Stebo Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 In reality it's not going to be exciting and there isn't going to be an active storm track for the next week+. Yeah, wrong time of year to get this setup. If it were later we would be talking snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Yeah, wrong time of year to get this setup. If it were later we would be talking snow. Sure, but even seeing the first flakes in October is exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Sure, but even seeing the first flakes in October is exciting. Not really, especially if it don't amount to anything, and right now I think no one South of 45N sees any flakes anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Not really, especially if it don't amount to anything, and right now I think no one South of 45N sees any flakes anyways. Even Milwaukee's 7 day forecast for Saturday on one of our local stations has flakes mixing in for Saturday evening potentially. I don't expect significant accumulation for the next two week pattern, but this still seems to be our best chance for accumulating October snow we've had in awhile if we can get the timing right in the next two weeks (at night). Even seeing a nice accumulating snow event for the Northwoods would be a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 In reality it's not going to be exciting and there isn't going to be an active storm track for the next week+. Yeah temperatures aren't supportive for snow, just cold chilly rains. Maybe some dustings at higher elevations from LES if the winds are conductive. I do however think, we'll see some below seasonal anomalies centered in the Midwest with more modified temperatures in the East. The MJO could possibly propagate to phases 8-1-2 through the end of the month though I believe by November we'll see a return of seasonal temps to above normal anomalies as the MJO propagates to phases 3-4. The typhoon in the Pacific could stimulate the trough to develop, though I don't see it as intensive as the GFS depicts in the 7-14 day period. Majority of the snow cover is currently across the other side of the Pole, without that, the cold will be greatly modified as it heads East. We need to build the snow cover up north to sustain the anomalies. The storm track doesn't look "active" but at the same it doesn't look dead. A few waves of moisture that lack energy as shown now by the models which may end up being the case in the end, lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Yowsers! Highs in the 30fs? Crap..i got quite a few outdoor things i need to do (clean garage/put a bunch of stuff away/etc)... going to really have to get some stuff taken care of, because around here you never know when the last warm day will be from here on out. I remember moving on Nov 15 in a snow storm....also remember snow on Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 I think anyone north of I-80 in late October can see snow flakes. It's been awhile since I've seen them in late October but they can happen. If you think about it... the sun angle now is the equivalent of the last week of February! The storm track looks a lot more active than the last two months, so I would call it at least somewhat active. Cold front is pushing closer to MSN and RFD at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 15, 2013 Author Share Posted October 15, 2013 I think anyone north of I-80 in late October can see snow flakes. It's been awhile since I've seen them in late October but they can happen. If you think about it... the sun angle now is the equivalent of the last week of February! The storm track looks a lot more active than the last two months, so I would call it at least somewhat active. Cold front is pushing closer to MSN and RFD at this hour. I had some flakes in fact basically a light snow shower in mid October back in 2005 or 2006 so it can certainly happen here this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 I think anyone north of I-80 in late October can see snow flakes. It's been awhile since I've seen them in late October but they can happen. If you think about it... the sun angle now is the equivalent of the last week of February! The storm track looks a lot more active than the last two months, so I would call it at least somewhat active. Cold front is pushing closer to MSN and RFD at this hour. I'm not saying it is impossible to have snow... I am saying with the forecast pattern, it doesn't look likely that areas outside of the far Northern parts of the region down wind of the Lakes will see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 I'm not saying it is impossible to have snow... I am saying with the forecast pattern, it doesn't look likely that areas outside of the far Northern parts of the region down wind of the Lakes will see snow. I would give areas north of a La Crosse to Saginaw Bay line a 75% chance of seeing some snow before Halloween. Then maybe a 30% chance down to I-80 - especially if you include graupel in the equation. I think it was 1989 when this area was hit by a rare October snowstorm. In fact I think SnowFreak posted something about it one time. Edit: Yes I am agreeing with you on the area that will likely see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 I would give areas north of a La Crosse to Saginaw Bay line a 75% chance of seeing some snow before Halloween. Then maybe a 30% chance down to I-80 - especially if you include graupel in the equation. I am talking snow, not graupel and that line is about 44N so you are agreeing with me then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Dew has dropped from 60 back to 47 since early this afternoon. Enjoying one of the first dry slot intrusions of the season atm, lol. Winds are getting pretty gusty out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 At 61°, with mostly cloudy conditions still. Cold front about 20 miles to the west. 0.12" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 High elevation locations that see decent lake bands will see their first snow of 2013-14 winter by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Long range forecast has a few NASTY troughs developing, would be record breaking cold... Let's see if it holds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Long range forecast has a few NASTY troughs developing, would be record breaking cold... Let's see if it holds up. Could be a good chance of record breaking low