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Let's talk winter!


Steve

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Hey guys, saw you asking about the hrrr. from what I have seen so far this winter it has a tendency to under-do the warm air advection and therefore keeps the 0*C 850 line too far south. I know this is not what most of the CMH crowd wants to hear, but growing up in Pickerington, I know, and I know all of you know, that there is a tendency for that fzra to come up the scioto valley and push the heaviest snow axis north of the city.  The good news is that it is looking pretty good for 3 to 5 inches of snow on the north side of 270 on the front end before the liquid mixes in. I am also concerned with icing potential throughout the city with surface temps between 28 and 31 during the rain. 

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Hey guys, saw you asking about the hrrr. from what I have seen so far this winter it has a tendency to under-do the warm air advection and therefore keeps the 0*C 850 line too far south. I know this is not what most of the CMH crowd wants to hear, but growing up in Pickerington, I know, and I know all of you know, that there is a tendency for that fzra to come up the scioto valley and push the heaviest snow axis north of the city. The good news is that it is looking pretty good for 3 to 5 inches of snow on the north side of 270 on the front end before the liquid mixes in. I am also concerned with icing potential throughout the city with surface temps between 28 and 31 during the rain.

No doubt central ohio is one of the toughest places to forecast. Lol. I told a friend of mine this earlier and it's about the truth.

I think to be a met in Ohio you'd be better to learn the basics of model reading and data analysis with a heavy dose of Ohio climatology and study of past events. Good luck on your call.

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Hey guys, saw you asking about the hrrr. from what I have seen so far this winter it has a tendency to under-do the warm air advection and therefore keeps the 0*C 850 line too far south. I know this is not what most of the CMH crowd wants to hear, but growing up in Pickerington, I know, and I know all of you know, that there is a tendency for that fzra to come up the scioto valley and push the heaviest snow axis north of the city.  The good news is that it is looking pretty good for 3 to 5 inches of snow on the north side of 270 on the front end before the liquid mixes in. I am also concerned with icing potential throughout the city with surface temps between 28 and 31 during the rain. 

 

no worries, if it wasn't for crappy model runs and bad news, we'd have nothing to talk about this afternoon

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Doesn't appear the WPC is buying the 12z nam scenario based on their snowfall maps. Some positive news for ohioans.

 

every single line I've seen....whether it's a probability outline, critical thickness 0 line, or ptype changeover line.....is literally over my house.   I'm waiting for a giant crayon to come crashing down across my backyard.

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Radar is juicy. This is nowcast event. We normally lose on nowcasting. I can think of a monster that hit that we wasn't supposed to get much from, but we got crushed. So who knows.

 

I may regret saying this, but here goes....IF...we have a 'good' surprise, it is usually this type of situation where the dump comes frontend.  The surprise being we hang on longer because the precip is dumping hard.

 

there I said it....that doesn't mean I expect it though.

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every single line I've seen....whether it's a probability outline, critical thickness 0 line, or ptype changeover line.....is literally over my house. I'm waiting for a giant crayon to come crashing down across my backyard.

Could be worse. It could be like most of the time where we're out if the game. The crayon joke was pretty spot in though lol.
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every single line I've seen....whether it's a probability outline, critical thickness 0 line, or ptype changeover line.....is literally over my house.   I'm waiting for a giant crayon to come crashing down across my backyard.

 

LOL. It's going to be extremely close. Probably time to sit back and watch this unfold. Great representation on the radar right now. JB's proverbial finger is point right at you fwiw.

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yea my son just crashed thru my office door to tell me.... That means all the suburbs including Westerville will fall

Kinda silly considering there is still much uncertainty in CMH. Guess they figure regardless of if it's SN or ZR they're gonna cancel. Guess they took plain rain outta the mix.

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Kinda silly considering there is still much uncertainty in CMH. Guess they figure regardless of if it's SN or ZR they're gonna cancel. Guess they took plain rain outta the mix.

 

gonna be a lot of disappointed kids waking up tomorrow morning expecting a playground of 10" of snow, and instead find 2 inches of ice encrusted taint...lol.

 

I already informed my son not to be surprised if we don't get a lot of snow.

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every single line I've seen....whether it's a probability outline, critical thickness 0 line, or ptype changeover line.....is literally over my house.   I'm waiting for a giant crayon to come crashing down across my backyard.

If nothing else you should be nominated for a forum Emmy for funniest posts! They could be called the F-Emmies.

 

Starting with your Animal House inspired missive from a few days ago, nothing is over until we decide it is!

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A lot of virga. Dews are still really low....even Southwest of here. A poster in the other thread said it just started snowing in Evansville. Also in the other thread someone said the 18z NAM went Southeast.

 

Yes Evansville started out as heavy snow during the past hour, dew points seem to be very low (around 20) over the whole area.

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A lot of virga. Dews are still really low....even Southwest of here. A poster in the other thread said it just started snowing in Evansville. Also in the other thread someone said the 18z NAM went Southeast.

 

It's snowing across all of southern/central Indiana per obs, as far east as Muncie.

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