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Let's talk winter!


Steve

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Was just browsing some F6 data for the Ohio sites and came across this little interesting bit.

During the media frenzy "polar vortex" blitz, the daily departure at CMH on January 7th was minus 28. Contrast this to two weeks prior when on December 21st CMH recorded a departure of plus 31.

It really puts into perspective how certain extreme weather events are blown out of proportion. 30 degrees below normal is news, 30 degrees above in winter is just another day.

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Was just browsing some F6 data for the Ohio sites and came across this little interesting bit.

During the media frenzy "polar vortex" blitz, the daily departure at CMH on January 7th was minus 28. Contrast this to two weeks prior when on December 21st CMH recorded a departure of plus 31.

It really puts into perspective how certain extreme weather events are blown out of proportion. 30 degrees below normal is news, 30 degrees above in winter is just another day.

I'm not sure that's completely accurate. You need to keep in mind what each of those mean. The negative departure yields an extreme temperature. The positive one, while abnormal for December is not a crazy temperature. And it does typically make the news (more so) when there are record warm temps. This was just one cold outbreak the media actually couldn't ignore.

Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk

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The latest GFS run gives us close to 6" of snow through the 20th. Something to watch at least.

 

It better I'm going to the 50th Hocking Hills Annual Winter Hike this Sat:  http://www.hockinghills.com/winter_hike.html

 

We have not had any cold or snow for this event since Jan.'09!

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=hocking+hills+annual+winter+hike&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=GTrVUoaYAfOosQSOkIGQDA&sqi=2&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAQ&biw=1536&bih=779

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The latest GFS run gives us close to 6" of snow through the 20th. Something to watch at least.

 

Yeah, and it looks to stay cold through the end of the month... well, for now anyway.  No big storm to follow and no record cold to follow, which is good.  I'm fine with successive, small events that add up over time and moderately below normal to normal temps.  Far less hype and far less disappointment.

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The 12Z GFS, if verified through the end of the month, would give Columbus its 4th coldest January of all-time, with a mean of just 18.5 degrees.  This would be colder than every other January except 1918, 1940 and 1977.  The last 10 days of the month average just 3.5 degrees.

 

This isn't long-range stuff, either.  It's moving in Tuesday.

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The 0z GFS is the coldest run yet for the last 10 days of January.  The average temp it shows would be just 0.9 degrees (2.6 degrees colder than 12z), and the monthly mean would be 18.1, only 0.3 degrees warmer than the 3rd coldest January on record.  It has highs of 0 or below on 4 consecutive days with a minimum high of -7.  This would match the all-time record low maximum set in February 1899, and would be the lowest January high ever. 

 

Do I think it will happen? No, not really.  But it's easily one of the coldest runs I've ever seen.

 

Highs and Lows for the last 10 days of the month per the 0z.

 

22nd 11 1 23rd 10 -5 24th 19 7 25th 24 5 26th 30 -7 27th -7 -20 28th -2 -19 29th 0 -13 30th 0 -18 31st 14 -12
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...more on the euro cold...

by hr 240 (Monday the 27th)  the core of cold settles in an area between Springfield OH and Indianapolis where readings are between -19 and -22.   CMH is around -18.

 

We would be approaching top 3 coldest if verified.

 

It's extremely rare to have more than one major cold outbreak during the same winter here.  I'm going to define major as any 2 consecutive lows below -5, since that seems to be fairly difficult to do around here.  Getting just one is hard enough.

 

Winters that saw 2 or more outbreaks with consecutive lows below -5 and the dates of those outbreaks.**Indicates that the outbreaks were within the same month.  ***Indicates more than 2.  ****Indicates one-time only or special conditions.

1883-1884**

January 5th-7th: -16, -20, -5

January 25th-26th: -15, -6

 

1884-1885**

February 10th-11th: -10, -11

February 20th-22nd: -9, -8, -5

 

1894-1895

January 12th-13th: -8, -7

February 8th-9th: -8, -5

 

1904-1905**

February 2nd-3rd: -6, -6

February 13th-14th: -7, -8

 

1917-1918**** Only winter with 4.

December 9th-11th: -8, -8, -9

January 12th-13th: -13, -6

January: 20th-21st: -10, -6

February 4th-5th: -7, -10

 

1935-1936

January 22nd-24th: -16, -15, -9

February 18th-19th: -7, -6

 

1950-1951

December 27th-28th: -14, -10

February 2nd-3rd: -13, -10

 

1962-1963***

January 23rd-25th: -14, -15, -6

January 28th-29th: -15, -13

February 26th-27th: -10, -11

 

1976-1977**** Only year to have more than 2 in the same month.

January 12th-13th: -8, -14

January 16th-18th: -13, -19, -8

January 28th-29th: -8, -9

 

1981-1982**

January 10th-11th: -11, -6

January 16th-17th: -11, -16

 

1983-1984

December 24th-26th: -12, -12, -5

January 20th-21st: -7, -16

 

1984-1985

January 19th-21st: -5, -19, -16

February 3rd-4th: -10, -9

 

1989-1990****One of 2 winters to feature 4 consecutive lows below -5.

December 16th-18th: -7, -12, -7

December 21st-24th: -10, -17, -14, -11

 

1993-1994****2nd of 2 winters to feature 4 consecutive lows below -5.

January 15th-16th: -6, -8

January 18th-21st: -17, -22, -9, -15

 

That's it.  Just 14 since 1878, or about 1 per decade.  That average, however, is skewed by the 1980s that had 4.  The 1920s, 1940s, 1950s and 2000s had 0.  Several others came close, but most of those just had one major and then a smaller one that didn't meet the criteria.  These winters are not necessarily the coldest on record, although many of them are in the top 25. 

 

For a reminder, here's what 2013-2014 has so far:

January 6th-7th: -7, -7

 

Here's what the 12z GFS showed coming:

January 27th-31st   :-15, -15, -15, -8, -9

 

That would be the first time to have 5 consecutive days with lows below -5 if verified.  I'm not sure what the Euro has for those days.

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