snowlover2 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 2nd month of met fall is upon us. Will any of us see our first snowflakes? Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Good idea, I was about to start this thread today. I think a lot of us will see snow showers at some point this month. Models are pointing towards blocking taking shape a bit early. Will likely drive down unseasonably cool, unstable air which can set off convective rain/snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Cold air showing up just north of the border on the EURO by Oct. 3rd. Edit: A look at the cold filling Canada by next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Not sure what the average date is for first flakes in the LAF (might be November) but basic climo would suggest that the farther north of I-80 you go, the better the chance at seeing flakes in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Freeze the first week of Oct here...bank it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Yeah big plunge of colder air by the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Our first Great Lakes cold rain storm is on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 These cold images are nice, but this happens every year, models show a big time cold plunge early in the season only to have it moderate as we get closer to the time of the event. Not to say it won't be seasonably cool after this system, but anyone thinking that we are going to be dealing with highs in the low 40s or something crazy might want to move into Canada for that one. That being said, I do think this system about 5-7 days out has some pretty good potential to it with respect to severe weather for the region, and a good soaker which is something we all can use right now. You really don't want to be going into winter in a drought that usually does not help your chances for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 I wonder if we can get some more 80F temps up here... days are getting awfully short, but record high temps in Oct can still reach the low 90Fs in the first week... even through the end of the month the records stay in the low to mid 80Fs.. Really hate that kind of heat this time of year, but at least the nights usually cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Stebo- Looking at the later runs of the Euro, it would seem that the cold never really gets into here... At day 10 we have epic torching into Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Stebo- Looking at the later runs of the Euro, it would seem that the cold never really gets into here... At day 10 we have epic torching into Canada That is probably a bit over done as well. I do think that it will get colder beyond this system for a couple days but it probably won't be something over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Not every forecasted early October cold shot moderates/falls short of the 40s for highs. In 2000, there was a handful of days where highs were in the 40s here and a couple snow showers occurred on the 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Not every forecasted early October cold shot moderates/falls short of the 40s for highs. In 2000, there was a handful of days where highs were in the 40s here and a couple snow showers occurred on the 7th. oct2000coldshot.jpg Sure but one instance doesn't mean it will happen this time, even the last couple of runs have moderated significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Sure but one instance doesn't mean it will happen this time, even the last couple of runs have moderated significantly. Hey, it could come back! It would probably have a better chance of coming true if there was more snow cover in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Hey, it could come back! It would probably have a better chance of coming true if there was more snow cover in Canada. Given the trend in recent years of warm falls (especially warm and snowless Novembers) deep fall cool shots will have me skeptical until we're within a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Given the trend in recent years of warm falls (especially warm and snowless Novembers) deep fall cool shots will have me skeptical until we're within a couple days. We're way overdue for a for a cool, wet October. It's going to come sooner or later and with good evidence of blocking taking shape, I think we have a good chance of a cool, wet October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Wasn't October 2009 cool and wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Wasn't October 2009 cool and wet? Yeah. It was the 4 wettest and 28th coldest Oct on record in MKE and the first 18 days of that month were below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Maybe we're not way overdue, but our number is probably up for another cool one. Looks like near 80° for the 1st here and then temperatures slide the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Wasn't October 2009 cool and wet?4 years = way overdue I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Wasn't October 2009 cool and wet? Cedar Rapids was very cool and extremely wet. We only made it above 60 degrees eight times the entire month and half of those just barely. The second week of the month we were stuck in the 40s for highs every day. My yard received over 8 inches of rain, which is extreme for October. To me it feels like we are due for a consistently mild late September through mid October. I've had to do a lot of covering of my frost/freeze sensitive hummingbird plants the last few years in Sep/early Oct. I hate doing that so I'd love to have it remain mild for another couple weeks until the last hummer leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 October 2009 here was -2.29°. 6.35" of rain. 9th-15th it didn't crack 50° at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Im having flashbacks of that icepussie Traperman from last late september. Every fantasy cold cool snap would get him all aroused. Guys... When will some learn to not follow and take the med/range GFS verbatim. Its going to be a torched Fall anyhow. Its certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 this sounds great for the first weekend of October: APX AT THIS TIME CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT A COOLER AND BLUSTERY WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONALSHOWER THREATS VIA PASSING WAVES IN DEEPENING OVERHEAD TROUGHING ANDPOSSIBLE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS AS OVER-WATER INSTABILITYINCREASES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Im having flashbacks of that icepussie Traperman from last late september. Every fantasy cold cool snap would get him all aroused. Guys... When will some learn to not follow and take the med/range GFS verbatim. Its going to be a torched Fall anyhow. Its certain. 1 month into met fall and we are below normal, although not by much... We have been the lucky ones in the subforum, western areas have been torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Growing season: Game over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Growing season: Game over Man I'd be pretty excited about a storm tracking like this if it were a month or two later. Sort of an odd track for so early in the season, but the Euro has been pretty insistent on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Growing season: Game over Amazing how similar to a major upper peninsula snowstorm that looks. I wouldn't be surprised to see some LES mixed with rain in the Huron Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 DVN's take on things.. AFTERWARDS...THIS IS WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS ANDUNTIL THEY COME TO A CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN LOW. THE GFSKEEPS THE TROUGH PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THECWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SUGGESTS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTHE LOWER 60S. FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR A LOT OF RAIN THEN PIN YOURHOPES ON THE ECMWF. THIS MODEL BRINGS ADDITIONAL STRONG ENERGY INTOTHE MAIN TROUGH AND DIGS IT STRONGLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...DEVELOPING CYCLOGENESIS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT JUSTEAST OF THE CWA. GULF MOISTURE WOULD BE PLENTIFUL WITH A WINTER-LIKESTORM SYSTEM SPREADING A COLD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THECWA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...COMPLETE WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE WITHADDITIONAL RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WOULDSUGGEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 50! STAY TUNED. Might have to kick the ol' furnace on for the first time by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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