buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 After looking at 6z runs, I think even moreso that ILN is way too bullish on snow here. It's going to be EXTREMELY close but I think more realistically we may have a bigger issue with ice. 6z rgem is basically an icestorm here and amps the storm bringing it in furthest west. NAM held serve though. It's pretty much nowcast time. If nothing else, should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 After looking at 6z runs, I think even moreso that ILN is way too bullish on snow here. It's going to be EXTREMELY close but I think more realistically we may have a bigger issue with ice. 6z rgem is basically an icestorm here and amps the storm bringing it in furthest west. NAM held serve though. It's pretty much nowcast time. If nothing else, should be interesting. then again, I'm just a weenie with a day job....what the hell do I know lol ILN's morning update: FROM THE DAYTON/COLUMBUS METRO AREAS NORTHWARD...AN ALL SNOW EVENT IS FORECAST. MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE HIGHEST QPF AND THUS HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RUN RIGHT ACROSS THE DAYTON AREA...AND JUST NORTH OF COLUMBUS. TOTALS ALONG THIS SWATH OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL COULD RECEIVE UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah, I thought the 6Z runs were a complete disaster. The GFS now has us on the razor's edge, the NAM was not only warmer, but significantly drier, and the RGEM went west. Could be a blip, but I have no confidence in the forecast from ILN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 then again, I'm just a weenie with a day job....what the hell do I know lol ILN's morning update: FROM THE DAYTON/COLUMBUS METRO AREAS NORTHWARD...AN ALL SNOW EVENT IS FORECAST. MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE HIGHEST QPF AND THUS HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RUN RIGHT ACROSS THE DAYTON AREA...AND JUST NORTH OF COLUMBUS. TOTALS ALONG THIS SWATH OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL COULD RECEIVE UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS STORM. I'm not sure that was updated from previous discussion? I clicked on the red Highlight Changed Discussion -- up top and nothing changed to red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah, I thought the 6Z runs were a complete disaster. The GFS now has us on the razor's edge, the NAM was not only warmer, but significantly drier, and the RGEM went west. Could be a blip, but I have no confidence in the forecast from ILN. nam looked ok, (unchanged) on the map panels regarding track, but I didn't check soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hires 6z nam still had that frontend thump to freezing drizzle look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hires 6z nam still had that frontend thump to freezing drizzle look to it. At this point that is our only and best shot at some heavy snow. Big front end thump followed by the WTOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At this point that is our only and best shot at some heavy snow. Big front end thump followed by the WTOD. ILN updated my point forecast to 6-10 tonight and 1-2 tomorrow. LOL More egg on their face coming in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You can't envy ILN right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You can't envy ILN right now. Agreed, but based on 6z guidance I would have lowered the snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Granted that ILN has not been great this year at snow forecasts, but are you guys going off mainly the NAM or just your expectations given the past? I'm not sure either one is any more reliable at this point than what ILN has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Granted that ILN has not been great this year at snow forecasts, but are you guys going off mainly the NAM or just your expectations given the past? I'm not sure either one is any more reliable at this point than what ILN has. Well after 12z run of NAM, there is that and there is history. Warm air always seems to win here. I am not saying there won't be an impact here, but to me it is getting more clear that it will be a lot more ice. BUT, the NWS will wait until like 3 or 4 to change. That is the frustrating part to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well after 12z run of NAM, there is that and there is history. Warm air always seems to win here. I am not saying there won't be an impact here, but to me it is getting more clear that it will be a lot more ice. BUT, the NWS will wait until like 3 or 4 to change. That is the frustrating part to me. Not saying there won't be ice or that it won't even be a major part of the storm, but the NAM is always known for it's warm/NW bias and the rest of the model consensus is not that warm/NW, so placing so much faith in it seems to be a direct result of expectation rather than what may or may not happen. For me, at this point I think 5-6" is a pretty good bet with some mix at some point. Less mix, more snow, obviously. The people calling for 2" for Columbus are going to bust hard, imo. Even the NAM doesn't go that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not saying there won't be ice or that it won't even be a major part of the storm, but the NAM is always known for it's warm/NW bias and the rest of the model consensus is not that warm/NW, so placing so much faith in it seems to be a direct result of expectation rather than what may or may not happen. For me, at this point I think 5-6" is a pretty good bet with some mix at some point. Less mix, more snow, obviously. Well I hope you are right, but the trends are bad the last couple of runs. Which is crazy considering how great things looked at 0z last night. I hope the GFS whiffs to the south! LOL Now I will say that the NAM did this exact same thing with the last storm over the weekend for the Chicago area and things weren't nearly as far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Granted that ILN has not been great this year at snow forecasts, but are you guys going off mainly the NAM or just your expectations given the past? I'm not sure either one is any more reliable at this point than what ILN has. ILN may very well be correct - I just think they are not in a very enviable position. Damned if they do, damned if they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well I hope you are right, but the trends are bad the last couple of runs. Which is crazy considering how great things looked at 0z last night. I hope the GFS whiffs to the south! LOL Now I will say that the NAM did this exact same thing with the last storm over the weekend for the Chicago area and things weren't nearly as far NW. Yeah, the 12z NAM is just awful for us. It's almost a complete miss to the north of all snow. It doesn't have any major support right now and I just don't see such a major change at the last minute very likely. I notice everyone in the other thread takes it as gospel, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ILN is considering dropping totas for columbus pending rest of 12z data. Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ILN is considering dropping totas for columbus pending rest of 12z data. Sent from my XT1060 They have been leaning heavily on the NAM since the beginning and that's what made their actual snowfall forecast strange. It would seem they are using it now almost exclusively still. If the rest of the models move in its direction, then it may be time to throw in the towel, but for a bit longer at least, it's on its own for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Throw in the towel??? So we get some ice along with the snow..far cry from a whiff!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 4km nam takes us above freezing with .17 plain rain! Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ILN is considering dropping totas for columbus pending rest of 12z data. Sent from my XT1060 Wagons NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 4km nam takes us above freezing with .17 plain rain! Sent from my XT1060 4km nam takes us above freezing with .17 plain rain! Sent from my XT1060 If we get plain rain out of this i will laugh and be done with winter!! Now the other thread can lean on one run again and try to bring back Mr. Happy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Lol...the trend continues to just be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Too early to throw in the towel. Why are we panicking over the long range models now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Too early to throw in the towel. Why are we panicking over the long range models now? "It's over Johnny" RGEM came in further NW too. These are not blips. You can kind of tell by radar look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Throw in the towel??? So we get some ice along with the snow..far cry from a whiff!! If the Euro/GFS, etc. trend in NAM's direction, yeah, I'll be throwing up the white flag. I was pessimistic early on with this one, but the models all moving SE and trending colder through less than 24 hours out should've been enough to keep us in the storm. Maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Lol...the trend continues to just be a disaster. Meanwhile my friend, back in Philly area, another 10 yesterday north of the city. Sigh....... And, things looking pretty good for them this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Meanwhile my friend, back in Philly area, another 10 yesterday north of the city. Sigh....... And, things looking pretty good for them this weekend. Can we drop the Philly talk, already? If it was so great, you all would be living there right now. A single season does not cancel out the majority of seasons where we kick their collective *sses on snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 If this does trend NW..and not to far..we could be in for an ice storm...just great!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If this does trend NW..and not to far..we could be in for an ice storm...just great!!! See that's the worst part. Hopefully surface temps rise to near or above freezing or we're going to have severe power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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