Stebo Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Pretty cool frontal passage occurring right now, SE of the airport the visibility is around 5SM and SW it is 10SM, also the ceiling level is about to jump 2000 feet with the passage, pretty dramatic to see. Looking SE Looking SSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 The interesting thing I see in the models might come a few days before Halloween, a strong trough dives into the 4 corners and then ejects out and strengthens, if anyone is going to get a snowstorm (greater than a couple of inches) before Halloween, it would be with that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Also, I can't recall recently such a widespread look to the cold in an October... If it plays out of course, but the gfs and euro are virtually the same on the level of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Also, I can't recall recently such a widespread look to the cold in an October... If it plays out of course, but the gfs and euro are virtually the same on the level of cold. The more surprising thing to me is the reinforcing shots that are shown in the mid to long range. It is basically like we are going from Summer to Winter in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 168 euro is just brutal... single digits in MN/WI??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 THE GFS SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -6 CACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWFIS A LITTLE WARMER SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -3 TO -5 CRANGE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGIONGOING INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATETUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRINGSOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COULD FALLTO AROUND -10C BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEWELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHSMAINLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FARSOUTHWEST WISCONSIN POSSIBLY REACHING 50 DEGREES. PLAN ON OVERNIGHTLOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S. La Crosse mentions accumulations next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Even NWS Buffalo entertaining LES Tuesday/Wednesday Hard to believe given I've been at 60F for the past 12 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 THE GFS SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -6 C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WARMER SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -3 TO -5 C RANGE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO AROUND -10C BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN POSSIBLY REACHING 50 DEGREES. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S. La Crosse mentions accumulations next week... Not seeing -10c at 850 there until Friday next week which is 9 days out, the models tend to be about 1-3c too cold at that range so I would suspect that -7 to -9c will verify, which is still pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 168 euro is just brutal... single digits in MN/WI??? Met, I doubt it will get as cold as the Euro advertised, there's hardly any snow cover across the north, very sporadic if anything. I do believe there will be below normal anomalies but unless we can build a nice decent snowpack across the north it won't last and will be modified as it progresses south and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 The more surprising thing to me is the reinforcing shots that are shown in the mid to long range. It is basically like we are going from Summer to Winter in some places. Reading this in the water truck about to start a day of washing. Yet to start thinking about snow and winter type weather. Perhaps its time to put a rush on getting stuff ready, ntm close the pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 La Crosse mentions flakes even this weekend overnight...so we'll see. The Euro has shown that super cold at day 7 in the past only to back off...so its wait and see. If a snowcover can get laid down to the north, i guess anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 La Crosse mentions flakes even this weekend overnight...so we'll see. The Euro has shown that super cold at day 7 in the past only to back off...so its wait and see. If a snowcover can get laid down to the north, i guess anything is possible. Given the widespread snowfall expected across most of Northwestern Ontario all weekend... anything really is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Nice pictures on the last page Stebo. Ceilings have been lowering here today as well. Very cool out now, at 50°. Been a few sprinkles around as well. Edit: Going to have to test out the furnace tonight. House is down to 60°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Made it up to 68F today in the warm sector, cold front pushing in now with some moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 say hello to winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 +6℉ departure to chew away at, 15 days to do it. I like my 0-3℉ call, but I think 0℉ is more likely that +3℉. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 +6℉ departure to chew away at, 15 days to do it. I like my 0-3℉ call, but I think 0℉ is more likely that +3℉. Yeah will be chewing away at these departure every day in the next week at least. GFS shows a clipper with snow on 10/23! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Not a chance, no model is showing this and it only gets cold enough for the potential of a rain/snow mix in the Northern Lakes. I think you are making the mistake of looking at 0c at 850 and thinking there will be snow chances. At this time of year you need probably -5c at 850mb, I mean if you are lucky maybe -3c but definitely not 0c at 850c. Someone mentioned the October 1989 storm earlier in the thread...here's what that looked like. 850 mb temps were well below zero and even so, low level temps were marginal and it was a wet snow. I would imagine it would be very difficult to get away with 850 mb temps of like -2 or -3 at this time of year. Perhaps if a system was very well developed and if it was night but even then it may be iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Someone mentioned the October 1989 storm earlier in the thread...here's what that looked like. 850 mb temps were well below zero and even so, low level temps were marginal and it was a wet snow. I would imagine it would be very difficult to get away with 850 mb temps of like -2 or -3 at this time of year. Perhaps if a system was very well developed and if it was night but even then it may be iffy. Yeah, I mean trust me I wouldn't mind early snow but I think some don't realize just how difficult it is to get snow around the Lakes this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 I'm thinking 850's were in the - 6° to - 8° range in '89, but surface temps hovered around freezing. Ended up with 8 inches of cement here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 That's impressive seeing the -10°C line running through Milwaukee! I think this area got like 4-5" out of that storm. I was in 2nd grade then. ...one of the few storms I remember that far back. Remember seeing trees caked with snow with orange and red leaves showing through. Temperature going no where near 60° today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Latest Euro is the coldest run yet for the region. It has daily freezes for many spots beginning day 5. Next Wednesday it has mid 20s here, and it tends to run too warm on the good cooling nights. Low 20s would certainly be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 The sky has been a solid sheet of grey all day today. Temps have gone nowhere. Held in the low 50s all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 GFS and GEM give Green Bay and Minneapolis a 2-4 inches of snow on Wednesday morning 68F outside right now, damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 GFS and GEM give Green Bay and Minneapolis a 2-4 inches of snow on Wednesday morning 68F outside right now, damn! That would be impressive! Only 53° here today. Zero sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 CBS 58 Milwaukee's forecast has the big plunge occurring late Monday, with a high of 42 on Tuesday and a mix possible. Given the projections atm of being on the northern fringe of a potential clipper, with 850s in the neighborhood of -5C, I wouldn't be surprised to see a rain/snow mix or brief periods of all snow, at least on Tuesday or Wednesday nights of next week depending on the timing of said system. Likely to change, but the presence of a clipper seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 APX: woo hoo! THAT WE FINALLY GET COLD ENOUGH/FREEZING LEVELS LOW ENOUGH TO ADDSNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR INTERIOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WELL AWAY FROMTHE WARMER MARINE INFLUENCES...FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT (AND LIKELYTHROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS WELL). SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW NOT OUT OFTHE QUESTION...BUT WILL NOT WORRY ABOUT THOSE DETAILS THIS FAR INADVANCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Quote just heard on a local weathercast: "And it will get to 34 on Tuesday night, so we will see a hard freeze then" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 CBS 58 Milwaukee's forecast has the big plunge occurring late Monday, with a high of 42 on Tuesday and a mix possible. Given the projections atm of being on the northern fringe of a potential clipper, with 850s in the neighborhood of -5C, I wouldn't be surprised to see a rain/snow mix or brief periods of all snow, at least on Tuesday or Wednesday nights of next week depending on the timing of said system. Likely to change, but the presence of a clipper seems likely. We have to start worrying about the lake influence if winds are blowing onshore for this system. DLL would see some snow on Morning morning if the 18z GFS has any clue. Too warm over this way for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 We have to start worrying about the lake influence if winds are blowing onshore for this system. DLL would see some snow on Morning morning if the 18z GFS has any clue. Too warm over this way for snow. Sure, but when we're talking about a rain/snow mix vs rain, I don't feel like much is being missed anyway. The winds will be on the light side since this isn't an intense low pressure system, a weakish clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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