JayPSU Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=nam&time=2014022812&field=prec Now that's ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 why not? I've said it before, no one does a march or april winter storm like CMH. January? Not so much. actually one of the greatest storms in Columbus is called the Leap Day storm (1984) I believe. Totally different synoptic situation, if I remember correctly. The SREF plumes say that there is a small chance that Dayton could get over 2.0" of liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=nam&time=2014022812&field=prec Now that's ugly! yea, thankfully it's the nam, (I think that would be worse case scenario). Btw, if the rgem is any indication, the Canadian should come in colder and a bit south with the first wave because it's a little slower with the precip and quicker with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I need that southern edge to go more to the SOUTH. We value our power lines! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 you guys see the gfs? Proves my point, if you don't have the sack to sweat the sleet, then you're gonna have to settle for a run-of-the-mill event. ukmet is a nice hit here...btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 you guys see the gfs? Proves my point, if you don't have the sack to sweat the sleet, then you're gonna have to settle for a run-of-the-mill event. ukmet is a nice hit here...btw Unreal. Especially considering how the 6z went north. I hope the Euro holds serve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Unreal. Especially considering how the 6z went north. I hope the Euro holds serve! yep, in the end this is gonna be an average of the last 2 euro runs. Anything else the ncep, ggem, or uk spits out is just entertainment at this point. I'll go with 6-10 here and maybe a little sleet at the onset. I've already made preparations so I feel a ton better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Based on my bad eyes...look likes the 12z GFS never brings the 850 line north of about Middletown to Chillicothe. Then as the precip really cranks Sunday night and Monday all of Ohio is in heavy snow...at least the southern 1/2 of the state. Even much of northern Ky switches to snow. Don't have tables...but based on noon....I have to think Dayton to CMH gets buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 yep, in the end this is gonna be an average of the last 2 euro runs. Anything else the ncep, ggem, or uk spits out is just entertainment at this point. I'll go with 6-10 here and maybe a little sleet at the onset. I've already made preparations so I feel a ton better. Good! Glad to have you back. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Based on my bad eyes...look likes the 12z GFS never brings the 850 line north of about Middletown to Chillicothe. Then as the precip really cranks Sunday night and Monday all of Ohio is in heavy snow...at least the southern 1/2 of the state. Even much of northern Ky switches to snow. Don't have tables...but based on noon....I have to think Dayton to CMH gets buried. qpf isn't as heavy on the gfs...the trade off might be longer duration with the front end colder and snowier. Will be interesting to see what it spit out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Almost looks like a fourth piece of energy on Monday pushes heavier precip back across the river and up to about I-70 for several hours at a pretty good clip. Cincy looks to do very well too! Certainly an "I'll take that one". A met on the main thread said that one of the new SREF members brings almost 2 inch qpf to Dayton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Canadian looks good with the 2nd wave, but the third goes poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fogbreath Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This year there must be something to me having to travel back from the Newark area to Cbus on a Sunday. Last time that happened, the area was hit by that nice over-performing clipper. Looks like this time we're just going to get a plain old good March (hopefully mostly) snow event Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 http://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_84HR.gif Looks like what we lose in qpf we make up in ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The spot you want to be right now is just to the north of the heavy band.. so if GFS looks to pound Cincy... Dayton to Columbus would be the ones to actually fair better because we would avoid prolonged sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Canadian has been lost on this one so toss it for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Canadian has been lost on this one so toss it for now... Careful with just tossing it as the RGEM has done well this winter. Not saying to take it for gold but I wouldn't just toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Careful with just tossing it as the RGEM has done well this winter. Not saying to take it for gold but I wouldn't just toss it. Exactly. It may be onto something. No model can be tossed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Canadian appeared to be a nice hit here with the 2nd wave. Just need to see if it's onto some with the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Eh, for all the model waffling, the bottom line has been that the I-70 corridor gets a decent hit. Even the awful NAM has that. I'd say I'm about 95% confident of a 6"+ event. Whether we get some sleet mixed in or not, I don't think that will be a significant part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I could dig that call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 euro follows the 12z GFS south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looked like about 8-10" in central OH through 72 hours on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Storm cancel? 18z gfs says 3" across i70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yep....virtually nothing now with the third wave. 18z GFS is always worth a laugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yep....virtually nothing now with the third wave. 18z GFS is always worth a laugh! Idk if I'd laugh yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Idk if I'd laugh yet. Nor would I. The Canadian which has been mocked has been showing this for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nor would I. The Canadian which has been mocked has been showing this for awhile now.Now the nam shows a mix of zr and heavy snow. May be best to take an average of all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The model mayhem is comical.The ggem has virtually no snow south of i70 and the heaviest stripe is across Mansfield (about 6"). Meanwhile the euro has the heaviest axis across southern Ohio with very little in northern Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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