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October 2013 General Discussion


snowlover2

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Yeah, many of the epic winters had warm Octobers and even Novembers.  I just hope winter doesn't wait until mid or late December again to set in (in terms of the first decent wintry system).

 

Same.... I would rather have it start around Dec 1st and end on March 1st, unlike last year where it dragged on but started late. Winter last year started on Dec 20th IMO.

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I am thinkiintg we get a 2-3 week PV in Southern Canada to around the Hudson in late Dec-Jan.

But also Pacific torching around that. But heavy winter during the best solar winter period. Like Dec 20th to Feb 10th.

We will see.

Sibera is running wild. We will continue to go below normal snow cover. But Siberia is getting rocked. Way South

That is China, Mongolia, Kazakhstan. To the South of Russia. I am sure Russians are tired of this weather.

2013276.png

The placement of the NAO blocking over the past few years has put most of Europe and Russia in the hot spot in terms of great winter weather, while us in the torch. Last winter was half and half besides a month or two, it wasn't all that great and let's not forget, 09 and 11-12. Though I think your area faired well in 09-10?

Based on my pre analysis; but with the government pages shut down I'd post maps but I don't think ENSO looks to be a major factor this winter as its been back and forth between warm and cold but the QBO, solar activity and the Pacific water anomalies you posted has my attention. The snow cover anomalies are far more important in the second half than the first but yeah your right the anomalies have been outrageous. What's your thoughts on how the Pacific behave in the winter? The AAO has been way below this year too.

In about 10-15 days the PNA should go positive combined with a neutral AO and NAO and that should allow Canada to build its snow cover anomaly.

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Feels like June outside. Had to turn on the AC for sleeping comfort. 

 

Same here. Last night I didn't want to touch the AC, but I paid for it with less sleep.

 

65° outside, and it's probably not going to move much overnight.

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Feels like June outside. Had to turn on the AC for sleeping comfort. 

 The cool wind anomalies off the Lake create good sleeping conditions in my area. Haven't had my A/C on since that heatwave spell back in September, lol.  Currently 59F here and with low level clouds

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Same here. Last night I didn't want to touch the AC, but I paid for it with less sleep.

 

65° outside, and it's probably not going to move much overnight.

 

Not bad around here, hanging around 60F and muggy/foggy, but 60 and humid is very doable.  Tomorrow looks somewhat interesting, though that talk is for the storm thread.

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The oceans control everything.    We got a huge blanket of snow raising albedo rapidly.  Causing massive atmospheric cooling.  Siberia is way below normal right now.  Otherwise the Earth is very warm.  We aren't allowed to post Weatherbell now.  But it shows major cold over Eurasia so far in October.  But the ssta look great for blocking later.

 

2013277.png

 

2013277.png

 

 

it's obvious the chart shows a lot of heat is in the NH waters.  But this heat should promote ridging.  Think of three large HP cells over the arctic basin, Northern Pacific, and NorthWestern Atlantic and Scandinavia that slides to Siberia. 

 

Massive PVS along Russia warm water arctic basin.

 

 

2alZ4Gr.gif?1

 

 

 

Isn't this a -NAO and +EPO?  Why are we so warm?

 

 

foppra3.gif?1

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WTH.  No snow with this one.  For anyone unless you are way way way up in elevation.  Good grief.  Look at those 15C+  Even warministas like me get sick of this.

 

 

 

My earliest snow on record is Oct 12th 2006, why should I or anyone to my south expect it to be snow?

You are unhinged man, if you are so unhappy living down south, move.

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Got up late, so I missed the fog. It's warm and humid out once again. Looking forward to tomorrow 50s.

 

I say bottle up the cold in Canada for most of October and then let it unleash when it has the chance to do some good later on.

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Whoa!!

 

GRR:

 

...HEAVY RAIN COULD BRING FLOODING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OVER TWO INCHES AN
HOUR COULD BRING FLOODING TODAY AND SUNDAY. PARTS OF BARRY AND
INGHAM COUNTIES GOT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW PLACES WILL SEE UP TO 5 OR 6 INCHES OF RAIN
BEFORE MONDAY

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It's good we got the storms Thursday night into Friday morning because the Friday night/Saturday fropa was completely dry around here.  The temp has fallen down to near 60 behind the front.  Early in the week it was looking like today would be very windy, but there is only a modest breeze.  There is no wind in the forecast for tomorrow, either, as the occluded low moves over the area.

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Had a few sprinkles but otherwise this will be a dry frontal passage.  Glad we got lucky with a few of those storm clusters Thursday. 

 

Dew still holding at 66, but just across the river the readings tank big time.  Only 39 at Ottumwa. 

 

When I first read the last sentence I thought you were saying the air temperature was 39° at Ottumwa! lol

 

Now that would be refreshing.

 

77/70 here.

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