oldlogin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0712 PM CST TUE FEB 04 2014AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AND NERN OH / W-CNTRL AND NWRN PA / FAR WRNNYCONCERNING...HEAVY SNOWVALID 050112Z - 050715ZSUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE FORECASTTO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER N-CNTRL OH AND SPREADDOWNSTREAM ACROSS NERN OH AND AREAS IN NWRN PA AND FAR WRN NY.LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES MAY INTERMITTENTLY APPROACH 2 INCHES PERHOUR OVER NERN OH AND NWRN PA PRIOR TO 06Z.DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVYWINTER PRECIP OVER IN/OH/KY DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS S-CNTRL OH EARLYTHIS EVENING. THE 00Z/05 ILN RAOB DEPICTED A LARGELY SATURATEDCOLUMN WITH A H85 WARM NOSE /-0.5 DEG C/. THE RAPID NWD FLUX OFRELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT /PW 1.3 INCH BNA RAOB/ ADVECTINGINTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY VIA A 75 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORTINCREASING/HEAVY PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ASASCENT/WAA INCREASES.THE 18Z NAM APPEARED TO REASONABLY CAPTURE THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OFTHE LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVER SWRN OH EARLY THIS EVENING COMPARED TOTHE 00Z ILN RAOB. 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANGEOVERFROM SNOW TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW OVER CNTRL OH TOWARDS 04Z.OBSERVATIONS WITHIN THE PAST 30 MINUTES IN DAYTON AND CINCINNATIINDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IS IN THE PROCESS OFOCCURRING--CONFIRMING THIS NOTION OF MIXED P-TYPE MOVING INTO SWRNOH. FARTHER N...A COLDER COLUMN WILL MAINTAIN SNOW AS THE PRECIPTYPE AND RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH PERHOUR RANGE BY MID EVENING. SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT MAY LOCALLYBOOST RATES TO NEAR 2 INCHES PER HOUR AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER NERN OHAND FAR NWRN PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yeah, been watching that huge area of yellow and orange returns heading north towards Franklin County. Either that's going to be very heavy snow, or it's where things switch over. We'll soon find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yeah, been watching that huge area of yellow and orange returns heading north towards Franklin County. Either that's going to be very heavy snow, or it's where things switch over. We'll soon find out. that's gotta be a sleet mix....can't imagine those are snow returns.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I will note the skies didn't really open up here but do have an immediate dusting. Not a fan of that meso discussion though. A little worrisome it comes right over top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 that's gotta be a sleet mix....can't imagine those are snow returns.... Kokomo, IN apparently got 4" in 2hrs so it's possible I suppose. Thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Chris Bradley on his FB says he is getting reports of thunder snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 definitely not pure snow here....some sleet, and even some drops of rain on the window. It's hammering but its definitely 'tainted' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 definitely not pure snow here....some sleet, and even some drops of rain on the window. It's hammering but its definitely 'tainted'Thats not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Thats not good well I'm east of you...how you doin over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Jay, you getting any mix at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 well I'm east of you...how you doin over there?A very fine snow. Doesnt appear 2 b tainted at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Jay, you getting any mix at all? I haven't gone outside to feel anything, but looking at my street light it is absolutely HAMMERING and blowing which doesn't happen with sleet. Don't hear any pellets either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 A very fine snow. Doesnt appear 2 b tainted at this point. yea, its not a big deal...I'd call it 80% snow 20% taint....but not enough taint to hear any pinging, just saw some drops on the window which is indicative of some drops mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Absolutely getting it here. And your window is probably warm. No mixing here ne of ya, Mike, but does sound like sleet but definitely not. I think it's just the fine density. Almost like a white rain it's so fine lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Small size flakes...but it is hammering!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Absolutely getting it here. And your window is probably warm. No mixing here ne of ya, Mike, but does sound like sleet but definitely not. I think it's just the fine density. Almost like a white rain it's so fine lol yea, like I said, no pinging here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Small size flakes...but it is hammering!!Small flakes are best. Big wet flakes means it's about to switch usually and heaviest accums usually are with fine flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayton1996 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Where is the Low, at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The question now is, how much snow do we get before the switch? Which we know is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 The question now is, how much snow do we get before the switch? Which we know is going to happen. Are we still sure about that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 All snow here ( about 5-8 miles East of WPAFB)--But don't know for how long------ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Not seeing mixing here, either, from what I can tell. But I think it's on its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Are we still sure about that?? It's gonna be close. I'm worried about it. I'm hoping the cold air hangs on for the big bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowx467 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Really hammering in Worthington, started around 8/815 and looks to be about an inch already. Not seeing any mixing here right now. Ironically enough during the first burst I went outside and it sounded like there was some sleet mixing in, but now appears to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Are we still sure about that?? Educated guess based on radar and climo. It may not happen until the tail end (best case) or midway through (usual case lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Don't get excited guys, we had 1 hour of snow, then 1 hour of sleet, now a light mix at 23 degrees in SW Greene Co!!! Bust again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Don't get excited guys, we had 1 hour of snow, then 1 hour of sleet, now a light mix at 23 degrees in SW Greene Co!!! Bust again! light? Damn, you got like 35 and 40 DBZ over you according to Doppler lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Probably the most entertaining weather related thing I've been watching online tonight (other than our illustrious forum and radar) is Chris Bradley's FB. Some of the stuff people post on there is a hoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Don't get excited guys, we had 1 hour of snow, then 1 hour of sleet, now a light mix at 23 degrees in SW Greene Co!!! Bust again! Big difference as you're in SW Ohio where an ice storm is expected. We are on the line. You never was unfortunately for you man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Probably the most entertaining weather related thing I've been watching online tonight (other than our illustrious forum and radar) is Chris Bradley's FB. Some of the stuff people post on there is a hoot. You see me? Lol. He started his geek posts cause I always give him a hard time. Go find me. Joshua Dilly lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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