buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 OhioCountyMap_Reduced_New-picsay.jpg Sorry guys. Made a update map. Had to make it using my phone, but I think the writings on the wall. that was my call yesterday....although I'm going with more ice now here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 that was my call yesterday....although I'm going with more ice now here.I'm being generous in thinking the WTOD hold off long enough in the northern portions to get to 3-5" with 1/10 to 1/4 of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 that was my call yesterday....although I'm going with more ice now here. If we do get 3-5 inches of snow and 1/2 of ice..it may get bad around here!! BIG IF!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm being generous in thinking the WTOD hold off long enough in the northern portions to get to 3-5" with 1/10 to 1/4 of ice. rap is still an incredibly close call, doesn't push the 850 line north of us until 90% of precip ends.... but the rap sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not going to worry about models anymore today..i get home at 4:30..just going to watch the radar!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The NOAA point and click tool. If you go to the ILN NOAA forecast region and click down to your location.....next to the text day by day forecast you see a map with a highlighted green square to indicate the corresponding forecast. If you left click and hold down with your cursor arrow on the map...you can move it to a different point on the map by moving your cursor control. Then click that location after letting up on the left key. Then wait for it to load. The forecast for that new selected point then displays. I find it amusing because the forecast changes for such a small physical move. For example...my new forecast for Bellbrook is now for 2 to 4 inches of snow with the ice and freezing rain. Yet if I scroll a couple of miles west to Kettering...their forecast is for 3 to 5 inches. Here is a direct link to the site with Westerville notated. It takes a bit of practice. What is frustrating in situations like this is you can actually see how close you are to the "good stuff" http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.12691600906457&lon=-82.9306411743164#.UvEmEfldWSp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not going to worry about models anymore today..i get home at 4:30..just going to watch the radar!!! Radar isn't right all the time in close calls either. May show snow while we're getting pounded with freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Pray to God the hrrr has some power. And is did well last winter. Not doing well this winter I take it then buckeye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 acsnw_sfc_f15.png Pray to God the hrrr has some power. And is did well last winter. Not doing well this winter I take it then buckeye? I'm not sure how good or bad it's been... I hadn't seen that run yet, but it looks like it went a bit southeast of the previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm not sure how good or bad it's been... I hadn't seen that run yet, but it looks like it went a bit southeast of the previous runIsn't the hrrr and rap the same? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'd use the shortrange, like hrrr and rap more for potential trends....other than that they suck in the later hours. for instance if they start consistently trending southeast or nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sorry guys. Made a update map. Had to make it using my phone, but I think the writings on the wall. SW Ohio I'm not sure will see much snow at all. But wasn't gonna screw around adding a small little section.. Nice map Dilly. Looks like a good call at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Isn't the hrrr and rap the same? Lol I'll be embarrassed if it is ...but I didn't think so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'd use the shortrange, like hrrr and rap more for potential trends....other than that they suck in the later hours. for instance if they start consistently trending southeast or nw. In my experience, the hrrr has done well in the shortrange. It done exceptionally well a couple years back. Nailing every system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'll be embarrassed if it is ...but I didn't think so... Website for the hrrr is rapidrefresh.noaa etc lol. Unless the RAP doesn't mean rapid refresh. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Someone asked where the low is right now. If I'm looking at the right one, it's in the Gulf, about 50 or so miles just to the southeast of the Texas/LA border. The map: http://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US_zoom/contour/current/USZOOM.fronts.gif I don't know where it's supposed to be at this point, though. It looks like it might come ashore in east-central LA, just southwest of New Orleans in a few hours. Either way, we had better hope it maintains its ENE heading as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 moot point now... but the euro held amazingly steady, maybe 20 miles or so nw of 00z. Still shows heaviest axis along and north of I-71 but drops off sig. southeast of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Someone asked where the low is right now. If I'm looking at the right one, it's in the Gulf, about 50 or so miles just to the southeast of the Texas/LA border. The map: http://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US_zoom/contour/current/USZOOM.fronts.gif I don't know where it's supposed to be at this point, though. It looks like it might come ashore in east-central LA, just southwest of New Orleans in a few hours. Either way, we had better hope it maintains its ENE heading as long as possible. cool link....how often does that update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 moot point now... but the euro held amazingly steady, maybe 20 miles or so nw of 00z. Still shows heaviest axis along and north of I-71 but drops off sig. southeast of there. So NAM went NW producing a disaster, GFS/Euro held generally steady, maybe slightly more NW but still okay. This f8cking hobby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 cool link....how often does that update? Every hour from what I can tell. This has been the trajectory so far: http://goo.gl/maps/mu2w0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Has the heaviest axis still nw of cmh, but brings a nice swath through central ohio of 6 - 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Every hour from what I can tell. This has been the trajectory so far: http://goo.gl/maps/mu2w0 yea, the eurp has the low over extreme eastern OH vs. Wheeling...lol By the way, this is the RAP and it consistently brings the low to e. ky. That's a snow track here, I don't care what the 850s show....but it's probably wrong with the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6 hrs out 850 8 hrs out 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Did we maybe call this a little fast? Could still see maybe 4-6" before a mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Can anyone verify how the hrrr has done this year. I haven't tracked any systems really this year so not sure how it's performed this winter. Say the last storm that euro called for 3" we got 8. Just wondering how the hrrr did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Did we maybe call this a little fast? Could still see maybe 4-6" before a mix? I think our best and only shot is a quick front end dump, then we dry slot hopefully instead of frz rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think our best and only shot is a quick front end dump, then we dry slot hopefully instead of frz rain. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014020415&plotName=rvil_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3not showing any real dryslotting concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If radar is any indication we're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014020415&plotName=rvil_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3 not showing any real dryslotting concern. well I hope it is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If radar is any indication we're in trouble. Screenshot_2014-02-04-13-46-36-1.png Try this one as well http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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