Let's talk winter!

[JayPSU]

12Z GFS shows a faster change to snow...and lots of it.

[oldlogin]

And for the record here is IND's HWO

 

.WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR OVERSPREADING
THE REGION...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND SLEET
THURSDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WINTRY MIX OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH A LIGHT ICING
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY
FRIDAY EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES
ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A TERRE HAUTE TO
NOBLESVILLE TO MUNCIE LINE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IF YOU HAVE
TRAVEL PLANS...PLEASE KEEP ADVISED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$

EDIT--This was a Special Weather Statement and Not an HWO-----

[jbcmh81]

I guess I'll throw the, 'what could go wrong for CMH', on the table.

First event gets pushed further southeast and we get whiffed to the south with nothing more than rain ending as snowshowers. Second event starts out as an hour of sleet changing to rain and ending as flurries as the low drives up thru central OH. Followed by brutal cold and dry until the next rainstorm.

hmmm, hopefully that squashes the jinx.

 

We haven't had a good mix event since late January, 2009.  I remember us riding the line during the 2009-2010 winter on several events, but we always stayed snow.  Same with 2010-2011 and really 2012-2013.  2011-2012 barely had anything, but I don't remember a lot of mix.  The point is that we have been going against climo for a few years now.  We're probably due for a big mix event.

[jbcmh81]

Are we ready to buy into this yet?

 

If it verified, it'd likely be the event of the winter.

[Steve]

If it verified, it'd likely be the event of the winter.

I agree..TWC saying someone is going to get .50 or more of Ice..yikes!! Bring the snow please!

[pondo1000]

Hey C-bus gang, how long before Ganahl throws out the old, "The pattern that sets up in December is the pattern we usually get the whole winter."

[vespasian70]

Hey C-bus gang, how long before Ganahl throws out the old, "The pattern that sets up in December is the pattern we usually get the whole winter."

I hope his trope is correct this year - Dec 4th and we are already on page 3 of this thread.

 

I can do without the ice however.

[buckeye]

ILN issued a Watch....most of the area excluding northwestern most counties (due to a higher warning criteria). Overall calling for a 4-6" event. Didn't say much about the sunday night potential. One event at a time I guess.

[buckeye]

Not to put too many carts in front of the horse, but could we be talking about a Third potential system next Tuesday? Gfs ensembles and GGEM are hinting at another system riding up the boundary?

[pondo1000]

ILN issued a Watch....most of the area excluding northwestern most counties (due to a higher warning criteria). Overall calling for a 4-6" event. Didn't say much about the sunday night potential. One event at a time I guess.

DE County left out of watch for now it looks like

[jbcmh81]

ILN issued a Watch....most of the area excluding northwestern most counties (due to a higher warning criteria). Overall calling for a 4-6" event. Didn't say much about the sunday night potential. One event at a time I guess.

 

It would be a decent event for early December, but certainly not the major storm that some of the modeling has been showing.  And I mean for Event #1.

[vespasian70]

DE County left out of watch for now it looks like

Licking county too. I'm sure as the event approaches they will add more.

[buckeye]

I missed what 'The Great White Nunally' had to say tonight....aka Gym Ganahl. What's he spewing about this event?

[vespasian70]

I missed what 'The Great White Nunally' had to say tonight....aka Gym Ganahl. What's he spewing about this event?

4" to 6" of snow on the backside after a ton of rain.

[Steve]

Yeah...Licking county not included in the watch!!

[vespasian70]

This might come in handy: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/winter_monitor.php

 

First time I've noticed ILN putting up a "winter page".

[HighTechEE]

ILN just upped the totals for tomorrow in the Dayton area:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/precipgraphics/

 

12Z NAM for late tomorrow afternoon looking serious!
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=033ℑ=data/nam/12/nam_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

and GFS lining up too, but just a bit slower:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036ℑ=data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

[buckeye]

ILN upgraded all of central OH to a WSW....was an advisory when I woke up this morning.  Models look good.   Looks like the 'event' sunday night will be a light freezing rain to cold light rain transition.  It probably won't hurt the snowpack too much.  In fact the very cold temps coming in after the snowpack has absorbed all that water should give us a nice 'glaciated' snow cover.

[JayPSU]

I'm surprised there's so little chatter going on here within a day of a major winter storm! For once the GFS has led the charge in recent runs for greater qpf amounts in our area the last few runs. The most recent 12z run showed well over an inch qpf in the form of snow for the event. The NAM was at .778" qpf in the form of snow. Either way, looks like our first 6"+ snowfall of the year!

[buckeye]

I'm surprised there's so little chatter going on here within a day of a major winter storm! For once the GFS has led the charge in recent runs for greater qpf amounts in our area the last few runs. The most recent 12z run showed well over an inch qpf in the form of snow for the event. The NAM was at .778" qpf in the form of snow. Either way, looks like our first 6"+ snowfall of the year!

