vespasian70 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Got down to -8 here this morning. Not as impressive as forecasted. The pattern looks to reset this weekend - warm then colder around the 15th. Maybe the second half of January will be kinder to us after the thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 The "official" low for today's date here in Saginaw, MI was -7° set in 1012. The airport broke it with -11° this morning. I had -14.3° on my gauge. The low record for tomorrow is -8° but they aren't expecting that one to be broke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Was just browsing some F6 data for the Ohio sites and came across this little interesting bit. During the media frenzy "polar vortex" blitz, the daily departure at CMH on January 7th was minus 28. Contrast this to two weeks prior when on December 21st CMH recorded a departure of plus 31. It really puts into perspective how certain extreme weather events are blown out of proportion. 30 degrees below normal is news, 30 degrees above in winter is just another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Was just browsing some F6 data for the Ohio sites and came across this little interesting bit. During the media frenzy "polar vortex" blitz, the daily departure at CMH on January 7th was minus 28. Contrast this to two weeks prior when on December 21st CMH recorded a departure of plus 31. It really puts into perspective how certain extreme weather events are blown out of proportion. 30 degrees below normal is news, 30 degrees above in winter is just another day. I'm not sure that's completely accurate. You need to keep in mind what each of those mean. The negative departure yields an extreme temperature. The positive one, while abnormal for December is not a crazy temperature. And it does typically make the news (more so) when there are record warm temps. This was just one cold outbreak the media actually couldn't ignore. Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The latest GFS run gives us close to 6" of snow through the 20th. Something to watch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The latest GFS run gives us close to 6" of snow through the 20th. Something to watch at least. It better I'm going to the 50th Hocking Hills Annual Winter Hike this Sat: http://www.hockinghills.com/winter_hike.html We have not had any cold or snow for this event since Jan.'09! https://www.google.com/search?q=hocking+hills+annual+winter+hike&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=GTrVUoaYAfOosQSOkIGQDA&sqi=2&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAQ&biw=1536&bih=779 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The latest GFS run gives us close to 6" of snow through the 20th. Something to watch at least. Yeah, and it looks to stay cold through the end of the month... well, for now anyway. No big storm to follow and no record cold to follow, which is good. I'm fine with successive, small events that add up over time and moderately below normal to normal temps. Far less hype and far less disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The other models still say the GFS is on crack. ILN not buying into that super clipper either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 For those wondering about jym ganahl, http://www.nbc4i.com/story/24448907/jym-ganahl-shares-his-story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 For those wondering about jym ganahl, http://www.nbc4i.com/story/24448907/jym-ganahl-shares-his-story I'm glad he is doing better. Thanks for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Looks like the NAM is getting on board regarding the weekend clipper. The Euro looks like it is taking steps in that direction too, although they're baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 Some nice light snow falling right now..dusting on the ground!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The other models still say the GFS is on crack. ILN not buying into that super clipper either. Clippers are, easily, our most consistent annual snowmakers, and they're also the events that tend to over perform forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 CMH riding the line again. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 CMH riding the line again. LOL Not according to radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Not according to radar. Radar looking good..heading right at us!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The 12Z GFS, if verified through the end of the month, would give Columbus its 4th coldest January of all-time, with a mean of just 18.5 degrees. This would be colder than every other January except 1918, 1940 and 1977. The last 10 days of the month average just 3.5 degrees. This isn't long-range stuff, either. It's moving in Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherzen Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I hope these clippers do over perform. It would be a shame to have another cold shot with very little to no snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Radar kind of fell apart! ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Looks like a narrow heavy band of snow moving into the area. The 18z NAM give us close to 5" or 6" over the weekend. