vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 can't wait to read their AFD, just this morning they were respecting the heck out of the nam.... apparently now they've decided to throw it in the trash. Check out the NAM 18Z BUFKIT. Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Check out the NAM 18Z BUFKIT. Hmmm... what's it showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 what's it showing? .544 Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Columbus is looking pretty good imo. My money would be on a period of tainting but not before a nice dumping of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Columbus is looking pretty good imo. My money would be on a period of tainting but not before a nice dumping of snow. I agree front end thump and some taint... The good news is this is a front loaded system so precip will be heavy early on. Maybe the taint will end up as light freezing drizzle. Just enough to laminate our snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140203&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CMH&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=39.69424657087826&mLON=-84.1611830078125&mTYP=roadmap Trending better each run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z GFS goes ultra weak over here. A little over .4 for the entire duration. We've been so focused on temps.. We really need to iron out the qpf totals as well. The GFS underplaying? If not then I think 3-5" across I70 even if we remain all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140203&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CMH&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=39.69424657087826&mLON=-84.1611830078125&mTYP=roadmap Trending better each run! NMN1 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GUYS ITS OVER. The weather channel has 1-3 for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 .544 Snow. For CMH? I just ran it and is has under .50" snow before changing to ZR. Plus the precip type algorithm goes nuts trying to forecast snow with a huge warm bulge up high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 these forecasters better hope the nam is wrong....still not budging, in fact a hair nw of 18z. Has a lot more front end thump but also a definite icy changeover. Definitely NOT all snow. Pretty much word is out in local media that we're in for 8-10" ....I don't think any mets I watched tonight brought mix into Columbus. Who knows, maybe the nam is an outlier....we're pretty much in short range though,...maybe one more run on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 these forecasters better hope the nam is wrong....still not budging, in fact a hair nw of 18z. Has a lot more front end thump but also a definite icy changeover. Definitely NOT all snow. Pretty much word is out in local media that we're in for 8-10" ....I don't think any mets I watched tonight brought mix into Columbus. Who knows, maybe the nam is an outlier....we're pretty much in short range though,...maybe one more run on this one. Looked to me like we get front end thump then go to a mix with the light stuff...huge hit. Maybe I read the maps wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looked to me like we get front end thump then go to a mix with the light stuff...huge hit. Maybe I read the maps wrong? I'll run BUFKIT which goes to 1 hour intervals when it's out. Almost impossible to really tell from lower temporal resolution maps what falls as snow vs ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looked to me like we get front end thump then go to a mix with the light stuff...huge hit. Maybe I read the maps wrong? we do, but it's still a tad warmer at 850 and the track is a bit nw....at least it appears to be on the maps. But yes thump is thankfully front loaded. I just wonder if mix changeover comes sooner. Could also be the nam's infamous last gasp attempt at a nw jog, which often corrects back se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KCmh.txt Wow. Talk about razor's edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 we do, but it's still a tad warmer at 850 and the track is a bit nw....at least it appears to be on the maps. But yes thump is thankfully front loaded. I just wonder if mix changeover comes sooner. Could also be the nam's infamous last gasp attempt at a nw jog, which often corrects back se. I believe it did this w/ storm sat-sun west of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KCmh.txt Wow. Talk about razor's edge. yea I just saw that too.... thankfully nam is the 'warmest' of the pack. Need to see hourly breakdown to get a good handle on what it's spitting out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I believe it did this w/ storm sat-sun west of here That's right, didn't it show rain to Chicago at one point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 For CMH? I just ran it and is has under .50" snow before changing to ZR. Plus the precip type algorithm goes nuts trying to forecast snow with a huge warm bulge up high. The 18Z was: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=nam&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 18Z was: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=nam&time=current&field=prec I bet the 00z will show about a 30 70 split, snow frz rain.... just a hunch.... that would be ugly if we don't sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That's right, didn't it show rain to Chicago at one point?I thnk, but i know at 1 point it showed them getting a lot more snow b/c of nam jogging north. NAM also pooped the bed w/ very late model runs leading up 2 our clipper parade 2 wknds ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I bet the 00z will show about a 30 70 split, snow frz rain.... just a hunch.... that would be ugly if we don't sleet Waiting on the data to initialize on the bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I thnk, but i know at 1 point it showed them getting a lot more snow b/c of nam jogging north. NAM also pooped the bed w/ very late model runs leading up 2 our clipper parade 2 wknds ago. the biggest diff with the nam is it takes the low due north to cincy then across southern OH to PIT which allows the wtod at 850 to come in further west, whereas the other models are going more east northeast along the WV, OH border which caps the wtod. it's also why there is such a strong frz rain signal...and less of a sleet signal. The warm air bullies in fast and warms everything but the surface, but gets shunted back out just as quickly. If this was a slower moving storm the nam would probably be changing us to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 How did the NAM do with last night's storm along the river? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 How did the NAM do with last night's storm along the river? not sure, I never really followed that too closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z NAM for CMH: 0.98" snow and .18" ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z NAM for CMH: 0.98" snow and .18" ice wow...that literally has to be by the pubic hair of an elf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 wow...that literally has to be by the pubic hair of an elfLMAO! where do u come up with these?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 probably quickcrete ratios too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 wow...that literally has to be by the pubic hair of an elf Lol...you sir are an artist with imagery! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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