OKpowdah Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Pabuk is currently a category 2 TC in the western Pacific near 30N and tracking northeastward. Outflow is already interacting with the jet, as can be seen by the cirrus shield in satellite imagery. Looks like a pretty classic interaction that follows, with divergent outflow transporting the strong diabatic heating and low PV air poleward, pumping up ridging to the northeast, and intensifying the jet. Then the wave train, and wave breaking that follows. It'll be a question of the downstream pattern over the Atlantic as to how this evolves over the U.S. but anyway, 'tis the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 West Coast north of San Francisco gonna get hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 True story. That's a solid trough that digs out of the Gulf of Alaska. Long story short, it's gonna rain. Plus some major snowfall on the highest peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 The jet is approaching 200kts. Big time baby for late Sept. Like Adam said, that ridge should help dig a sharp trough into the PAC NW, but I wouldn't expect anything exciting for the East Coast....not with the GOA low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 But I thought a recurving typhoon GUARANTEED a trough in the east 6-10 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 RIGHT?? I wanted a snowstorm! COME ON. It's a combination of a few things, but being still kind of early in the season, wavelengths are still short and the jet is still poleward, both of which aren't favorable for the coveted EC trough haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 My hunch is the severe potential will increase across the Plains and lead to the beginning of the Fall season severe weather we tend to see near the first of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Yeah, now that Hurricane Season has been a complete bust, time to start hoping for You-Tubeable storms in the Plains. ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260822 SPC AC 260822 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2013 VALID 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED EARLY WEEK WITH AN INCREASE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW. AROUND D7-8...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A TROUGH SHOULD AMPLIFY OVER PARTS OF THE WEST. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW ON SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS OF THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION. GIVEN THE PRIOR ZONAL FLOW REGIME...AN EML PLUME WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A MT AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL CONUS AS THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH D2-3 CONVECTION DISSIPATES. THESE FACTORS COULD YIELD A MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT LATE NEXT WEEK. ..GRAMS.. 09/26/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 RIGHT?? I wanted a snowstorm! COME ON. It's a combination of a few things, but being still kind of early in the season, wavelengths are still short and the jet is still poleward, both of which aren't favorable for the coveted EC trough haha. LOL, even when we had favorable MJO phases back in Feb 2012, the GOA low gave the ridge a nice Kid N play flat top. No East Coast amplification for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 LOL, even when we had favorable MJO phases back in Feb 2012, the GOA low gave the ridge a nice Kid N play flat top. No East Coast amplification for you. haha yup, GOA low usually a guaranteed downer on EC fun. There are a few cases that work out given the right pattern poleward and downstream. Boxing Day 2010 had a pretty pronounced GOA low, but the western US ridging bridged nicely with the strong -NAO block, and the Pacific jet was impeded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 My hunch is the severe potential will increase across the Plains and lead to the beginning of the Fall season severe weather we tend to see near the first of October. Anything that ejects out of that GOA low is a candidate. Some model support for something around day 7-8. But the timing of these ejections can get a little tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 RIGHT?? I wanted a snowstorm! COME ON. It's a combination of a few things, but being still kind of early in the season, wavelengths are still short and the jet is still poleward, both of which aren't favorable for the coveted EC trough haha. Yes indeed good sir. Man this weather is freaking boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Yup... I'm going to have to really start paying attention to the WPAC typhoons as it relates to my weather. I'm pretty excited about this weekend's storm. PQR is mentioning Pabuk in their AFD: THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE INCREASINGPOSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY RAIN OR ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THIS WEEKEND.WE WILL SEE AN INITIAL DECENT SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN ASTRONGER MUCH MUCH WETTER SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH MOST OFSUNDAY THAT IS BEING FED SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WESTERNPACIFIC EX TYPHOON PABUK.THE FIRST SYSTEM LEADING INTO THIS EVENT WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHWESTWASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS DECENTMOISTURE WITH IT...AND WILL ESPECIALLY AFFECT THE COAST AND NORTHINTERIOR AREAS SOUTH TO NEAR SALEM. