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October 2013 General Discussion


snowlover2

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I don't know how exactly the last 2 weeks of October will play out, but our current +8℉ on the month will dissolve. My guess is we finish around 0 to +3 on the month.

 

Sitting at +1.9 In KLAN. Looks like a few above and a few below days to finish the month should cancel each other out... We started breaking down the positive at +8.

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ILX AFD this evening hinting at a possible Halloween severe threat as far north as central IL--and better yet  some much-needed rain.  I was tempted to start a severe thread for Wednesday night/Halloween for this subforum but was reluctant to at this time:

A lead wave is expected to eject out of the western U.S. trof byTuesday, and will bring us our first chance of showers/storms asit moves through. The main wave will become progressive bymidweek, with additional energy being ejected our way. Some ofthis energy will drive a warm front through the area on Wednesday,providing another risk of showers/storms after a relative lullTuesday night.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...The large progressive upperwave, and associated cold front, will come through the areaWednesday night into Thursday, accompanied by the highest chancesof showers/storms. The system is expected to be strong, and maypose a severe weather risk. However, there is still too muchspread in the details to determine the severe risk with anyconfidence for now.By the time the rainfall with this system departs Thursday night,most of forecast area is likely to have received 1-2 inches ofrainfall over the previous couple of days. This rainfall will be awelcome relief to the fairly dry conditions of the past fewmonths.
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