maximums, but low minimums will be hard to break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Long range forecast has a few NASTY troughs developing, would be record breaking cold... Let's see if it holds up. Could be a good chance of record breaking low maximums, but low minimums will be hard to break. Why is that? Probably won't have a shot without early snowcover, which is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Why is that? Probably won't have a shot without early snowcover, which is unlikely. Just the reality that record lows are harder to achieve, also the troughs look like more noisy ones in terms of disturbances, therefore cloud cover/precip could hinder. On the other hand, the 18z GFS showed the potential in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Several cold shots coming with the first real one coming this weekend the 18z GFS really loads up Canada with cold air middle-late next week but it has a tendency to do so in the medium/long range with these cold shots so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Just the reality that record lows are harder to achieve, also the troughs look like more noisy ones in terms of disturbances, therefore cloud cover/precip could hinder. On the other hand, the 18z GFS showed the potential in the long range. UGN has some records in the mid 20s during the last 8 days of the month. Could be doable. Of course they've only been keeping tabs about 30 years. MKE records LOT's new graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 I will take a flyer and say that someone in Southern Wisconsin will see snow late next Wednesday into Wednesday night/Thursday morning at some point, perhaps accumulating to a dusting or a bit more. I know it's risky and things will likely change, but I feel I might as well get it in writing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 I will take a flyer and say that someone in Southern Wisconsin will see snow late next Wednesday into Wednesday night/Thursday morning at some point, perhaps accumulating to a dusting or a bit more. I know it's risky and things will likely change, but I feel I might as well get it in writing. Dear lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 I will take a flyer and say that someone in Southern Wisconsin will see snow late next Wednesday into Wednesday night/Thursday morning at some point, perhaps accumulating to a dusting or a bit more. I know it's risky and things will likely change, but I feel I might as well get it in writing. I'd rather see this pattern about 3 to 4 weeks from now. But it should prove to be interesting nonetheless. It's been awhile since we've had interesting in the last 2-3 months, except that day of the waterspouts. Maybe we can break some records while we're at it. MSN always seems to be the hot spot for snow, maybe they'll be the first place under 45°N to see it. Down to 48° now. Still clear out I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 I'd rather see this pattern about 3 to 4 weeks from now. But it should prove to be interesting nonetheless. It's been awhile since we've had interesting in the last 2-3 months, except that day of the waterspouts. Maybe we can break some records while we're at it. MSN always seems to be the hot spot for snow, maybe they'll be the first place under 45°N to see it. Down to 48° now. Still clear out I think. I don't know, this whole fall has been nice, several thunderstorm episodes, comfortable temps when not storming, and now it looks like a flip to late fall/wintry conditions just in time for the 2nd half of meteorological fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 I don't know, this whole fall has been nice, several thunderstorm episodes, comfortable temps when not storming, and now it looks like a flip to late fall/wintry conditions just in time for the 2nd half of meteorological fall. I was coming from a perspective or extreme weather. If it does snow, we both know it will melt off versus a system in mid November that produces snow that can hang around for awhile. Yes, definitely a pleasant autumn so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 I will take a flyer and say that someone in Southern Wisconsin will see snow late next Wednesday into Wednesday night/Thursday morning at some point, perhaps accumulating to a dusting or a bit more. I know it's risky and things will likely change, but I feel I might as well get it in writing. WOTY material right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 I think anyone north of I-80 in late October can see snow flakes. It's been awhile since I've seen them in late October but they can happen. If you think about it... the sun angle now is the equivalent of the last week of February! The storm track looks a lot more active than the last two months, so I would call it at least somewhat active. Cold front is pushing closer to MSN and RFD at this hour. Actually much further south than that...I'd say it's not that unusual for anyone all the way down to the I-70 corridor to see some flakes in late Oct. In fact here in CMH I can recall a winterstorm warning issued on October 30th....(circa 1993)? 4"... I'm bad with dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Per Latest gfs and euro, I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow on the ground here on halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 I will take a flyer and say that someone in Southern Wisconsin will see snow late next Wednesday into Wednesday night/Thursday morning at some point, perhaps accumulating to a dusting or a bit more. I know it's risky and things will likely change, but I feel I might as well get it in writing. Not a chance, no model is showing this and it only gets cold enough for the potential of a rain/snow mix in the Northern Lakes. I think you are making the mistake of looking at 0c at 850 and thinking there will be snow chances. At this time of year you need probably -5c at 850mb, I mean if you are lucky maybe -3c but definitely not 0c at 850c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Per Latest gfs and euro, I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow on the ground here on halloween Yeah your area and across the UP is looking golden, I am going to be up North at the cabin next weekend, and it looks like I might be seeing snow there per latest model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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