snowlover2 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 6z NAM would make most of us Ohio posters happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 6z GFS looks like a step toward the NAM. Its now more on the juicy side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 euro still not buying in. Ensemble mean looks like there is still a lot of spread among members. Wouldn't be surprised to see euro move towards other models soon. Either that or it scores a rep-saving coupe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 euro still not buying in. Ensemble mean looks like there is still a lot of spread among members. Wouldn't be surprised to see euro move towards other models soon. Either that or it scores a rep-saving coupe. This is probably when the king will be king again. Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 06z GFS gives Newark 7" or 8" Sunday night with a tight gradient NW to SE. Wow. Euro will probably start trending in this direction soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 06z GFS gives Newark 7" or 8" Sunday night with a tight gradient NW to SE. Wow. Euro will probably start trending in this direction soon. This is probably when the king will be king again. Ugh! Ok, I realize I'll get smacked for saying this but the nam shows the heaviest axis right through central IN and OH...10-12". According to JB...(yea I know)...the nam is his solution of choice. He says about half of the euro ens. members are in the nam camp and half are flat. Thinks it's going to be one or the other and favors the nam. my grain of salt post for the day I'd say the euro 12z is the do or die run. If it stays flat I suspect other models will begin the caving process Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Ok, I realize I'll get smacked for saying this but the nam shows the heaviest axis right through central IN and OH...10-12". According to JB...(yea I know)...the nam is his solution of choice. He says about half of the euro ens. members are in the nam camp and half are flat. Thinks it's going to be one or the other and favors the nam. my grain of salt post for the day My call (only b/c this has been labeled The Pondo Storm and I am bad luck) is this thing is a swing and a miss. NAM has been just awful. JB is always all over the place. What about this storm would make anyone think the NAM has a handle on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Ok, I realize I'll get smacked for saying this but the nam shows the heaviest axis right through central IN and OH...10-12". According to JB...(yea I know)...the nam is his solution of choice. He says about half of the euro ens. members are in the nam camp and half are flat. Thinks it's going to be one or the other and favors the nam. my grain of salt post for the day I'd say the euro 12z is the do or die run. If it stays flat I suspect other models will begin the caving process I didn't even bother looking at the NAM. Thanks for getting me to peak at it and ruin my day. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I don't have any way to see the Euro ensemble members, but I'd venture a guess that there's just about no way half of them look like the NAM when looking at the mean SLP plot above. But maybe I'm just grumbling because I'm not on the southern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 My call (only b/c this has been labeled The Pondo Storm and I am bad luck) is this thing is a swing and a miss. NAM has been just awful. JB is always all over the place. What about this storm would make anyone think the NAM has a handle on it? man I sure don't want to defend the nam but wasn't it the furthest north with this last storm? While the euro was pretty far south? Euro never had snow reaching Detroit until inside of 48 hrs if I recall. Look what happened? IF the nam was to find a nut, it's usually in this type of situation. Now I need to go take a shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro played catch up with this Wednesday's storm run after run. Even at the end it did a terrible job, particularly for what it showed across northeastern Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'd say the Euro consistently ran 25-50 miles too far south with the track with the last storm until about a day out. That's really not that bad. The dry slot really hurt everything. I can't really say any model did great with Wednesday's event, considering the NAM had a few runs a day or two out that showed 1-3" of LES behind northern OH and mainly rain with the synoptic event. I'll lean on the global models for now until proven wrong, if only because they show more snow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 man I sure don't want to defend the nam but wasn't it the furthest north with this last storm? While the euro was pretty far south? Euro never had snow reaching Detroit until inside of 48 hrs if I recall. Look what happened? IF the nam was to find a nut, it's usually in this type of situation. Now I need to go take a shower You know I guess the NAM wasn't too bad with the last storm. However, about 24 hours prior to the event it had that silly ridiculous weenie run burying Chicago with like 12-18 inches. I guess we shall see. Would love for it to be the hero and not the goat for "my storm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'd say the Euro consistently ran 25-50 miles too far south with the track with the last storm until about a day out. That's really not that bad. The dry slot really hurt everything. I can't really say any model did great with Wednesday's event, considering the NAM had a few runs a day or two out that showed 1-3" of LES behind northern OH and mainly rain with the synoptic event. I'll lean on the global models for now until proven wrong, if only because they show more snow for me. yea I don't recall details but I think the eventual track took it into southern OH. I know the euro never showed a track that far north, until maybe the bitter end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 yea I don't recall details but I think the eventual track took it into southern OH. I know the euro never showed a track that far north, until maybe the bitter end. How's that shower coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 You know I guess the NAM wasn't too bad with the last storm. However, about 24 hours prior to the event it had that silly ridiculous weenie run burying Chicago with like 12-18 inches. I guess we shall see. Would love for it to be the hero and not the goat for "my storm". lol...that's right I remember those crushing Chicago runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 How's that shower coming? that was my way of saying I felt dirty for climbing in bed with the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 yea I don't recall details but I think the eventual track took it into southern OH. I know the euro never showed a track that far north, until maybe the bitter end. I just looked through the Euro runs starting at 4 days out, and every run took it just north of the Ohio River. The storm ended up tracking from Cinci to Wheeling more or less, so it wasn't quite far enough north, but it wasn't bad. It caught on about 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 that was my way of saying I felt dirty for climbing in bed with the nam Hah, I should've known! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 My call (only b/c this has been labeled The Pondo Storm and I am bad luck) is this thing is a swing and a miss. NAM has been just awful. JB is always all over the place. What about this storm would make anyone think the NAM has a handle on it? And the trend has started. Sunday night into Monday will be partly cloudy-my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 And the trend has started. Sunday night into Monday will be partly cloudy-my call. Nam gives 5-9" across the area sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 My question is where us the warmth? Supposed to reach 60 and still at 40° in warsaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Nam gives 5-9" across the area sunday. Had more than that at 0z. Gfs went way south as did Canadian. I would never trust the NAM outside of 9 hours. Scratch that. I don't trust any model. So changing my call to partly cloudy with a 40% chance of snow, 0.5-9 inches possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 My question is where us the warmth? Supposed to reach 60 and still at 40° in warsaw. 54 here in Lewis Center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 54 here in Lewis Center Up to 42 here with about 30 mph winds. So feels about 25-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Up to 42 here with about 30 mph winds. So feels about 25-30Every other station is 10-15 degrees warmer around you. Is that reading legit? Up to 60 here with a nice breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Every other station is 10-15 degrees warmer around you. Is that reading legit? Up to 60 here with a nice breeze. Up to 57 here. It's nice out except for that wind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Had more than that at 0z. Gfs went way south as did Canadian. I would never trust the NAM outside of 9 hours. Scratch that. I don't trust any model. So changing my call to partly cloudy with a 40% chance of snow, 0.5-9 inches possible The Pondo Storm, time of death 2:10 PM EDT. Sorry I couldn't bring the luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The Pondo Storm, time of death 2:10 PM EDT. Sorry I couldn't bring the luck everyone! The Euro still gives me 3". I'd take 3" at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The Euro still gives me 3". I'd take 3" at this point. No offense, but I was talking about for this being a more widespread moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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