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October 2013 General Discussion


snowlover2

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Almost there, 33.3° now. Thinking about a 28-29° for a low.

Been able to keep my contacts in for over 10 hours without having allergies make my eyes itch - thus my contacts come out in a lot less time. Should see a lot less bugs from here on out.

 

29° at BUU.

Dewpoint 23° here. 

 

Edit: Officially 32° at 11:10pm

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Clinton down to 27 now.  Savanna at 29.  Dipped to 29 awhile ago, but back to 30. 

 

Seems like the temps drop in stages.  Fall a few degrees, level out, and then rise a degree.  Rinse and repeat.

 

It's done that here too. Occasional wind gusts are the prime suspect.

 

32.0°. 75%+ of the lawn now frost covered.

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It's done that here too. Occasional wind gusts are the prime suspect.

 

Yeah, the little micro aspects of radiational cooling can be pretty cool sometimes.  I think I figured out how we were so much cooler than some of the surrounding areas earlier.  Here in Erie we sit low in the Rock River valley.  That's a key factor in these cold drainage type of nights, but what I think allowed us to cool off so fast earlier tonight was a second valley that connects the RR valley to the Mississippi valley.  That valley runs from this area back west-northwest to the MS river.  The winds earlier this eve were very light, but from the west-northwest.  I wonder if that cold air drainage from that valley funneled right into this area, and connected with the drainage here in the RR valley.  That may have sort of maximized the drainage effect. 

 

Here's a map showing the valleys.

 

EDIT:  BTW, I remember hearing a long time ago that this second valley that runs through here used to connect the MS river to the Illinois river near Granville before something happened to change the flow into the QC.

j0ks.jpg

 

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Nice theory and explanation. 'm sure that side valley was something left over from the last ice age.

Make sense though.

 

31.2° now. 

28° at ENW.

About 37° by Alek and 34° at ORD.

 

Looking forward to when the EURO comes out at midnight.

 

Growing season was 160 days this year.

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I see the models have come back with the system around Halloween give or take a bit, this is a touch later than I originally thought but it still looks to be a significant system for the region with wind and rain and some backside snows. There could also end up being a decent severe outbreak across the South if current projections are correct especially the GFS>

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I see the models have come back with the system around Halloween give or take a bit, this is a touch later than I originally thought but it still looks to be a significant system for the region with wind and rain and some backside snows. There could also end up being a decent severe outbreak across the South if current projections are correct especially the GFS>

 

 

yep, decent signal for a classic fall system

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yep, decent signal for a classic fall system

 

Yes, +NAO/+AO/neutral to -PNA, certainly painting a picture for a seasonally strong system for the region. I do think though someone will get a good amount of precip with this as well, especially considering the Gulf is going to be open for business for that system.

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Yes, +NAO/+AO/neutral to -PNA, certainly painting a picture for a seasonally strong system for the region. I do think though someone will get a good amount of precip with this as well, especially considering the Gulf is going to be open for business for that system.

 

Certainly going to be a Western Lakes Cutter I would think based on the NAO/AO state I would think.  If we were going to have a shot at snow with a system like this, the NAO would be best turning negative at that point.

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Certainly going to be a Western Lakes Cutter I would think based on the NAO/AO state I would think.  If we were going to have a shot at snow with a system like this, the NAO would be best turning negative at that point.

If there is any snow with this system it is going to be the far NW reaches of the subforum.

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UHI + lake effects right there. Hit a low of 38 here this morning. Chilliest its felt in a while.

Yeah got down to about 37 last night and dewpoints are finally below zero which is good atmospherically for frozen precip but the ground is still warm as we haven't had a soild freeze yet. Could be possible tomorrow night or Thursday. Winds are strong today, out of the WSW.

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Yeah got down to about 37 last night and dewpoints are finally below zero which is good atmospherically for frozen precip but the ground is still warm as we haven't had a soild freeze yet. Could be possible tomorrow night or Thursday. Winds are strong today, out of the WSW.

I really don't think we have much of a chance for any flakes sadly. Mixed precip at best possible for areas outskirts north of the GTA, though. 

 

Freeze is possible, but I'm hesitant. Overnight lows have really struggled to hit forecasts, and if they do, it has been for a very short-lived period... we would need temps at or below freezing for at least a few hours.

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Yeah got down to about 37 last night and dewpoints are finally below zero which is good atmospherically for frozen precip but the ground is still warm as we haven't had a soild freeze yet. Could be possible tomorrow night or Thursday. Winds are strong today, out of the WSW.

 

Ground still quite warm without a hard freeze to date. If we're going to have one soon it'll probably have to be between now and Saturday when some southerly flow takes over. GFS fall system will warm us back up again heading into November if it verifies.

 

Very windy out today, seeing sustained winds around 15-18mph and gusting to 30mph.

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Ground still quite warm without a hard freeze to date. If we're going to have one soon it'll probably have to be between now and Saturday when some southerly flow takes over. GFS fall system will warm us back up again heading into November if it verifies.

 

Very windy out today, seeing sustained winds around 15-18mph and gusting to 30mph.

 

Absolutely. It feels drastically colder than it has been with that wind in your face. It's got a real bite to it.

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