vespasian70 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The 6Z has shifted way to the NW (as Buckeye noted it's trend), showning an ice storm of the ages for the I-70 folks now instead of up to 2ft of snow, after a couple inches of front end snow then up to a 1.5" ice over a long period of time (like over 36 hours), that would totally suck! Oh well it's an outlier, come on 12Z!!! I thought the 06z GFS is further SE than the 00z? The 00z run had a lot of rain if I recall? Perhaps it's just a wobble, but hopefully a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 I thought the 06z GFS is further SE than the 00z? The 00z run had a lot of rain if I recall? Perhaps it's just a wobble, but hopefully a trend. Well, well, well. Is this winter going to go out with a bang? Everyone ready for the last hurrah? May as well go out with a bang!! And then>>>SPRING!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I thought the 06z GFS is further SE than the 00z? The 00z run had a lot of rain if I recall? Perhaps it's just a wobble, but hopefully a trend. Actually I was referring to one of the GFS runs yesterday that had the I70 corridor in almost 2ft of snow LOL, then 06Z nixed that... Come on 12Z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec....YIKES!! For some reason this link doesn't bring up the graphic on this page, it's red x'ed. Is there some kind of refresh button? NM fixed it, deleted the periods & YIKES!! and works now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 ggem has come south a bit and I suspect the gfs will as well in future runs. Much like the earlier FEB storm that brought 10" to central OH, the gfs was way nw on that and finally adjusted southeast. This isn't wishful weeniecasting, I just don't see how a storm is going to be able to pop heights out ahead of it enough to go neg tilt, dig and drive it north/northeast with the PV and confluence situated the way the models are showing. Assuming they are correct on that. Much more likely to see waves attacking the pressing high...which could produce some epic snow and ice amounts for someone. I think this could be a nice hit for anyone from I-80 down to KY...with ice being the bigger threat further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 ggem has come south a bit and I suspect the gfs will as well in future runs. Much like the earlier FEB storm that brought 10" to central OH, the gfs was way nw on that and finally adjusted southeast. This isn't wishful weeniecasting, I just don't see how a storm is going to be able to pop heights out ahead of it enough to go neg tilt, dig and drive it north/northeast with the PV and confluence situated the way the models are showing. Assuming they are correct on that. Much more likely to see waves attacking the pressing high...which could produce some epic snow and ice amounts for someone. I think this could be a nice hit for anyone from I-80 down to KY...with ice being the bigger threat further south. I agree. If the setup happens as modeled, the GFS will be too far north. Even so, it's 12z solution is scary with all that ice. December 2004 would look tame in comparison. And the cold it is showing for the first few weeks of March is just incredible. It looks like mid-January, and even then it would be well below normal. I'll have to dig up stats on the coldest first 2 weeks of March and see where we ultimately end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 ggem...classic OV crusher. Approaching 20" on the river nicest part is we actually have room for it to come north....haven't seen that kind of insurance all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 ^^ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 ^^ lol meh, if nothing else it makes a nice screensaver for the cincy crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 So the top 10 coldest means for the first 2 weeks of March in Columbus are as follows: 1960: 18.9 1984: 23.4 1926: 25.6 1932: 26.6 1978: 27.4 1891: 27.8 1912: 28.7 1884: 29.1 1943: 29.6 1980: 29.9 The 12z GFS has the first 2 weeks at around 19.0. Using current averages, that would be 19.9 degrees below normal and the 2nd coldest period ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 So the top 10 coldest means for the first 2 weeks of March in Columbus are as follows: 1960: 18.9 1984: 23.4 1926: 25.6 1932: 26.6 1978: 27.4 1891: 27.8 1912: 28.7 1884: 29.1 1943: 29.6 1980: 29.9 The 12z GFS has the first 2 weeks at around 19.0. Using current averages, that would be 19.9 degrees below normal and the 2nd coldest period ever. so what do we need to get to crack the top 3 snow seasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 <<<<< Thanks for the new avatar! At least i can dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 so what do we need to get to crack the top 3 snow seasons? We had 50.9" through 5pm today, which puts us in 4th. To tie with 1977-78 and 1995-96 at 54.1" for 3rd, we'd only need 3.2". To tie for 2nd, we'd need 11.5". To tie for 1st, we'd need 16.9". If we get mostly snow from the event on the 3rd, anything is possible. BTW, I'm not sure if there has ever been a winter in which saw every month with above normal snowfall November-March, and this season looks to do just that. Normal and 2013-2014 Actual November: 0.9" 4.7" December: 5.0" 12.7" January: 9.7" 17.7" February: 6.1" 15.9" *Through 5pm Today March: 4.2" ? Winters that managed this feat: 1880-1881 (Actually had above normal snowfall ever single month October-April). That's it. 1 winter. It's also very rare to see double-digit snowfall for every month of meteorological winter. Winters that managed this feat: 1909-1910 1935-1936 Just 2. 2013-2014 will likely accomplish both, the only winter in history to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Wow, truly historic and epic winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro continues to slam ohio on the 0z. Over a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Regarding the weekend, Euro held firm overnight and the 06z GFS trended more in our favour. It's starting to peak my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Regarding the weekend, Euro held firm overnight and the 06z GFS trended more in our favour. It's starting to peak my interest. I'm torn on this....the snow weenie in me is saying let's start padding the stat and making a move at the record. The money-earning responsible guy in me says fck this, another week down the drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I'm torn on this....the snow weenie in me is saying let's start padding the stat and making a move at the record. The money-earning responsible guy in me says fck this, another week down the drain. And it looks like whatever falls may be around awhile. Did you see those sub zero lows next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Man, not liking the 06 GFS has the 850s at +2 for DAY late in the storm on Monday and the ground temps at 18 with a ton of QPF!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Well gee. Taking the 06z GFS seriously, that's 12" near Columbus. I would suspect an ice storm is more likely than 12" at Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Well gee. Taking the 06z GFS seriously, that's 12" near Columbus. I would suspect an ice storm is more likely than 12" at Columbus. 2014_02_26_06z_GFS_USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_168.gif that 12" swath is actually fairly north of CMH. Either way the gfs has been trending slowly colder and is still much warmer than the euro and ggem....big red flag. Reminds me of the early FEB storm where the gfs was the furthest north and warmest, only to correct southeast into the euro/ggem camps. That one gave CMH 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 And it looks like whatever falls may be around awhile. Did you see those sub zero lows next week? I had to laugh at that. The record low for March in Columbus is -6, set in 1984. The GFS has -19. I just don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 that 12" swath is actually fairly north of CMH. Either way the gfs has been trending slowly colder and is still much warmer than the euro and ggem....big red flag. Reminds me of the early FEB storm where the gfs was the furthest north and warmest, only to correct southeast into the euro/ggem camps. That one gave CMH 10" Yep, GFS has trended colder with the just about every run the last day or so. But yeah, a really long-duration event no matter what falls, starting on the 1st and ending early on the 5th. That's about as long as PDII. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z GFS continues to trend colder and snowier for CMH. Looks like no mixing on this run, all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z Euro slams most of Ohio with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Maps...amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 Now only 4 days out. . Will it hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Looks like another Ice storm for us currently. Hopefully all snow for everyone in Ohio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z Euro slams most of Ohio with snow. I was actually a bit relieved to see the euro a bit stronger and North. The trend was getting uncomfortably close to this being pushed and bullied southeast...(see 12z ggem) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.