jbcmh81 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Columbus dropped again to -8. Must be passing clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fogbreath Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 A few degrees warmer starting my work day (-8 vs. -12 yesterday.). Getting home Monday night with the wind chill still was the coldest I felt during the last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 anyone notice the wave(s) for the weekend seem to be coming in a bit further south and colder? Still mixy here but a definite trend towards colder. As far as next week, I'm not buying any solution. In fact the thing is 7 days out, I didn't even stay up for the euro, I had feeling it was gonna do the suppression thing after seeing it's ensembles and the trend of the other 00z mos. 12z could just as easily be back to a bomb over cincy. The euro ens don't look that bad....looks like the mean track is up thru TN,WV and off the midatlantic. I'm still amazed at the relentless cold and stormy pattern that the models seem to be showing, there is almost no rest for the weary. And it won't be long before I'm one of those weary. When subzero temps don't feel that 'bad', you know it's been a crazy winter. Imagine what 32+ will feel like this weekend....short sleeves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 anyone notice the wave(s) for the weekend seem to be coming in a bit further south and colder? Still mixy here but a definite trend towards colder. As far as next week, I'm not buying any solution. In fact the thing is 7 days out, I didn't even stay up for the euro, I had feeling it was gonna do the suppression thing after seeing it's ensembles and the trend of the other 00z mos. 12z could just as easily be back to a bomb over cincy. The euro ens don't look that bad....looks like the mean track is up thru TN,WV and off the midatlantic. I'm still amazed at the relentless cold and stormy pattern that the models seem to be showing, there is almost no rest for the weary. And it won't be long before I'm one of those weary. When subzero temps don't feel that 'bad', you know it's been a crazy winter. Imagine what 32+ will feel like this weekend....short sleeves! Even the Euro trended further south this weekend so very interesting. You are right about next week, but man, what potential. We need that west to east look with cold air dumping which seems to be plausible with the pattern. This kind of pattern reminds me of when we are in the opposite looking for that "cool" down in the long range and it never comes. Now, the warm up keeps getting pushed back with false -PNA signals always in the long range. Eventually that will change, but I am hoping we can cash in before that and then lets bring on an early Spring! Today's high will be like 18. That is going to feel balmy! So funny how the body acclimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 looks like if the goal is to preserve snowpack.....the nam might be the model to root for. It keeps most of the rain north of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Even the Euro trended further south this weekend so very interesting. You are right about next week, but man, what potential. We need that west to east look with cold air dumping which seems to be plausible with the pattern. This kind of pattern reminds me of when we are in the opposite looking for that "cool" down in the long range and it never comes. Now, the warm up keeps getting pushed back with false -PNA signals always in the long range. Eventually that will change, but I am hoping we can cash in before that and then lets bring on an early Spring! Today's high will be like 18. That is going to feel balmy! So funny how the body acclimates. The -PNA doesn't even guarantee a warm-up anyway, not with the -AO and especially the -EPO looking to stick around. The 6z GFS has the first 2 weeks of February at more than 18 degrees below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z euro was a big hit for the fantasy storm next week. Just 13 more runs to go. Saw pics of the snowrollers in the columbus area. Incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z euro was a big hit for the fantasy storm next week. Just 13 more runs to go. Saw pics of the snowrollers in the columbus area. Incredible! Yeah, it's all downhill from here. It does not bode well to be in the bullseye 13 euro runs out! That being said, I'd rather be in the euro bullseye now than the GFS', crappy or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah, it's all downhill from here. It does not bode well to be in the bullseye 13 euro runs out! That being said, I'd rather be in the euro bullseye now than the GFS', crappy or not. 2nd that for sure!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah, it's all downhill from here. It does not bode well to be in the bullseye 13 euro runs out! That being said, I'd rather be in the euro bullseye now than the GFS', crappy or not. Well, it's just one run so a lot will change. Who knows if the storm will even exist on the models over the weekend. Get this inside 3 days then I'll start to take each model run a little more seriously. Fun to watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I like being in the Canadian and Euro bullseyes much more than the GFS. But yes, it's so far away and this weekend's event isn't even being modeled very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The euro setup looks more reasonable...or at least less rare. It's basically the gfs solution but displaced further south. The ggem would be threading the perfect needle here. 989 over Charleston