wxdudemike Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 interestingly wxbell maps for the 12zz euro bring the heaviest axis of snow right across franklin county I-70 special....8-10" If you look at the 850 map on wxbell it looks like we're above frz at that level. I think it's a case of the snow maps generate snow from ANY form of frozen precip. Looks like a monster ice storm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Outside of the NAM, the models are pretty much in agreement. I think the wild card is how quickly the WTOD can be cut off as the storm moves easterly after reaching W VA. Going to be a really close call no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If you look at the 850 map on wxbell it looks like we're above frz at that level. I think it's a case of the snow maps generate snow from ANY form of frozen precip. Looks like a monster ice storm to me. yea I agree. The good news is 850s crash faster than the 00z was showing. Bad news is it's also colder at the surface so we could be talking a lot of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 per usual, those 'safely' in the all snow area may have a trade-off of less qpf. The jackpot snowstorm will be whereever the mix/snow line sets up. You gotta smell the sleet if you want the big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 per usual, those 'safely' in the all snow area may have a trade-off of less qpf. The jackpot snowstorm will be whereever the mix/snow line sets up. You gotta smell the sleet if you want the big snows.Yep. When you're biting your nails along the rain snow line, you can generally cash in. I know better than to think that CLE is safe from mixing, even though the euro has been adamant about not mixing for the past several runs. Regardless, even if this stays all snow, I'm not expecting anything major (i.e.foot+ blizzard). A general 4-8" swath somewhere seems realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Is anyone else in the thread in the game for some wet snow tonight? Models really brought this wave back from the dead for tonight and several inches may be possible in far southern Ohio tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 euro ens rock solid and same as before...maybe even a bit east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 euro ens rock solid and same as before...maybe even a bit eastLuv 2 hear that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 U guys remember Jerry Martz? He used to be on channel 6 & fox 28. He posted on his facebook that it will be an all rain event here? Not sure what he is looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Frz. rain totals came down and snow went up!! That's the right step!! http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 U guys remember Jerry Martz? He used to be on channel 6 & fox 28. He posted on his facebook that it will be an all rain event here? Not sure what he is looking at. he either believes it will trend nw...or he's going with the nam. Although the nam is moving southeast now and the 18z is now all frozen for us in cmh....not sure what exactly...but it appears to keep surface below freezing the entire storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 ILN defending the decision not to put out a watch yet, (which seems way too early anyways), mentioned the possibility that even places that stay all snow in the nw may not reach warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Haha 18z GFS says 2-4" of snow. Nothing else. Jeez. Weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Haha 18z GFS says 2-4" of snow. Nothing else. Jeez. Weak. for who? I find that hard to believe if you're talking cmh and all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 ILN defending the decision not to put out a watch yet, (which seems way too early anyways), mentioned the possibility that even places that stay all snow in the nw may not reach warning criteria. As per the nam.. The text data 850's stay well above freezing, 2m temps above freezing as well for cmh. As per 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 As per the nam.. The text data 850's stay well above freezing, 2m temps above freezing as well for cmh. As per 18z. that's believable with the track the nam shows. What doesn't look believable is the 2-4" all snow amounts.....the gfs shows the .5 line getting very close to cmh in one panel alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS NAM There's the text data for the GFS and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS Screenshot_2014-02-02-17-16-48-1.png NAM Screenshot_2014-02-02-17-14-24-1.png There's the text data for the GFS and NAM ok, but how do you get .49 qpf as 2-4"? Ratios shouldn't be that bad....even 10:1 is 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 ok, but how do you get .49 qpf as 2-4"? Ratios shouldn't be that bad....even 10:1 is 5" Taking everything into account. Even an hour switch to anything but snow would drop snow totals dramatically. Guess it's all in how you forecast. If a model shows .5 the safe bet would be to assume .35 or so. If a model shows 1.5" all snow. The best bet would be to go with 12" especially in the situation with this storm with models all over the place with temps and qpf amount. The nam has around an inch. The euro almost an inch and a half then the gfs with a half inch. And gem isn't nearly as strong now either. So I think if the gfs is correct... 2-4" maybe 3-5" would be the safe bet. But it's the 18z which I personally don't pay much attention to. I use them to see if trends continue. We need the nam and euro qpf and the gfs temps. But we both know that's extremely unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/429886661938257920/photo/1/large?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=BigJoeBastardi&utm_content=429886661938257920..8 day snowfall total...would be nice...but i have seen so many different takes on this storm thay my head is spinning!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 congrats southern OH....damn I'm jealous, radar looks awesome. Someone is gonna get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nice if this is all snow!!!http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 congrats southern OH....damn I'm jealous, radar looks awesome. Someone is gonna get slammed. Radar sweeps don't look bad for here either. Maybe a surprise couple inches? Definitely moving North/Northeast. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Radar sweeps don't look bad for here either. Maybe a surprise couple inches? Definitely moving North/Northeast. Something to keep an eye on. Radar sweeps don't look bad for here either. Maybe a surprise couple inches? Definitely moving North/Northeast. Something to keep an eye on. A surprise 1-2 would be ok by me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 per usual, those 'safely' in the all snow area may have a trade-off of less qpf. The jackpot snowstorm will be whereever the mix/snow line sets up. You gotta smell the sleet if you want the big snows. ILN point and click has it as snow and sleet Tues night. Hopefully the chances of an ice storm here keep dwindling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 A surprise 1-2 would be ok by me!! So far just virga here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Virga here in Bellbrook as well...even though by radar it has been snowing for a couple of hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 In regards to Tue/Wed - I think we look pretty good. Two days out and all we need is a shift by a couple of counties south to get into the good stuff. Plenty of time for that to happen too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We're in a spot now where a GFS/NAM compromise would be a good thing. We'd still see some mixing, but we'd get the higher snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We're in a spot now where a GFS/NAM compromise would be a good thing. We'd still see some mixing, but we'd get the higher snowfall totals. So in other words the EURO. Haha. Or close to it. I'm scared to put out a map lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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