pondo1000 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I was actually a bit relieved to see the euro a bit stronger and North. The trend was getting uncomfortably close to this being pushed and bullied southeast...(see 12z ggem)Interested to see/hear the soundings on this puppy & if its mostly snow here. Been in the "magical" Disney World last few days heading back now. Stuck on a broken plane at the Orlando airport & may b here a while. Looking 4ward 2 one "big one" maybe then Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z Euro for CMH. The 12z Euro looked rather close to phasing the storm on Sunday which would be bad news for those looking for all snow. SAT 12Z 01-MAR -1.1 -5.1 1022 83 96 0.05 554 537 SAT 18Z 01-MAR 3.8 -3.0 1021 75 43 0.02 560 543 SUN 00Z 02-MAR 2.0 -1.5 1020 89 55 0.00 563 547 SUN 06Z 02-MAR 1.5 -1.9 1020 95 59 0.01 563 547 SUN 12Z 02-MAR 0.6 1.1 1021 97 91 0.05 563 547 SUN 18Z 02-MAR -2.5 0.6 1021 88 100 0.12 563 546 MON 00Z 03-MAR -4.6 1.1 1019 86 100 0.28 562 547 MON 06Z 03-MAR -6.3 1.2 1016 86 99 0.24 558 546 MON 12Z 03-MAR -8.5 -3.3 1014 85 100 0.44 552 541 MON 18Z 03-MAR -8.8 -7.3 1020 69 58 0.13 547 532 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro ensemble pretty much in check with op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 You know it's going to snow when Chris Bradley is beating the snow drums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 00z GFS comes in a bit juicier for CMH. Still all snow. This thread is kinda dead considering the potential, must be everyone is sick of winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 00z GFS comes in a bit juicier for CMH. Still all snow. This thread is kinda dead considering the potential, must be everyone is sick of winter! Speaking for myself, I'm guarded on this until12z friday runs. Granted things look good right now but 96+ is still plenty of time for a shift either way. BTW, the ggem looks like it crushes southern half of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Speaking for myself, I'm guarded on this until12z friday runs. Granted things look good right now but 96+ is still plenty of time for a shift either way. BTW, the ggem looks like it crushes southern half of Ohio. I can still see this being a miss to the south, which I can live with. A miss to the north would likely be massive frz rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 0z ECMWF shows major ice storm for the i70 corridor in central OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 06z GFS is a thing of beauty for OH. It would rival March 2008. Too bad it's so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 06z GFS is a thing of beauty for OH. It would rival March 2008. Too bad it's so far out. Yea lots model discrepancies, 06z NAM is a monster ice storm I-70 & south. I don't like the looks of this (i.e. NAM was closer than the GFS for the 3 biggest storms we got this winter in the Dayton area and all three of those were major busts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So i'm showing mix for cincy. frz and sleet. What am i missing? http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCVG&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NAM and Euro seem to like the ice storm idea. EE rule in effect on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So i'm showing mix for cincy. frz and sleet. What am i missing? http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCVG&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec That link is dynamic and shows the current model runs from the GFS, and right now its still showing the 06z one has over 1.2" total QPF all snow for Cincy, and if you start with roughly 10:1 and end near 20:1 ratios that could be a foot and a half total! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NAM and Euro seem to like the ice storm idea. EE rule in effect on this one? You almost have to laugh at the similarities between the lead up to this storm and the earlier FEB storm that dumped on us. Not sure the ee rule applies with the nam outside 48 hrs..lol. Actually, the fact that the nam has the 850 0 line over us at 84 might be a good sign (for the pro snow storm crowd*). This is usually the range where the nam is stupid far nw and warm...it was with the early FEB storm at this range. *This is the first winterstorm I can honestly say I won't be sad if it misses us. For personal reasons, if there was one timeframe this whole winter where I wouldn't want a snow/ice storm it's the 24 hours from this Sunday into Monday. It doesn't look like rain is an option, so if I had to choose what I want, it would be sleet, than snow, than ice, (unless the ice isn't bad enough to cause major problems). I fully realize I may lose my weenie credentials, but I'll gladly fill out a temporary waiver if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 You almost have to laugh at the similarities between the lead