 

Yep...might have to dub this the 'Rodney Dangerfield Storm' if it pans out like the recent models are showing.   But I agree with you,  for example I read a recent reply from one of the mets here in our subforum who scoffed at the idea of this being a 6"+ event for anyone northeast of Oklahoma.  He could be right though....who knows.  Either way, 6" would be a major event for 80% of this subforum with the way our winters have been recently.   I think a reason for the lack of respect is that it's not really a 'storm', (in the traditional low pressure definition).   Everyone here wants a wound up storm coming out of the gulf, as though those are so common...and when they do happen it's a narrow swath of winners in a vast sea of losers.   There's almost a perception that those types of storms are common place....most of our snowfall in this subforum is a result of clippers, and postfrontal snows, unless you live in a LES favored area.

 

Btw, "our first 6"+ snowfall of the year"??   Jay, I think it would be our first 6"+ snowfall since 2010 if I'm correct.  I'm gonna go 5" imby....it just always seems like trying to get a 6"+ snowstorm here is like threading a needle with welders gloves on.   Although I must say, I can't really see the usual pallet of what can go wrong with this storm.   Still time to find a way I suppose.

[JayPSU]

it isn't all snow...............which is probably worse.

The amounts I listed were the snow amounts, there is also additional qpf in the form of sleet and freezing rain, but those amounts were the amount of qpf in the form of snow which was substantial.

[buckeye]

it isn't all snow...............which is probably worse.

 

you know, I'm beginning to wonder exactly how much IS going to fall as rain.   I'm thinking much less than originally thought.   Last night Ganahl showed his model giving us almost 1.5" of qpf, (mostly rain at the beginning), with 4-6" of snow at the end.   I'm looking at radar and we might be hard pressed to get .5" of rain before the changeover to whatever slop and eventually snow it transitions to.

[Hoosier]

The amounts I listed were the snow amounts, there is also additional qpf in the form of sleet and freezing rain, but those amounts were the amount of qpf in the form of snow which was substantial.

 

For CMH, the GFS has a warm layer <1C from about 800-750 mb until 18z tomorrow, all the while 850 mb temps are below freezing.  Whether it's right, I don't know, but I would think that mixing could be a lingering issue if it is. 

[buckeye]

For CMH, the GFS has a warm layer <1C from about 800-750 mb until 18z tomorrow, all the while 850 mb temps are below freezing.  Whether it's right, I don't know, but I would think that mixing could be a lingering issue if it is. 

 

I saw that in the text data....sleet storm is definitely on the pallet of what could go wrong.

[jbcmh81]

Yep...might have to dub this the 'Rodney Dangerfield Storm' if it pans out like the recent models are showing.   But I agree with you,  for example I read a recent reply from one of the mets here in our subforum who scoffed at the idea of this being a 6"+ event for anyone northeast of Oklahoma.  He could be right though....who knows.  Either way, 6" would be a major event for 80% of this subforum with the way our winters have been recently.   I think a reason for the lack of respect is that it's not really a 'storm', (in the traditional low pressure definition).   Everyone here wants a wound up storm coming out of the gulf, as though those are so common...and when they do happen it's a narrow swath of winners in a vast sea of losers.   There's almost a perception that those types of storms are common place....most of our snowfall in this subforum is a result of clippers, and postfrontal snows, unless you live in a LES favored area.

 

Btw, "our first 6"+ snowfall of the year"??   Jay, I think it would be our first 6"+ snowfall since 2010 if I'm correct.  I'm gonna go 5" imby....it just always seems like trying to get a 6"+ snowstorm here is like threading a needle with welders gloves on.   Although I must say, I can't really see the usual pallet of what can go wrong with this storm.   Still time to find a way I suppose.

 

Columbus technically had about 2 6" events last winter.  The one on December 29, 2012 dropped 5.9" and March 5-6, 2013 dropped 7".  Before that, you have to go back to January 20, 2011, where a storm dropped 5.7". 

[JayPSU]

Well, we always have good ole Hoosier to tell us what could go wrong! Of course a sleet storm is always possible, but hopefully with the larger rates we cool the column sufficiently for snow.

[jbcmh81]

Top 10 Snowiest First 10 Days of December in Columbus

 

1. 1957: 8.5"

2. 1917: 8.4"

3. 1984: 7.3"

4. 1958: 7.0"

5. 1977: 6.8"

6. 1902: 5.9"

7. 2007: 5.7"

8. 1880: 5.4"

9. 1966: 5.0"

10. 1962, 1974: 4.9"

 

With the exception of 1974, these winters were generally colder and/or snowy.  We could easily see a top 5 snowiest first 10 days after this week.

[jbcmh81]

Well, we always have good ole Hoosier to tell us what could go wrong! Of course a sleet storm is always possible, but hopefully with the larger rates we cool the column sufficiently for snow.

 

My guess is that this will be a mostly snow event more than anything.  We will likely see some mixing for a time overnight, but this isn't a traditional setup that keeps the warm air flooding in.

[Hoosier]

Well, we always have good ole Hoosier to tell us what could go wrong! Of course a sleet storm is always possible, but hopefully with the larger rates we cool the column sufficiently for snow.

 

No need to be snarky, just pointing out a small warm layer that wouldn't be obvious if you're not looking at the entire column. 

[buckeye]

No need to be snarky, just pointing out a small warm layer that wouldn't be obvious if you're not looking at the entire column. 

 

I appreciate the info.... I welcome all of the potential 'what could go wrong scenarios'....for two reasons, first it neutralizes disappointment, and second, inevitably it's the one scenario you never consider that usually kills you.