wisconsinwx Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 1 month into met fall and we are below normal, although not by much... We have been the lucky ones in the subforum, western areas have been torching. Interestingly that happened last summer for Detroit as well, albeit it was still quite hot, but the core of the ridges were near the Western Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Bring it on, I'm more than ready for the allergy season to be over with! Wouldn't call it a torch around here this season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 The first day of October is looking pretty warm. The NAM shows 925mb temps in the low 20's Celsius while the GFS is slightly cooler. Low to mid 80's are likely so MKE might have a chance at the daily record of 86. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 The first day of October is looking pretty warm. The NAM shows 925mb temps in the low 20's Celsius while the GFS is slightly cooler. Low to mid 80's are likely so MKE might have a chance at the daily record of 86. If the wind isn't SE. Otherwise it'll probably be like yesterday. I got 80° in my point for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Yeah Tue looking pretty toasty. Some of the NAM models have even shown a few 90 degree readings over Iowa and into this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 I haven't seen any blues in the region on CPC's longer range outlooks for over a month, seriously. Time for that to change, even the current 6-10 day outlook has warmer than normal conditions through most of the northern tier. Not buying the Euro I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 I haven't seen any blues in the region on CPC's longer range outlooks for over a month, seriously. Time for that to change, even the current 6-10 day outlook has warmer than normal conditions through most of the northern tier. Not buying the Euro I think. The CPC modeling has a warm bias intentionally built in. Look at the next year of CPC maps, they are ONLY above normal. Locally 10 out of my last 14 months have been below normal. If you could see the archive, 14 out of 14 months would be shown as above normal on the long term outlook. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3 OCN - OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS - A FORECAST BASED ON PERSISTING THE AVERAGE OF THE LAST 10 YEARS FOR TEMPERATURE AND THE LAST 15 YEARS FOR PRECIPITATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 12z models are farther north with the late week storm, with a very quick hit of colder air. The 12z Euro has the coldest morning(Saturday) only dropping to the 40s across the region, followed by a surge back into the 70s (at least here in the west) by Monday. The GFS is clearer and calmer, allowing for possible frost down into DLL's area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 This would nice... need to get the freezing line a bit further south with calm winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 The CPC modeling has a warm bias intentionally built in. Look at the next year of CPC maps, they are ONLY above normal. Locally 10 out of my last 14 months have been below normal. If you could see the archive, 14 out of 14 months would be shown as above normal on the long term outlook. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3 OCN - OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS - A FORECAST BASED ON PERSISTING THE AVERAGE OF THE LAST 10 YEARS FOR TEMPERATURE AND THE LAST 15 YEARS FOR PRECIPITATION. They were pretty accurate for much of the summer, showing numerous deep troughs modeled well with the blue shading. The last month, though, it has literally been torchy each daily update, almost without fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 It will be interesting to see if the models can hold onto this storm. Looks like a huge wind maker. 994mb into MQT Saturday midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Storm for the end of the week looks much more typical of what we would see in early Oct compared to the one shown earlier ripping up through Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Yeah...just on time. Big old stinky wind storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Right over LSE brother is flying out of MSP on Sat...might be a little windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Storm for the end of the week looks much more typical of what we would see in early Oct compared to the one shown earlier ripping up through Indiana. Yeah I completely agree, I would also not sleep on the severe potential with this one for the region. The wind fields are very good and with several days of warmth and a moist flow off of the Gulf of Mexico, I would not be surprised to see instability parameters go upward as we progress into later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Yeah I completely agree, I would also not sleep on the severe potential with this one for the region. The wind fields are very good and with several days of warmth and moist flow off of the Gulf of Mexico, I would not be surprised to see instability parameters go upward as we progress into later in the week. Heck yeah, this is looking mighty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Heck yeah, this is looking mighty interesting. It has been a while since we had something interesting to track severe wise for the region, I look forward to this potential, and the subsequent ones this fall, the Pacific Jet is very strong this fall and could lead to several chances going forward into early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 The CPC modeling has a warm bias intentionally built in. Look at the next year of CPC maps, they are ONLY above normal. Locally 10 out of my last 14 months have been below normal. If you could see the archive, 14 out of 14 months would be shown as above normal on the long term outlook. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3 OCN - OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS - A FORECAST BASED ON PERSISTING THE AVERAGE OF THE LAST 10 YEARS FOR TEMPERATURE AND THE LAST 15 YEARS FOR PRECIPITATION. Alright, I'm gonna try to explain this so maybe it won't keep coming up. One of the meteorologists addressed this at one of the board's conferences several years ago. I don't want to misquote him but basically the longer range outlooks are heavily influenced by trends in recent years. The farther out you go in time (i.e. months), the less reliable signals/indices there are to formulate a forecast. Personally, I almost never look at anything beyond a few months. It's pretty much a waste of time even if it only takes seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Alright, I'm gonna try to explain this so maybe it won't keep coming up. One of the meteorologists addressed this at one of the board's conferences several years ago. I don't want to misquote him but basically the longer range outlooks are heavily influenced by trends in recent years. The farther out you go in time (i.e. months), the less reliable signals/indices there are to formulate a forecast. Personally, I almost never look at anything beyond a few months. It's pretty much a waste of time even if it only takes seconds. I agree with this, the most I would go out is about 3-5 months and even then whatever you see is subject to refinement as you get closer to the time period. It is however not a conspiracy that a few are trying to hint at that the CPC outlooks are bias toward warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Mid 50s currently here. Pretty nice out considering the time of year. Noticed the dewpoints creeping up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 I don't think we are hitting 80 today, not with this fog we have right now, currently 1/8th of mile at KDTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Today just goes to show that we are in October now and not July with the staying power of the fog/stratus. DET is still clear as of 11 AM with temps approaching 70*F (compared to DTW which has dense fog and temps still below 60*F). Typically, at this point in the heating cycle, I wouldn't even be worried about the fog/stratus advecting into DET, but the satellite continues to suggest otherwise, as well as the dewpoints which have risen to 60*F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Such a beautiful day. 67 out, may max out at 75 I think. Stuck at work til 12:30 but after that outside the rest if the day!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Don't think will hit 80° either with all this stratus. It's mild and breezy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 1pm and the clouds are just now beating it. At 73° right now. Weatherbug high is now 77° for this afternoon. Heights on Sunday via WGN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 The Euro sure is flopping all over the place with the pattern in the later period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Warm day, made 83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Models overdid the warming today. Likely due to all the stratus until 1pm today. High 77° today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 All the wx models averaged together are producing pretty good rains in the metro the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Nice aurora display going on right now, with reports across numerous states. Some awesome shots coming in from N. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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