up to this storm and the earlier FEB storm that dumped on us. Not sure the ee rule applies with the nam outside 48 hrs..lol. Actually, the fact that the nam has the 850 0 line over us at 84 might be a good sign (for the pro snow storm crowd*). This is usually the range where the nam is stupid far nw and warm...it was with the early FEB storm at this range. *This is the first winterstorm I can honestly say I won't be sad if it misses us. For personal reasons, if there was one timeframe this whole winter where I wouldn't want a snow/ice storm it's the 24 hours from this Sunday into Monday. It doesn't look like rain is an option, so if I had to choose what I want, it would be sleet, than snow, than ice, (unless the ice isn't bad enough to cause major problems). I fully realize I may lose my weenie credentials, but I'll gladly fill out a temporary waiver if need be. Wow. Say it isn't so! LOL. Well I hope whatever happens it doesn't hinder your plans too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow, 10-14 inches for cbus on the 12z gfs! I'll take that Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow, 10-14 inches for cbus on the 12z gfs! I'll take that Sent from my XT1060 If only it wasn't four days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If only it wasn't four days away! Yeah...such good agreement on models though haha. Good sign! Just hope for no sleet Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow. Say it isn't so! LOL. Well I hope whatever happens it doesn't hinder your plans too bad. yea don't get me wrong. Unfortunately for me, the one thing the models handle well is the timing of these systems and the timing is horrible. Put this thing 24 hrs earlier or later and it would be the best of both worlds....our padded stats and my situation unaffected. Unfortunately we can't order off a menu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It looks like the Canadian spits out two impulses. One that smacks us during the day Sunday, and one that hits areas to the south Monday. Would this help you, buckeye? I can be flexible on the date of our hammering! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Meh Canadian is a miss to the south second wave. Only six inches Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think 6" is a safe bet at this point. I'm not sure the ice storm is really on the table anymore. The NAM is not to be trusted at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Meh Canadian is a miss to the south second wave. Only six inches Sent from my XT1060 So we have solutions that range from ice storm to snowstorm to miss south. That to me is a good position to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think Columbus sees a lot of snow...as in at least 6". Right now the models aren't showing a strong surface low so the warm tongue may not be too bad. Even the 12z Canadian which is for now a southern outlier hits you guys good, the GFS/Euro have a ton of QPF. Ice may get close to or possibly even to Columbus but even if that happens I think you may see some snow before/after. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think Columbus sees a lot of snow...as in at least 6". Right now the models aren't showing a strong surface low so the warm tongue may not be too bad. Even the 12z Canadian which is for now a southern outlier hits you guys good, the GFS/Euro have a ton of QPF. Ice may get close to or possibly even to Columbus but even if that happens I think you may see some snow before/after. We'll see. Agreed. The city just does not have a history with large ice events. They're usually more like December 2004, with lots of snow and then ice, but even those situations are very rare. What typically happens is that a storm forecast to be snow goes too far north, hits with snow at the beginning turning to ice and then rain, or an ice storm ends up as just rain or, less often, snow. Storms just don't start and stay ice here, so whatever the Euro/NAM may be saying about ice, they're going to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro puts all ice fears to bed. 8-10" in franklin county....a foot by the river. Way colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS and Euro both pretty heavy with the precip, but I think the 12z Euro has the snow way too far South. CMH should be sitting pretty IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS and Euro both pretty heavy with the precip, but I think the 12z Euro has the snow way too far South. CMH should be sitting pretty IMO... WxBell maps (if that's what you're looking at) will surely be contaminated on the southern end in a setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec This would be a nice hit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Local mets going for all snow north of I-70..and could be a lot of it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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