WV with that pressing HP would most likely be blizzard conditions. But when was the last storm to take a track like that? Maybe March'08? December '04? We're talking once in a 5 yr track at best. It's funny how it seems like a meterological impossibility for a strong low to cut thru eastern KY into WV, and instead it'll always end up nw cutting thru central Ohio to CLE. One way to look at it is that eventually the law of averages would begin to make it likely...at some point..lol The best we can take away from everything right now is a system is going to get it's act together in the gulf states and head north/northeast/or east while highs are building in and with very cold air poised to our immediate north. That's about all I feel comfortable believing....strength of low, track of low, and how much warmth advects north is up for grabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The euro setup looks more reasonable...or at least less rare. It's basically the gfs solution but displaced further south. The ggem would be threading the perfect needle here. 989 over Charleston WV with that pressing HP would most likely be blizzard conditions. But when was the last storm to take a track like that? Maybe March'08? December '04? We're talking once in a 5 yr track at best. It's funny how it seems like a meterological impossibility for a strong low to cut thru eastern KY into WV, and instead it'll always end up nw cutting thru central Ohio to CLE. One way to look at it is that eventually the law of averages would begin to make it likely...at some point..lol The best we can take away from everything right now is a system is going to get it's act together in the gulf states and head north/northeast/or east while highs are building in and with very cold air poised to our immediate north. That's about all I feel comfortable believing....strength of low, track of low, and how much warmth advects north is up for grabs. I was jus sitting here thinking now where is the storm on the Euro at day 5. Usually you can take that to the bank. Now from there where does she go and how strong? Once in 5 years yes, in regards to the big one, but guess what? It is almost 6 years since the March '08 biggie so we're do! Don't forget the track record of the Canadian as of late...not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The euro setup looks more reasonable...or at least less rare. It's basically the gfs solution but displaced further south. The ggem would be threading the perfect needle here. 989 over Charleston WV with that pressing HP would most likely be blizzard conditions. But when was the last storm to take a track like that? Maybe March'08? December '04? We're talking once in a 5 yr track at best. It's funny how it seems like a meterological impossibility for a strong low to cut thru eastern KY into WV, and instead it'll always end up nw cutting thru central Ohio to CLE. One way to look at it is that eventually the law of averages would begin to make it likely...at some point..lol The best we can take away from everything right now is a system is going to get it's act together in the gulf states and head north/northeast/or east while highs are building in and with very cold air poised to our immediate north. That's about all I feel comfortable believing....strength of low, track of low, and how much warmth advects north is up for grabs. No kidding. A favorable track is a rarity for most of OH... outside of the NW corner. If nothing else, we are overdue. I'll take the OP runs with a grain of salt until the storms get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 We are now getting into the time frame when things get interesting. Maybe, just maybe the stars will align for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Calling for a low of 2 tonight...hmmm...wonder how that will play out..-5 -10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 No kidding. A favorable track is a rarity for most of OH... outside of the NW corner. If nothing else, we are overdue. I'll take the OP runs with a grain of salt until the storms get closer. just posted in the main storm thread that euro ens look good for us. Mean takes low from AL to WV and even shows some sort of secondary over the western Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Obviously today's models look great, but I've been doing this long enough to know this is exactly what you DON'T want to see. Granted, sometimes the models are pretty spot on in the day 6-8 range with the huge storms, then move or lose the storm, only to come back close to where they were.Unfortunately the NAO/AO do not really favor us getting clobbered. These aren't the end all, but they do play a major role. Two things to watch: First, Euro holding energy back too long in the SW which is a known bias. (Allows the PV to slide east and not phase well) Also the GFS is just a bit too slow with that northern stream energy to allow it to bomb NW. Subtle change in the speed of that wave and you will get a radically different (warmer) solution.So in general, I'm not too optimistic about next week but I also don't think it's a zero threat. It's fun having something to watch and we certainly aren't out of the game. Also, you're right on the odds of having a big one. Seems like this year or next year might be about time for a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Obviously today's models look great, but I've been doing this long enough to know this is exactly what you DON'T want to see. Granted, sometimes the models are pretty spot on in the day 6-8 range with the huge storms, then move or lose the