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Let's talk winter!


Steve

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What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

It tells you just how badly we've been beaten by the nw trend this year.  We've lost our collective sacks.  

Look at us, we are throwing in the towel on a storm that is still 5-6 days away from being in position to come out of the gulf states.  We are talking NEXT Tuesday at the earliest....we still have Friday and the entire weekend to go thru.   Energy is still out in the pacific with the carnival cruisers and there are 2 or 3 smaller storms modeled in front of it affecting the Midwest and eastcoast  between now and Monday.   Speaking of which, the models have already screwed up one of those storms and suddenly the Mid Atlantic is in play for accumulating snow Monday.   On top of all of this we have seemed to forgotten that there ARE models giving us a solid track and big snows...the ggem (which has been rock solid consistent), and the ukmet,    The euro ens are southeast and the gefs have been consistently southeast.

 

Now suddenly we decide that the gfs OP is without flaw beyond 120 hours, (the same gfs that was consistently giving us a snowstorm January 5th up until about 48 hours out).  On top of that the euro burps nw,  and what do we do?

 

We all sh*t our collective OV briefs, pick up our snow shovels and walk away like beaten dogs.    For godsakes gentlemen go down swinging, don't leave the fight before the energy has even been sampled.   Look what happened last weekend, we were all whining about how we'd get the usual dusting to an inch and we came out of the weekend with 10".  Anyone see that one coming?  Anyone?   Oh yea wait....the GGEM did!   The euro said 3".   I will not give up nor should you...and if that low does decides to visit CMH at least it'll be passing over men with their sacks intact.  Carry on.

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you can see the diff between the gfs 00z (which was colder and further southeast)  vs. the 06z which came in warm and nw.

 

the confluence is still there on the 06z which is a good thing, but the gfs handles the energy in the trough totally different, rushing a piece out ahead and going neg tilt which of course would be a bad thing.  It's a pretty big change from one run to another, so I'm skeptical but we'll see if that's a trend it keeps.

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one of the reasons I haven't let go of this yet and think it's too early to do so. (not just that I'm a stubborn weenie).   These are the euro ens for 120 and 132 from 00z.   The greatest cluster go from central TN to western VA.   Dramatically southeast, not just a little bit.   It means there must be some other options on the table that are much more suppressed.

Granted I'd feel better if the gfs started to make a move in a better direction.

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Game, set, match. Can someone else recall a time that the GFS scored a coupe (obviously basing this on thinking the Canadian and Euro will be going west today as well.

 

well I said a couple days ago IF the gfs scores a coupe, this would be the way it does it, by having the furthest nw solution.   I don't think I've ever seen the gfs score a coupe being the farthest southeast.

 

If ggem caves west, I'll prepare myself for rain...but I'll still watch models thru 12z tomorrow.   

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I'm going to be rooting for an early spring if we get missed again on a big storm.  1x is enough, 2x is awful, but it may be 3x just a week after that. That's enough to sour me on winter for a good long while. 

I couldn't agree more! I hate empty promises more than watching a looping GFS that just shows a mild pattern with no shots of snow. What a rocking February! LOL

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