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OFHALF INCH OR BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE COAST RANGE AND THECASCADES FROM ABOUT MOUNT HOOD NORTHWARD. WITH THE RAINS THAT HAVEALREADY FALLEN SO FAR IN THIS UNUSUALLY WET SEPTEMBER...THIS WILLJUST CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE GROUND. RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCURFRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARYSTALLS OVER OUR AREA.THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM BEGINS SENDING MORE MOISTURE TOWARD OUR AREAALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLDFRONT PUSHES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PWS OF AT LEAST 1.5INCHES ARE FEEDING THIS SYSTEM. 850 MB WINDS OF UP TO 60 KT ARETRANSPORTING THIS MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. THERE ARE STILL A FEWDIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WITH THE MOST RECENT 00Z ECMWF MODEL ABIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FASTER WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WHILETHE GFS AND GEM MODELS STALL THE FRONT UNDER MORE SOUTHWEST FLOWALOFT BEFORE PUSHING IT THROUGH ON SUNDAY. ALL IN ALL...IT WILL BEVERY WET...POSSIBLY RECORD WET FOR SEPTEMBER. URBAN FLOODING IS VERYLIKELY DUE TO THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STATE OF GROUND MOISTURE ANDALL THE LEAVES ON THE TREES...AND RIVER FLOODING IS BECOMING ANINCREASING POSSIBILITY. THE CURRENTTHE MID SHIFT RAMPED UP QPF FOR THIS WEEKEND AND THESE AMOUNTS STILLLOOK REASONABLE. SOME IMPRESSIVE PRELIMINARY QPF TOTALS ENDING SUNDAYEVENING (THE EXTENT OF OUR QPF FORECAST PERIOD). SOUTHWEST SLOPES OFTHE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES COULD RECEIVE ON THE ORDER OF 10 INCHESOF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH AREAS NEAR MT HEBO ON THE OREGONCOAST SEEING AROUND 8 INCHES. IN ALL...AREAS ALONG THE FAR NORTHOREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST WILL SEE 5 TO 6 INCHES WITH AMOUNTSTAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE CENTRAL CASCADES RECEIVEAROUND 1.30 INCHES. COULD SEE AROUND 3.50 INCHES FOR THE METRO AREAAND TAPER OFF TO 2.5 INCHES AROUND EUGENE/SPRINGFIELD. THESE TOTALSSTILL LOOK REASONABLE.WILL ALSO NEED TO BE AWARE OF A POSSIBLE WIND EVENT ALONG THE COASTSATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL LIKELY EVEN BE WINDY INLAND ASWELL. TOLLESON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 But I thought a recurving typhoon GUARANTEED a trough in the east 6-10 days later oh this trough? yea pretty much on recurve schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 oh this trough? yea pretty much on recurve schedule Too little too late Mr. 300hr GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 oh this trough? yea pretty much on recurve schedule That's beyond the timeframe of this interaction. Especially with shorter wavelengths / faster phase speeds, the whole "event" is no more than 7 days, before other wave activity becomes dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 oh this trough? yea pretty much on recurve schedule I will make note that your Oct 5th trough is making its occasional appearance on the models here, notably the recent gfs run..GOA trough is still present though so I wouldnt call it a high likelihood to stick around. oct looking pretty mild for much of the country to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 This is going to be an awesome series of storms: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR1012 AM PDT FRI SEP 27 2013ORZ001>014-WAZ019>023-039-040-280115-NORTH OREGON COAST-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-WILLAPA HILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASTORIA...CANNON BEACH...TILLAMOOK...LINCOLN CITY...NEWPORT...FLORENCE...VERNONIA...JEWELL...TRASK...GRANDE RONDE...TIDEWATER...SWISSHOME...ST. HELENS...CLATSKANIE...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...SALEM...MCMINNVILLE...DALLAS...EUGENE...CORVALLIS...ALBANY...HOOD RIVER...CASCADE LOCKS...MULTNOMAH FALLS...SANDY...SILVER FALLS STATE PARK...SWEET HOME...GOVERNMENT CAMP...DETROIT...SANTIAM PASS...VIDA...LOWELL...COTTAGE GROVE...MCKENZIE BRIDGE...OAKRIDGE...WILLAMETTE PASS...PARKDALE...ODELL...COLDWATER RIDGE VISITORS CENTER...MOUNT ST. HELENS...FRANCES...RYDERWOOD...RAYMOND...LONG BEACH...CATHLAMET...LONGVIEW...KELSO...CASTLE ROCK...STEVENSON...SKAMANIA...VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...WASHOUGAL...TOUTLE...ARIEL...COUGAR1012 AM PDT FRI SEP 27 2013...UNUSUAL SEPTEMBER WINDY AND VERY WET STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTEDTHIS WEEKEND TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTOREGON...A SERIES OF POTENT EARLY FALL STORMS WILL IMPACT THE PACIFICNORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OFMODERATE TO VERY HEAVY RAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON ANDNORTHWEST OREGON. TWO OF THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONGWINDS ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND AS WELL. THESE ARE HIGHLYUNUSUAL STORMS FOR SEPTEMBER AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCINGRECORD RAINS.THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WAS SPREADING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHWESTWASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING...AND WILL SPREADSOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTOREGON TODAY AND THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 0.75 AND 2.00 INCHES OFRAIN WILL FALL BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THECOAST RANGE AND SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THISSTORM WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...BUT WILL BETHE WEAKEST STORM OF THIS SERIES.THE NEXT STORM ON SATURDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER ANDWETTER...AND WILL CONTAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM A FORMER WESTERNPACIFIC TYPHOON. RAIN WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING THE DAYSATURDAY AND CONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH A GOOD PART OFSATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE COASTAL STRIPAND BEACHES...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND INTO THEVALLEYS.THE SECOND POTENTIALLY EVEN STRONGER STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACHSUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILLALSO HAVE TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUNDOF HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAYAND SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THISSTORM...BOTH AT THE COAST AND INLAND.RAINFALL ESTIMATES THROUGH MONDAY SHOW AMOUNTS IN THE COAST RANGEAND CASCADES COULD REACH 7 TO 10 INCHES...WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHESIN THE VALLEYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF URBAN ANDSMALL STREAM FLOODING. LARGER RIVERS WILL LIKELY ALSO SEESIGNIFICANT RISES.THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN...SATURATED SOILS...STRONGWINDS...AND TREES WITH A FULL COMPLEMENT OF LEAVES WILL LIKELYLEAD TO TREE DAMAGE AND POWER DISRUPTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THECOAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE BUT ALSO POSSIBLY IN THE INLANDVALLEYS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.THE STRONG WINDS AND EXPECTED HIGH SEAS WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS FORMARINERS ALONG THE COAST. PEOPLE SHOULD ALSO AVOID BEACH AREASWHERE THEY CAN BE WASHED AWAY BY THE HIGHER WAVES AND CAN BESEVERELY INJURED OR KILLED BY DEBRIS TOSSED ONSHORE.DETAILS ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM CONTINUE TO COME TOGETHER...HOWEVER...SUBTLE SHIFTS IN POSITION AND TIMING ARE EXPECTED TOCONTINUE AHEAD OF AND DURING THE EVENT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITORTHE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOURLOCAL MEDIA OUTLET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 This is going to be an awesome series of storms: This is just the next 3 days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 This is just the next 3 days: d13_fill.gif It's absolutely insane. I hope no one is planning to go driving in the mountains this weekend....the landslide potential must be enormous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Too little too late Mr. 300hr GFS Maybe Mr 192 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 That's beyond the timeframe of this interaction. Especially with shorter wavelengths / faster phase speeds, the whole "event" is no more than 7 days, before other wave activity becomes dominant.rule is 7-10 days after recurve, see today's Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Maybe Mr 192 Euro? Euro and GFS would hint at a possible severe outbreak in the OV with that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 rule is 7-10 days after recurve, see today's Euro function of zonal wind speed and wavelength. Careful with a post hoc argument... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 function of zonal wind speed and wavelength. Careful with a post hoc argument...trough appears on the East Coast deeper than modeling showed yesterday, starting to get a handle on it? All too familiar, we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 trough appears on the East Coast deeper than modeling showed yesterday, starting to get a handle on it? All too familiar, we shall see Again you need to look for the source. Second, the 7-10 day timescale is from the time of recurvature / jet interaction, which was 2-3 days ago. So we're in the day 5 timeframe, at which point new wave activity is already layering on top of any signal left from Pabuk. The main thing from Pabuk is the huge jet amplification over the N Pac leading to the Pac NW storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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