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October 2013 forecast contest -- temperatures

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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So, I regret that the forum seems to have lost a few active members such as Chicago Wx and Ellinwood. This is part of the reason for a somewhat smaller turnout in the October contest, perhaps a few others have dropped out as they see no chance of overtaking the leaders, but for those who remain in the chase, here are the entries for October, as always they are arranged by DCA forecasts from warmest to coldest:

 

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ______ ORD _ ATL _ IAH

 

 

RodneyS ________________________ +3.1 _ +3.5 _ +3.7 ___ +1.4 _ +2.3 _ --0.8

forkyfork ________________________ +2.8 _ +3.1 _ +3.5 ___ +1.7 _ +1.0 _ +0.2

Midlo_Snow_Maker ________________ +2.8 _ +2.7 _ +2.9 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.2

DerekZ __________________________ +2.3 _ +3.1 _ +2.9 ___ +1.7 _ +0.7 _ +1.1

bkviking _________________________ +2.2 _ +2.2 _ +2.0 ___ +1.1 _ +0.5 _ +0.2

Tom _________ (-12%) ____________ +2.1 _ +1.9 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +1.9 _ +0.9

blazess556 _______________________ +2.1 _ +1.9 _ +1.7 ___ +1.4 _ +0.9 _ +0.3

donsutherland.1 ___________________ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 ___ +1.8 _ +0.5 _--0.2

wxhype __________________________ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 ____ 0.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.6

Inudaw __________________________+1.9 _ +2.4 _ +2.6 ___ +0.9 _ +1.4 _ +0.5
Isotherm ________________________ +1.7 _ +2.0 _ +2.3 ___ +0.8 _ +1.1 _ --0.5

 

Consensus _______________________ +1.7 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5

 

wxdude64 _______________________ +1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.9 ___ +1.0 _ +1.2 _--0.2

uncle W _________________________ +1.7 _ +1.4 _ +1.3 ___ +2.1 _ +0.5 _ +1.5

goobagooba _____________________ +1.7 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 _____ 0.0 _ +0.7 _ +0.2

Metalicwx366 ____________________ +1.6 _ +1.9 _ +1.1 ____ +0.2 _ +1.7 _ +2.1 

stebo ___________________________ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.9 ____--0.2 _ +1.1 _ +1.5

Roger Smith _____________________ +1.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 ____ +1.0 _ +0.3 __ 0.0

Tenman Johnson _________________ +1.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.3 ____ +1.0 _ +2.3 _ +0.6

Mallow _________________________ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.7 ____ +1.9 _ +0.9 _ +0.8

Chicago Storm ___________________ +0.9 _ +1.1 _ +1.1 ____ +0.9 _ --0.1 _ --0.7

SD ____________________________ +0.8 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ____ --0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0

MN_Transplant __________________ +0.5 _ +0.9 _ +0.5 ____ +0.3 _ +0.7 _ +1.0

hudsonvalley21 __________________ +0.4 _ +1.1 _ +0.2 ____ --0.2 _ +0.5 _ +0.1

 

Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

______________________________________________________

 

 

All forecasts for the three eastern (classic) sites were above normal and so were most for the three expanded (central) sites although a more average outcome was foreseen by many for IAH.

Consensus for the 23 forecasts is the 12th ranked forecast value.

Let's hope that the funding freeze ends soon as we have no source of actual data (or do we?). :(

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bkviking

bkviking

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Posted

Roger, you deserve credit for maintaining and scoring these contests, so kudos to you, especially as u noted its been a hard period for you past month. There is some value gleamed from these contests, as I like to note NYC tri-state posters are clustered amongst the best in this contest. Don S, for example, further proves his mettle in these contests as he does with his vaunted Winter Blocking forecasts.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Thanks, the last month has been problematic mainly for internet access, I don't have a working laptop and was away from home for almost the entire month. I found a place near my hotel with reasonable bulk rates but had rather limited amounts of time to try to maintain what usually adds up to a full day on weather forums around the internet world. So all my various projects suffered from a severe lack of time. However, it was what it was and now it's done.

 

So although I'm back, the weather recorders are now absent and we will have to await the solution to find out the exact numbers. We can guess that the anomalies are fairly large so far.

 

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