JayPSU Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 uk... the concensus strengthens. Weaker as well from 00z Dead balls on with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Dead balls on with the GGEM. it's a lot colder though, although that might be a uk bias. 850s at or below for all but the extreme se part of the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Tuesday Night Cloudy with a mixture of winter precipitation. Low 31F. Winds NE at 10 to 20 mph. Snow and ice accumulating 5 to 8 inches. Cincy Weather here. Give it 10 minutes it will jump down to 1-3.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 on wxbell the ggem snowline is a bit south of the 00z. Basically the axis of heaviest (6-8") is west to east along I-70 but about 60 miles north of I-70 on the north edge and 10 miles south of I-70 on the south edge. Also the GEFS have the low in WV closer to VA than to OH...so basically the ens match the OP pretty well with that southeast solution. on the northern edge it's more west to ne...so it does hit CLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 euro locked in...same as 00z. 850 0 line gets to about Fayette county. Axis of heaviest, (disclaimer wxbell), is pretty much I-71 cincy to Cle. 8-10" amounts Hard to imagine this track won't hold but being this close, I'm sure it'll come down to nowcasting. Overall we dodged the nw bullet today and now inside of 48hrs. Think it's safe to say we are getting a winterstorm, big question is if, and how much sleet and freezing rain mix and where that happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 some local reports out of the Charleston West Virginny office that probably annoy you guys. ---- PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1211 PM EST MON FEB 03 2014 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0500 AM SNOW 1 WNW AMESVILLE 39.41N 81.97W 02/03/2014 M5.0 INCH ATHENS OH COCORAHS 24 HOUR SNOWFALL. 0656 AM SNOW 3 NW JACKSON 39.08N 82.71W 02/03/2014 M7.8 INCH JACKSON OH CO-OP OBSERVER 24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER 0700 AM SNOW 2 SSE ATHENS 39.29N 82.08W 02/03/2014 M7.5 INCH ATHENS OH COCORAHS 24 HOUR SNOWFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow what a pain in the ass map to make lol... working on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 looking at everything today, I would say you take gfs and euro and nam and mix 'em up and weight them each 1/3rd. For Columbus I'd go with 2-4" of snow changing over to a period of sleet and freezing rain with moderate ice accums possible ending as snow with an additional inch or less. Low end warning. The nam is being stubborn and that's definitely a red flag for the mixing issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 looking at everything today, I would say you take gfs and euro and nam and mix 'em up and weight them each 1/3rd. For Columbus I'd go with 2-4" of snow changing over to a period of sleet and freezing rain with moderate ice accums possible ending as snow with an additional inch or less. Low end warning. The nam is being stubborn and that's definitely a red flag for the mixing issue. Thought NAM baby stepped again, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm more or less taking a mix of every model but the NAM. model guidance between the others are close and that throws up a red flag for me with regards to the NAM. with that said, I may make a final adjustment tomorrow, but as for now this is my call on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Thought NAM baby stepped again, no? it did...baby mouse steps....but it's hellbent on not joining the other models.....I would change my forecast to snowier if the nam caves more at 00z...but never discount the nam when it's in the shortrange and is the furthest nw. no matter what I do think we don't ever go to plain rain. Will be interesting to see what ILN does. I suspect they'll put us all to a warning and include the next tier south of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Dilly, that looks like a really good call....definitely could see that play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Will be interesting to see what ILN does. I suspect they'll put us all to a warning and include the next tier south of counties. Point and click forecast has us in 3"-5" for Tues night with mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Point and click forecast has us in 3"-5" for Tues night with mixing issues. Ummm scratch that. Just updated us, ALL snow 4"-8". Must be tossing the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 storm 2.jpg I'm more or less taking a mix of every model but the NAM. model guidance between the others are close and that throws up a red flag for me with regards to the NAM. with that said, I may make a final adjustment tomorrow, but as for now this is my call on it. I like it. I think it is smart to at least include mixing like you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 And depending on where I click, 5"-9". Winter storm warning just issued too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Good map dilly! I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ummm scratch that. Just updated us, ALL snow 4"-8". Must be tossing the NAM? hmmm, I 'don't know bout that. My experience is every winterstorm where the nam was flirting with us, it seems to win out. Granted we have another run, maybe two where it could trend se with the others, but it could also go the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ILN updated map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 can't wait to read their AFD, just this morning they were respecting the heck out of the nam.... apparently now they've decided to throw it in the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 And ILN produces the kiss of death again, WSWarnings now issued for 8 to 10 inches IMBY of Greene Co.! The last two times they did this we got 5.5" (my biggest so far so not bad, but still big bust before xmas) and the last time was the Jan 5 debacle when we got low 40s & rain while IND got crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 And ILN produces the kiss of death again, WSWarnings now issued for 8 to 10 inches IMBY of Greene Co.! The last two times they did this we got 5.5" (my biggest so far so not bad, but still big bust before xmas) and the last time was the Jan 5 debacle when we got low 40s & rain while IND got crushed! I think rain is out of the question this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Dilly, that looks like a really good call....definitely could see that play out I had 5 - 9 in the counties now marked 4-8" just too worried with mixing and I'm fairly confident that by going 4-8 I'll at least hit the low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 And ILN produces the kiss of death again, WSWarnings now issued for 8 to 10 inches IMBY of Greene Co.! The last two times they did this we got 5.5" (my biggest so far so not bad, but still big bust before xmas) and the last time was the Jan 5 debacle when we got low 40s & rain while IND got crushed! being west you're in better shape of escaping the tongue... I'm just really surprised they've got 8-10" in Franklin. I hope they're right. I guess there is model support for it.... but apparently they decided to go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Fwiw me and buckeye's total predictions early yesterday are what nws has gone with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ILN updated map.Cool about falls in line with my thinking. Their issue is they don't give enough leeWay in their map. Should say 6-10 not 8-10.. or if they're confident in 8" do 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Cool about falls in line with my thinking. Their issue is they don't give enough leeWay in their map. Should say 6-10 not 8-10.. or if they're confident in 8" do 8-12" Also, notice that the 8"-10" area hits a brick wall in the NE? I doubt the cutoff will be that sharp if the this forecast pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ILN is calling for a top 10 February snowfall for Columbus by that map. I don't know if that's very wise, but I guess we'll see. It'd be on the order of February 5-6 and 15-16, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Also, notice that the 8"-10" area hits a brick wall in the NE? I doubt the cutoff will be that sharp if the this forecast pans out. Probably a result of the low transferring to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Also, notice that the 8"-10" area hits a brick wall in the NE? I doubt the cutoff will be that sharp if the this forecast pans out. More time spent dealing with the WTOD further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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