Steve Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=641619662551962&set=pcb.641619742551954&type=1&theater..can live with this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 wxbell shows widespread 6-10 across much of ohio and Indiana....I would imagine some of that from I-70 south in ohio is frozen but not necessarily all snow. Southern OH gets a nice concentrated dump from the sunday night wave....up to about Chillicothe where it lightens up....nothing for here on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 euro stepped in a good direction... 850 line makes it as far north as I-70 briefly, which is a big improvement... and surface temps stay at or below freezing. Still would imply something messy and mixy vs. all snow....but it's the coldest, best run for us in the last few. good runs this afternoon. We are still riding the edge so hopefully this trend continues and isn't just a burp that corrects itself nw again. Well sucked us back in! Oy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 a lot of that in southern OH is from the sunday night wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well sucked us back in! Oy! I've upgraded myself to cautiously optimistic vs. cautiously pessimistic. Key word is still 'cautiously'. We've all done this long enough to know there's plenty of time for a sudden bump nw ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 a lot of that in southern OH is from the sunday night wave Ok..game back on!! Let's just frame this please!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 according to the euro, we'll be done with this one and already tracking another one 2-3 days away...similar situation probably dissecting the 850s again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Local mets still don't know what to forecast..most are saying,a lot of ice or snow..much rather have the snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think ice will be our main concern here in the I70 corridor, unless we get a dramatic shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think ice will be our main concern here in the I70 corridor, unless we get a dramatic shift south. Thing is..it would be quite a bit of ice..not good!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Thing is..it would be quite a bit of ice..not good!! I think as modelled with temps hoovering near freezing may help us a bit. The most devastating ice storm we had (Dec 2004) was driving rain with temps in the upper 20s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think as modelled with temps hoovering near freezing may help us a bit. The most devastating ice storm we had (Dec 2004) was driving rain with temps in the upper 20s! I'm not really good with soundings but my bet would be sleet for us...or...as you said a 'warm' freezing rain, in other words rain at 31 or 32 where it's cold but not enough to cause good accretion. but overall we're not where we need to be in the models yet, or at least where I feel comfortable. We need about 50-75 miles further southeast.... a very tall order. ok I gotta go or my wife is gonna kill me if I don't get off the computer. No access to models tonight so don't screw things up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm not really good with soundings but my bet would be sleet for us...or...as you said a 'warm' freezing rain, in other words rain at 31 or 32 where it's cold but not enough to cause good accretion. Agreed. The 2nd worst outcome from this storm would be sleet. Ugh! I hate that CMH is ALWAYS riding the line on these type of events. We have to fret over every inch of snow we get here it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Agreed. The 2nd worst outcome from this storm would be sleet. Ugh! I hate that CMH is ALWAYS riding the line on these type of events. We have to fret over every inch of snow we get here it seems. And we're even further east than columbus.. about 2 hrs til 0z starts to roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Agreed. The 2nd worst outcome from this storm would be sleet. Ugh! I hate that CMH is ALWAYS riding the line on these type of events. We have to fret over every inch of snow we get here it seems. I hate sleet..serves no purpose for me at all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec---4 inches of snow and over 1/2 inch..of ice..only 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We're still in a good spot folks... Trends are in our favor for a change. The low seems destined for SW PA making a hard right to the east coast. The wtod is the wild card in terms of how far north it can get. Still a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 00z GFS solution isn't half bad (or that unrealistic). Looks like that would be a decent swath of 5-8" from DAY to CMH to CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-3774-0-10126900-1391335157.gif...Talk about riding the line..good grief!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-3774-0-10126900-1391335157.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-3774-0-10126900-1391335157.gif....Always riding that line!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'd rather have sleet than ice. Hopefully the SE trend continues and we won't be talking ice storm this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS is now all snow. Ironic considering its solutions just a day or so ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS is now all snow. Ironic considering its solutions just a day or so ago. And the NAM is rain. How long before it starts to cave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 And the NAM is rain. How long before it starts to cave?It may not. Euro went NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It may not. Euro went NW... Not by much and it looks colder for CMH to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It may not. Euro went NW... It was pretty close to 12z, a tick nw. That being said I would have liked to see more trend se. I'm worried that we are now where we usually are in the modeling, the nam is furthest nw, the gfs furthest se, and the euro/ggem are in the middle but closer to the se side. Moving forward from here you'd expect a gfs/nam compromise which would suck for us, probably cold rain primarily. Not losing the hope, just keeping it real. We'll see what happens today but my gut is an overall correction nw...a little bit. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It was pretty close to 12z, a tick nw. That being said I would have liked to see more trend se. I'm worried that we are now where we usually are in the modeling, the nam is furthest nw, the gfs furthest se, and the euro/ggem are in the middle but closer to the se side. Moving forward from here you'd expect a gfs/nam compromise which would suck for us, probably cold rain primarily. Not losing the hope, just keeping it real. We'll see what happens today but my gut is an overall correction nw...a little bit. Hope I'm wrong. Considering where we were when the day began yesterday, I fail to see how we could see anything but positives. Hell, the Canadian last night was almost a whiff to the SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Considering where we were when the day began yesterday, I fail to see how we could see anything but positives. Hell, the Canadian last night was almost a whiff to the SE! yea we'll see. I'm not worried about the nam so much, it's more the general idea that the furthest southeast solutions, even with the euro and the ggem are still close calls with snow/rain....so basically there is no room for error nw....and that might be a tall order considering we're still about 60 hours out. As far as the nam...I think it was ORH_wxman that said it shouldn't be run past 48 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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