a matter of time.

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This October so far looks like it's well on its way to matching the Octotorch of 2007.  Of course, most remember what happened the following winter.  It shows how easy it is for a month to torch.  We had almost no sun for three days of the first five day torch, yet posted a +10F anomaly, the opposite of which we could only dream to post.

 

Snow, happened. This was "winter" imby. (http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wsd.html)

 

actualwinter_osh_show_28004_image013.gif

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This October so far looks like it's well on its way to matching the Octotorch of 2007.  Of course, most remember what happened the following winter.  It shows how easy it is for a month to torch.  We had almost no sun for three days of the first five day torch, yet posted a +10F anomaly, the opposite of which we could only dream to post.

 

We're not that warm! We're mild (and wetter than normal), but nothing that unusual. +7.35° here 1-6th.

 

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This October so far looks like it's well on its way to matching the Octotorch of 2007.  Of course, most remember what happened the following winter.  It shows how easy it is for a month to torch.  We had almost no sun for three days of the first five day torch, yet posted a +10F anomaly, the opposite of which we could only dream to post.

 

A southern flow and solid cloud cover can result in a larger daily warm anomaly than a sunny day and clear night sky. When your average low is 45 and you end up with a low of 65, that's much more of a contributor to that positive anomaly than a 5-10 degree above average high temp the sun would result in. 

 

You do know that the majority of your monthly anomalies this year have been negative, right?

 

BTW, looks like troughing will dominate the eastern half of the continent after about 5-7 days.

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Quite the blustery day today, with Environment Canada issuing a special weather statement for wind gusts in the 70-80 km/h range. Not sure we had anything that high IMBY in terms of gusts but likely held sustained winds around 30-35 km/h.

 

The air has that cool, crisp autumn smell of the season's detritus beginning to form.

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When the cold fronts pass the progressively get more and more intense as the winter season approaches.  Temperatures will rebound but winter is becoming the more predominate weather feature from here on in.

 

Today was beautiful and I did not miss the humidity.... Next week is time to get the snow machines ready for the plowing season.

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Quite the blustery day today, with Environment Canada issuing a special weather statement for wind gusts in the 70-80 km/h range. Not sure we had anything that high IMBY in terms of gusts but likely held sustained winds around 30-35 km/h.

 

The air has that cool, crisp autumn smell of the season's detritus beginning to form.

 

I think the Waterloo Airport reported a 56kmh'er. Was windy, and there is definitely the smell of autumn in the air today. Even though it's been sunny and around 20C for a few weeks now, almost all foliage has changed over to the yellows and reds. Lots of leaves came down today in the wind.

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A southern flow and solid cloud cover can result in a larger daily warm anomaly than a sunny day and clear night sky. When your average low is 45 and you end up with a low of 65, that's much more of a contributor to that positive anomaly than a 5-10 degree above average high temp the sun would result in. 

 

You do know that the majority of your monthly anomalies this year have been negative, right?

 

BTW, looks like troughing will dominate the eastern half of the continent after about 5-7 days.

 

That is a good point, but I would still think normally the lack of surface heat during the day should balance or slightly outweigh lack of cooling overnight due to thick cloud cover. 

 

Your second comment is right as well, but the overall year's temperature is slightly below average, thanks to the below average months being barely below with the exceptions of March and April.  Bottom line, people have been commenting on how cool this year has been, but the fact that it doesn't hold a candle to the crazy warm anomalies 2012 had illustrates how the norm has been shifted a degree or two in the last couple decades.  +1.9, -1.8, -5.0, -2.1, 0.5, -1.1, 0.3, 0.2, and 1.4 with an almost certain positive anomaly this month isn't exactly far off from average.  In fact, if this month comes in positive, fwiw, only four of the ten months will have been below average, though the overall is slightly below.  It would be more disturbing if I lived in the Northeast or Mid Atlantic and had less margin for error in terms of cold temps and winter systems, but it is still worth a note.

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it has cooled to the upper 30's this morning.... the stars look amazing!

had graupel a couple times during heavier lake showers yesterday afternoon. about 2 weeks behind last years first graupel... lol

it's very wet here. can't wait to see the next drought monitor.... oh, wait....

Edit: 6:50 am.... Temp was 33 on my way to work in East Jordan

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Cyclone-

 

Haven't came near 30F's yet here either....  going to be a late frost this year...  Its all this south wind screwing things up...  Can't get more then a day of north winds it would seem.

 

I wouldnt mind seeing a few more inches of rain this month...  still have some catching up to do...and once the ground does freeze, its game over for trying to recharge the ground water.

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Nice to see signs of the torch being replaced later this month.   This warm air has been nice but its time to get the hunting gear on and Sparty On is itching to sport his newest cold wear 

I'm going to look up the date later, but I nearly vomited from heat exhaustion trying to climb into my blind about a decade ago, it was about 60 degrees in the morning.

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Dropped to the mid 40Fs...house is really cooling down over night now...had 66f in here this morning...little chilly.

 

I need to insulate the walls of our home...  Never done it before, but plan on trying here in the next few weeks..  you do it from the outside (drill holes in each stud cavity and pump in cellulose)... 

 

Wind has really picked up here..  

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