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The 0z GFS is the coldest run yet for the last 10 days of January. The average temp it shows would be just 0.9 degrees (2.6 degrees colder than 12z), and the monthly mean would be 18.1, only 0.3 degrees warmer than the 3rd coldest January on record. It has highs of 0 or below on 4 consecutive days with a minimum high of -7. This would match the all-time record low maximum set in February 1899, and would be the lowest January high ever. Do I think it will happen? No, not really. But it's easily one of the coldest runs I've ever seen. Highs and Lows for the last 10 days of the month per the 0z. 22nd 11 1 23rd 10 -5 24th 19 7 25th 24 5 26th 30 -7 27th -7 -20 28th -2 -19 29th 0 -13 30th 0 -18 31st 14 -12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The band of snow moving through the Dayton area is as heavy as we have seen all year...no wind....but heavy snow....big flakes. Temp about freezing. Note that at this hour Indy has dropped to 13 and its in the single digits in central Illinois. Roads will be very slick soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherzen Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I swear on radar it looks like that hole in the nice heavy band coming up I-71 will go right over my house in NW Columbus. Grrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I swear on radar it looks like that hole in the nice heavy band coming up I-71 will go right over my house in NW Columbus. Grrrr. Hah, I have been thinking the same thing. Someone is going to get screw holed here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 We have about 1/4 to 1/2 in like 15 minutes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 for those fellow buckeyes into this kind of misery....from the 12z euro. I should mention that it appears to only get worse beyond this as the vortex is still continuing to press Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 ...more on the euro cold... by hr 240 (Monday the 27th) the core of cold settles in an area between Springfield OH and Indianapolis where readings are between -19 and -22. CMH is around -18. We would be approaching top 3 coldest if verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 ...more on the euro cold... by hr 240 (Monday the 27th) the core of cold settles in an area between Springfield OH and Indianapolis where readings are between -19 and -22. CMH is around -18. We would be approaching top 3 coldest if verified. It's extremely rare to have more than one major cold outbreak during the same winter here. I'm going to define major as any 2 consecutive lows below -5, since that seems to be fairly difficult to do around here. Getting just one is hard enough. Winters that saw 2 or more outbreaks with consecutive lows below -5 and the dates of those outbreaks.**Indicates that the outbreaks were within the same month. ***Indicates more than 2. ****Indicates one-time only or special conditions. 1883-1884** January 5th-7th: -16, -20, -5 January 25th-26th: -15, -6 1884-1885** February 10th-11th: -10, -11 February 20th-22nd: -9, -8, -5 1894-1895 January 12th-13th: -8, -7 February 8th-9th: -8, -5 1904-1905** February 2nd-3rd: -6, -6 February 13th-14th: -7, -8 1917-1918**** Only winter with 4. December 9th-11th: -8, -8, -9 January 12th-13th: -13, -6 January: 20th-21st: -10, -6 February 4th-5th: -7, -10 1935-1936 January 22nd-24th: -16, -15, -9 February 18th-19th: -7, -6 1950-1951 December 27th-28th: -14, -10 February 2nd-3rd: -13, -10 1962-1963*** January 23rd-25th: -14, -15, -6 January 28th-29th: -15, -13 February 26th-27th: -10, -11 1976-1977**** Only year to have more than 2 in the same month. January 12th-13th: -8, -14 January 16th-18th: -13, -19, -8 January 28th-29th: -8, -9 1981-1982** January 10th-11th: -11, -6 January 16th-17th: -11, -16 1983-1984 December 24th-26th: -12, -12, -5 January 20th-21st: -7, -16 1984-1985 January 19th-21st: -5, -19, -16 February 3rd-4th: -10, -9 1989-1990****One of 2 winters to feature 4 consecutive lows below -5. December 16th-18th: -7, -12, -7 December 21st-24th: -10, -17, -14, -11 1993-1994****2nd of 2 winters to feature 4 consecutive lows below -5. January 15th-16th: -6, -8 January 18th-21st: -17, -22, -9, -15 That's it. Just 14 since 1878, or about 1 per decade. That average, however, is skewed by the 1980s that had 4. The 1920s, 1940s, 1950s and 2000s had 0. Several others came close, but most of those just had one major and then a smaller one that didn't meet the criteria. These winters are not necessarily the coldest on record, although many of them are in the top 25. For a reminder, here's what 2013-2014 has so far: January 6th-7th: -7, -7 Here's what the 12z GFS showed coming: January 27th-31st :-15, -15, -15, -8, -9 That would be the first time to have 5 consecutive days with lows below -5 if verified. I'm not sure what the Euro has for those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Chillicothe in the sweet spot according to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 ILN changed forecast, 2-4 now around here. No discussion out yet so don't know their reasoning. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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