pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Can we drop the Philly talk, already? If it was so great, you all would be living there right now. A single season does not cancel out the majority of seasons where we kick their collective *sses on snowfall. Fair enough. But, it just sucks still having family back there who hate snow, while I love it. If I didn't know anyone living back there I wouldn't care at all. Jealousy at it's finest! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 See that's the worst part. Hopefully surface temps rise to near or above freezing or we're going to have severe power outages. Looking at the latest RAP, it's not quite as aggressive with the warm surge which leaves us in situation where we get the ice, but surface temps are colder than on the NAM. Just friggin' great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 HRRR not quite as aggressive either. Lets hope the NAM is on meth again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looking at the latest RAP, it's not quite as aggressive with the warm surge which leaves us in situation where we get the ice, but surface temps are colder than on the NAM. Just friggin' great. With our luck..we will get an inch of ice!!! Let's just hope these latest runs are just some blips..we can hope!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=nam&time=current&field=prec...Gotta just freakin laugh!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fogbreath Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ewww...I think they're acknowledging the changes. NWS is now showing snow, zr and sleet tonight for Upper Arlington, with all zr after 3 AM Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ewww...I think they're acknowledging the changes. NWS is now showing snow, zr and sleet tonight for Upper Arlington, with all zr after 3 AM Sent from my iPhone Yes, ILN cut snow totals in half for the Columbus area. It doesn't mean it's going to be right, but it does mean they're going with the NAM completely. Their latest AFD basically says as much. All about the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yes, ILN cut snow totals in half for the Columbus area. It doesn't mean it's going to be right, but it does mean they're going with the NAM completely. Keeps going it will eventually be all rain!! So amazing how the trend was great for us..and with a model run and within 8 hours of the storm we lose the snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Gfs held its position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherzen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Does it seem like following this storm has been more of a roller coaster than usual? I know we were riding the line as usual but c'mon... As Buckeye said last night we could smell the taint and were golden. Now it looks like we may get the taint! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/snowstorm-today-followed-by-another-one-sunday-into-monday-1/22923522..Do we laugh at Henry..or take him serious...Hmmm..The video!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Even with all the cloud cover..temps rising pretty quick!! They totally took the Heavy snow out of their forecast..now 2-6 inches with mainly sleet and ice..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Does it seem like following this storm has been more of a roller coaster than usual? I know we were riding the line as usual but c'mon... As Buckeye said last night we could smell the taint and were golden. Now it looks like we may get the taint! Ehh it's not so much that. It's more so that the models showed over a foot just 12 hrs ago, now right before the event wanna show zr/rain this far north. Imo you may as well throw models out until 6-8 hrs before an event because after 16 years of doing this they change right before 90% of the time. With that said New map coming. And I'll more than likely be leaning towards 1-3" CMH followed by .20 inches of ice followed by .4 of plain rain to melt it all. No more maps from me until 2hrs before. Tired of being made to look foolish on my facebook beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Take a look at the HRRR 850 Temps--WTOD is rearing its ugly head--Wed 03,04,05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Take a look at the HRRR 850 Temps--WTOD is rearing its ugly head--Wed 03,04,05 Yeah...we kinda know this..we live with this every winter!!! Looks like school may not be closed tomorrow after all!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'll await the Euro, but it may be getting close to calling this one. Will be a pretty epic bust all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 I have to find a new Hobby..this may kill me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'll await the Euro, but it may be getting close to calling this one. Will be a pretty epic bust all around. If the Euro caves (which I think is inevitable) it really shows again how much it is struggling this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ice storm warning just to our south now!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 lol...I'm gone all morning, and this is what I come back too??? Let's face it, there's not one Ohio poster here that's shocked...and if you are, you haven't been doing this very long. These storms that track up the west side of the apps infamously want to go further nw than the models show...for whatever reason. If you notice, it doesn't happen that consistently with other tracks. The sunday night event is a perfect example of the exception. I admit, I got sucked in with my heart as well even though my head was screaming to be skeptical. I have one question....why is it that us weenies who are hobbiest were scratching our heads over ILN's all snow call yesterday, and we have day jobs? That's a serious question. IF this does become an icestorm or rainstorm instead of a snowstorm, (which looks very likely), shame on ILN. They clearly discounted, trends, history, model biases, etc. and spewed out the gfs. Why do we need humans in that office then, why not have an automated forecast generated by a blend of a couple of different models? Rant over. I'll continue to watch the short range stuff but Im hoping for plain rain if our options are between that or getting greater than .25 ice. Like I said in the other thread, an icestorm is exciting for 12 hours, and misery for days after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 lol...I'm gone all morning, and this is what I come back too??? Let's face it, there's not one Ohio poster here that's shocked...and if you are, you haven't been doing this very long. These storms that track up the west side of the apps infamously want to go further nw than the models show...for whatever reason. If you notice, it doesn't happen that consistently with other tracks. The sunday night event is a perfect example of the exception. I admit, I got sucked in with my heart as well even though my head was screaming to be skeptical. I have one question....why is it that us weenies who are hobbiest were scratching our heads over ILN's all snow call yesterday, and we have day jobs? That's a serious question. IF this does become an icestorm or rainstorm instead of a snowstorm, (which looks very likely), shame on ILN. They clearly discounted, trends, history, model biases, etc. and spewed out the gfs. Why do we need humans in that office then, why not have an automated forecast generated by a blend of a couple of different models? Rant over. I'll continue to watch the short range stuff but Im hoping for plain rain if our options are between that or getting greater than .25 ice. Like I said in the other thread, an icestorm is exciting for 12 hours, and misery for days after. No sooner after you write this, ILN changes my point from 3-7 to 4-8 snow/sleet. What are they doing over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 I have a bad feeling that we may get a lot of ice..just a gut thing!! Radar is quite impressive whatever we get!! NAM has us at 3/4 ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I have a bad feeling that we may get a lot of ice..just a gut thing!! Radar is quite impressive whatever we get!! NAM has us at 3/4 ice! one thing that might save us is it's harder to get good accretion with heavier rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 No sooner after you write this, ILN changes my point from 3-7 to 4-8 snow/sleet. What are they doing over there? Pondo, you have a link to the point and click? Believe it or not I don't lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 one thing that might save us is it's harder to get good accretion with heavier rain 2004 ice storm was pretty heavy was it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Pondo, you have a link to the point and click? Believe it or not I don't lol My bad, maybe I shouldn't have referred to it as my "point" forecast. It is the verbal daily forecast when you type in your city/zip. What is "point" exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Where exactly is the LOW right now? That is important! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 2004 ice storm was pretty heavy was it not? I mean the intensity of the falling rain. If its really pouring...I don't know the exact science behind it, (latent heat release??) but heavy falling rain has a tougher time building up when it's freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sorry guys. Made a update map. Had to make it using my phone, but I think the writings on the wall. SW Ohio I'm not sure will see much snow at all. But wasn't gonna screw around adding a small little section.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Where exactly is the LOW right now? That is important! My bad, maybe I shouldn't have referred to it as my "point" forecast. It is the verbal daily forecast when you type in your city/zip. What is "point" exactly? I don't know...lol I always hear people refer to 'point and click' forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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