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October 2013 General Discussion


snowlover2

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Bo, you thinking a wet snowfall will hit your location before the trees are bare?

 

Some trees down here has lost most their leaves, others are really lagging behind it seems. 

 

High of 50° today.

Rain/snow is in the forecast later, but I think snow mostly for interior. Before any substantial cold arrives that gives me snow, I believe trees will be bare. After this weekends wind, there won't be much left. I'm concerned with the soft ground here more than anything.

High was 42, but should rise to 49 by 2am before crashing again.

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I just noticed this out of APX...

Not the evening to be on the lake.

 

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI637 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013LMZ344>346-260400-/O.CON.KAPX.SR.W.0001.131026T0000Z-131026T1500Z/SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-637 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY.* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED  INFORMATION.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONSRECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTERUNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPAREFOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND CONSIDERREMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND WAVESSUBSIDE.$$



			
		
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I believe Maple City, in the in the Leelanau Peninsula west of Traverse City, has the highest average snowfall in the lower. I think they average around 155" a season. Another area that does well is that 1500' high plateau just north west of Gaylord, they average around 150" a season. The Bear Lake area is great for snowmobiling for sure. They get good snow and have the elevation to keep it longer then areas to the east, like Grayling, or west, like Kalkaska, of them. The area north of M72, south of C38, west of US27 and east of 131 is a great winter play spot, great snow, some small lakes and lots of off trail areas to explore. The only problem I can really think of is there is a ton of sled traffic in that area. I personally prefer ridding south of M72, a little less snow on average but way less sleds and way more play areas.

 

Former NMI resident here. While Maple City MAY have the highest average, it is a fairly small region of higher totals. Its also not classic snow-machine territory. Lots of private land/farms vs. the miles of forested public lands and trail system inland of Kalkaska & Mancellona as you mention. And yes, I too preferred the "paths less travelled" when I was riding in my portion of the Pere Marquette State Forest. Those DNR trails were tore up and full of drunk sledders at least on weekends - horrible!

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Former NMI resident here. While Maple City MAY have the highest average, it is a fairly small region of higher totals. Its also not classic snow-machine territory. Lots of private land/farms vs. the miles of forested public lands and trail system inland of Kalkaska & Mancellona as you mention. And yes, I too preferred the "paths less travelled" when I was riding in my portion of the Pere Marquette State Forest. Those DNR trails were tore up and full of drunk sledders at least on weekends - horrible!

Best time to sled around here is Mondays and Tuesdays. I like the good ol boys trails. They may not be groomed but still fun to ride and snow stays deep enough.
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I was camping in a 3-season tent out in the Brighton State Rec area last night.

 

It got very windy last night and kept me half-awake from maybe 4am to 6am. A few of the gusts did a nice job half collapsing my tent.

 

Luckily it "popped" back out when the winds calmed.

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I wonder if Ohio/Eastern Michigan could see a gale with the cold front on Halloween night. The 12z GFS predicts a gale on Lake Huron with 55 kt winds in the boundary layer as the low moves NE of Sault Ste Marie on 06z November 1st. This would be just after midnight on Halloween, the scariest hour of the year, of course.

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Be on the lookout for a possible nice shelf cloud with the line moving through Semi to those of you further SE... I didn't get outside until just after it passed but I could definitely see a distinct low/high cloud line to my south.

Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk

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Be on the lookout for a possible nice shelf cloud with the line moving through Semi to those of you further SE... I didn't get outside until just after it passed but I could definitely see a distinct low/high cloud line to my south.

Sent from my HTCONE

Cell pic of a shelf cloud, and odd sight for a chilly Autumn day

3575-800.jpg

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Low of 31° here this morning. Pretty nice day so far.

Looks like a prolonged streach of easterly winds this week with showers. Just laid some sod, so that should be the ideas weather for it!

 

Some really strong winds at 850mb on Halloween for the western Lakes.

 

gfsUS_850_spd_090.gif

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There are still major differences with the "Hallobomb" storm (self-named) between the Euro and the op GFS. The 12z GFS still has a strong slp well north of Lake Superior by 0z Friday, while last night's Euro appears to form a secondary slp near the IL/WI border in the same timeframe.

 

I realize that bombogenesis is unlikely, just having some fun with this storm.

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Really too bad, as I think it's not all that far away from being a deep, bombing MW storm. It still looks decent, but compared to what's possible this time of year it's not impressive at all to me.

Yeah, it looks like a fairly routine fall type system as it stands now. Even the high wind potential doesn't look that impressive for most of us.

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