storm, only to come back close to where they were. Unfortunately the NAO/AO do not really favor us getting clobbered. These aren't the end all, but they do play a major role. Two things to watch: First, Euro holding energy back too long in the SW which is a known bias. (Allows the PV to slide east and not phase well) Also the GFS is just a bit too slow with that northern stream energy to allow it to bomb NW. Subtle change in the speed of that wave and you will get a radically different (warmer) solution. So in general, I'm not too optimistic about next week but I also don't think it's a zero threat. It's fun having something to watch and we certainly aren't out of the game. Also, you're right on the odds of having a big one. Seems like this year or next year might be about time for a monster. I think everyone here knows the drill all too well and no one is counting the inches before they fall. I have to admit, I keep waiting (expecting) that nightmare euro run showing a 995 over CMH.....I just hope if it occurs it's sooner rather than later. I'd say if the euro is sticking to this 72 hours out, might be time to raise an eyebrow....that's still 3 or 4 days away. That being said, I cannot think of another time this season when model concensus was hammering us, even in the 6-7 day range. This is unchartered territory. What usually happens is one or two rogue runs show a hit here followed by an immediate adjustment to a Chicago, I-80, Detroit event...lol. It's funny how the euro can zero in on a Chicago threat 6 days out and never waiver, yet when it shows one for us, it's a temporary pit stop. As far as indices, the king has been the -epo and that shows no signs of changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 just posted in the main storm thread that euro ens look good for us. Mean takes low from AL to WV and even shows some sort of secondary over the western Carolinas Good to hear. I'll ride the ensembles until this storm gets close. Here's what the BUF NWS had to say in the long range. They are usually spot on and going with a more southern track. THE NEXT BUNDLE OF ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM WILL EJECT OUT OF OLD MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING SFC LOW OVER SRN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN GULF WILL THEN CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN AS IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WELL DEVELOPED 1000MB LOW WILL BE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SHIELD OF STEADY SNOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Latest snowfall totals in WNY so far this year. Perrysburg should break 300+ this winter. BATAVIA: 52.0"BUFFALO NWS: 80.6"COLDEN: 173.5"FRANKLINVILLE: 63.0"JAMESTOWN: 69.0"LYNDONVILLE: 49.5"NIAGARA FALLS: 48.8"NORTH TONAWANDA: 42.3"OLEAN: 36.5"PERRYSBURG: 219.0"PORTAGEVILLE: 37.0"PORTLAND: 74.5"SILVER SPRINGS: 85.4"WALES: 123.1"WARSAW: 147.1"WELLSVILLE : 26.8"YOUNGSTOWN: 53.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I tried to read thru ILN's AFD about this weekends waves and now I have a raging headache. ...and still have no idea what they're forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 just posted in the main storm thread that euro ens look good for us. Mean takes low from AL to WV and even shows some sort of secondary over the western Carolinas This is the most positive thing I can take away from today's model runs. A transfer is what we really need - once that occurs everything else should fall into place over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I tried to read thru ILN's AFD about this weekends waves and now I have a raging headache. ...and still have no idea what they're forecasting. True that. The last sentence however says it all: THE ECMWF BY ITSELF HAS NOT SHOWN EXEMPLARY RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 local tv mets seem more bullish about this weekend than what I was gathering from model watching. Both mets I watched have a couple of inches Friday morning....change to mix and back to snow on Saturday. Models looked a lot more wet to me than that. Gelber has the Tues/Wed as snow to mix to rain to snow....obviously using the gfs. Bradley just mentioned the possibility of a winterstorm with several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Newark may go below zero again tonight, already down to 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 local tv mets seem more bullish about this weekend than what I was gathering from model watching. Both mets I watched have a couple of inches Friday morning....change to mix and back to snow on Saturday. Models looked a lot more wet to me than that. Gelber has the Tues/Wed as snow to mix to rain to snow....obviously using the gfs. Bradley just mentioned the possibility of a winterstorm with several inches. Ohweather posted the euro text output in the northern ohio thread. Mild and rainy book ended by a few inches up this way. Certainly not the worst scenario. The mild temps don't last long so snow cover shouldn't take a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Newark may go below zero again tonight, already down to 5. Yup, -4. Quite a drop in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Down to -6. The record low for this date is -5. 3rd night in a row we have set record low temps. Hard to believe we will be talking about rain in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Chris Bradley is really beating the snow drums for next week on his facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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