Snowstorms Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Yep, the 12z euro looks pretty interesting with the D5 wave... 35f line hugging southern shores of lake ontario. Would be a RN/SN mix situation for the GTA if it pans out before months end. By D6-8 the GFS has a strong CAD event across S On with a significant ice storm along the 401 corridor including the Northern parts of the GTA. The euro brings the wave much further west however, with a partial phase between the northern branch and SW trough ejection and a western GLC. Could be possible but I dont see it being anything major. In my opinion it looks to be a cold rain for just about everybody with areas far north having the best chance of snowfall or frozen precip. Again it depends on the temperature anomalies and how deep the trough digs in across California and when the phase occurs. If you look at the 500mb chart there is some phasing trying to occur with the PV across Hudson bay and a split jet stream. The energy digs in and if you go further down it seems like it picks up some tropical moisture and starts becoming a negatively tilted trough as a ridge begins developing off the coast with a HP in the Atlantic. This may create some low level cooling as it increases instability and wind shear (could be some nice TStorms in the SE). However, if you look across the West, esp with the re curving typhoons, the ridge begins moving further across the West and the cold anomalies begin retreating a bit further north as the NAO and AO rise (battle of the oceans). Add to that, it also shows a decently strong HP anomaly off the Atlantic Coast. Its days out and anything can change from now till then but I'm a doubting it considering It can go either way. Its an interesting set-up. I dont buy anything beyond 84 hours after learning from the past few years LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Only made it to 40 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 caught another rainbow in the same spot. Third one this week. "I saw the lovely arch Of rainbow span the sky, The gold sun burning As the rain swept by." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 42° here for a high. Completely clear out now. 35° and falling. Tonight might be the coldest night of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 32° already. Looks like a good 11 hours tonight with temperatures below freezing. Dewpoint about 24°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Im kind of mad I didnt get to see the fat flakes flying here yesterday....everyone else seemed to, but I was stuck at work with no windows in sight. Oh well...wont be long before the novelty goes from "ok, weve seen enough flakes...time for a measurable snow" lol. Today was the 3rd consecutive freeze at DTW, lowest of the season so far (29F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Im kind of mad I didnt get to see the fat flakes flying here yesterday....everyone else seemed to, but I was stuck at work with no windows in sight. Oh well...wont be long before the novelty goes from "ok, weve seen enough flakes...time for a measurable snow" lol. Today was the 3rd consecutive freeze at DTW, lowest of the season so far (29F). Thats nice, cooling the sfc down which is good for retaining snowfall on the ground. In my area, the consistent cloud cover at night and to a lesser effect the warm lake has kept temperatures relatively away from the freezing point. Even last night it stayed consistent around 32-34F. The heat build up during the day, followed by cloud cover at night keeps the temperatures stable at the SFC preventing upper cold air anomalies from sinking south. October snow is nice but November and December is when i really get in the winter mood. The avg snowfall in Toronto however runs from Oct-May, lol. Ready for another season man? Your thoughts and passion in the last few winters was always enlightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Already down to 27. As long as clouds stay away we should have no problem beating the season low so far of 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I got some clouds here. Been hanging around 33° for awhile. Looks like they'll pass on by before too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 MLI already at 24. Could see a few upper teens by daybreak in some of the favored sites. On the way home from work earlier was surprised to see the remnants of a big snowman still standing southeast of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Looks like the LAF ASOS temp sensor crapped the bed. Been consistently 10-20 degrees warmer than surrounding sites the last several hours. Maybe some homeless dude lit a pile of garbage nearby for warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Looks like the LAF ASOS temp sensor crapped the bed. Been consistently 10-20 degrees warmer than surrounding sites the last several hours. Maybe some homeless dude lit a pile of garbage nearby for warmth. Yep, this from Mike Ryan on NWSChat: "All...the temp sensor at LAF is erroneous and has been since around 7 pm last night. Unfortunately, this will impact the overnight low and daily average for both 10/24 and 10/25. We'll inform our techs first thing this morning." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN150 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT INDIANAPOLIS FOR OCTOBER 24...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 40 DEGREES ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 24TH SETTHE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR THE DATE. THE RECORD OF 41 DEGREES WASORIGINALLY SET IN 1937.TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA IN 1871. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 30 degrees currently here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I'm casually beginning to look for a cottage somewhere near Bear Lake in the Kalkaska area. I think that's the highest average snowfall spot in the Lower Peninsula. Lets see what they end up with, although it is more cellular and not banded. I believe Maple City, in the in the Leelanau Peninsula west of Traverse City, has the highest average snowfall in the lower. I think they average around 155" a season. Another area that does well is that 1500' high plateau just north west of Gaylord, they average around 150" a season. The Bear Lake area is great for snowmobiling for sure. They get good snow and have the elevation to keep it longer then areas to the east, like Grayling, or west, like Kalkaska, of them. The area north of M72, south of C38, west of US27 and east of 131 is a great winter play spot, great snow, some small lakes and lots of off trail areas to explore. The only problem I can really think of is there is a ton of sled traffic in that area. I personally prefer ridding south of M72, a little less snow on average but way less sleds and way more play areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I know my family that lives up by Mancelona there in Shanty Creek receives something like 110" a season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I wonder who gets the greatest average base through out Michigan during the winter months. Around sw Ontario one is lucky to see 6" last more than a few weeks before it gets torched!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Cold morning - all the way down to 26°. Lot of leaves fell off the trees this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 You'll be missed around here I'll still chime in with my thoughts when the bigger storms come round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 yeah, I didn't know SSC was in Edmonton...cool cool for you. sucks for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 cool for you. sucks for me. LOL, hows edmonton man? The weather forecast looks pretty dry....over the next 7 days. I think you should come back to the TDOT for a visit around Christmas, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I wonder who gets the greatest average base through out Michigan during the winter months. Around sw Ontario one is lucky to see 6" last more than a few weeks before it gets torched!! Your average high is 0℃ or maybe -1℃ on January 1st, it only takes a degree or two above and its melting.... Move up to Timmins and you won't see anymore torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Feels a whole lot warmer than the last 5 days here. Full sun and mid 40s! Looks like a nice, but below normal weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 YYZ low was 0.1C last night, so still no official freeze there. So close! Will likely be sometime into November now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 YYZ low was 0.1C last night, so still no official freeze there. So close! Will likely be sometime into November now. Well as far as my list goes I'm including anything at or below 32.9°. So 0.1°C counts. Probably just underneath the thermometer sensor it probably was 0.0°C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Well as far as my list goes I'm including anything at or below 32.9°. So 0.1°C counts. Probably just underneath the thermometer sensor it probably was 0.0°C. 32.9 is 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 YYZ low was 0.1C last night, so still no official freeze there. So close! Will likely be sometime into November now. YYZ was actually colder than YKF last night we were at 0.5 - but our first freeze was Sept 17th at -0.5 followed by -0.9 on the 23rd of Oct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 32.9 is 33F. If the NWS obs site says 32° as the low, that's what I note. I assume 32.4° is highest that can be considered a 32° low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Coldest temp of the season so far this morning of 23. Nice 30 degree rise to 53 this afternoon, but a bit windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 YYZ low was 0.1C last night, so still no official freeze there. So close! Will likely be sometime into November now. We still got frost the night before, but maybe tomorrow night or sunday night we have another shot again. Consistent cloud cover is keeping us from going below the freezing point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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