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Let's talk winter!


Steve

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on a bright note, we lost virtually no snow cover today, in fact a lot of the side streets are still snow covered.

Yeah, I had to replace my auger belt in my snowblower this morning and finally did my driveway and sidewalks. The areas that were too compacted on my driveway for the snowblower to get are still there tonight.

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One of the top CIPS analogs is the christmas 2004 storm. Still hope.... But not much at this point.

 

a man can dream...that one got surprise-bullied southeast by the front.   When the storm began to ride up it brought in warm air and we went over to ice.   I believe that track was up thru extreme western Pa/eastern OH.

 

by the way, as of 18z we have one model still showing a snowstorm for central Ohio....

 

nogaps :axe:

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a man can dream...that one got surprise-bullied southeast by the front.   When the storm began to ride up it brought in warm air and we went over to ice.   I believe that track was up thru extreme western Pa/eastern OH.

 

by the way, as of 18z we have one model still showing a snowstorm for central Ohio....

 

nogaps :axe:

 

Nogaps did well with the last storm. :)

 

But, it's the Nogaps. I hope this thing breaks colder for you guys...and you get something before the arctic visits.

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a man can dream...that one got surprise-bullied southeast by the front.   When the storm began to ride up it brought in warm air and we went over to ice.   I believe that track was up thru extreme western Pa/eastern OH.

 

by the way, as of 18z we have one model still showing a snowstorm for central Ohio....

 

nogaps :axe:

 

Well, it's not often the PV pays a visit to the lakes. Also, how often have we heard this winter its a fast/progressive flow so storms don't have an opportunity to amplify. Grasping any straw I can find but there is still home for Ohioans... except probably for the SE third. Wouldn't be surprised if the storms rides north through Meadville PA.

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Well, it's not often the PV pays a visit to the lakes. Also, how often have we heard this winter its a fast/progressive flow so storms don't have an opportunity to amplify. Grasping any straw I can find but there is still home for Ohioans... except probably for the SE third. Wouldn't be surprised if the storms rides north through Meadville PA.

 

honestly I bet this thing goes even further northwest.  I was looping the latest HRRR and the last couple of frames of the composite radar look like it's about ready to fly right up thru Indiana.   Problem is once the storm forms in the southern plains and starts to ride the track northeast the front stops eastward progress.  Right now it looks like this thing is coming together faster than the front has time to move east.

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Grasping, but temps have dropped a bit faster this evening than expected.  Already at the forecast lows.  6 degree drop in just the last hour.

Yeah..down to 25 here in Newark..has dropped about 9 degrees since our high today!!

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It's totally weenie stuff to even be mentioning it, especially if you look southwest.  Dayton dropped only 1 degree and Cincinnati rose 3, so this is probably it.

 

Meanwhile it's 34 in Cleveland. Probably some radiational cooling down that way right now:

 

ruc00hr_sfc_temp.gif

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NAM moves slightly SE... but just buries all of Indiana and almost nothing in Ohio.  They'll have no right to complain the rest of the winter.

 

yea I just checked...unreal, looks like not even quite .25 qpf here.....all rain and a dusting at best of snow.   That rain falls with temps in upper 30's which means we may actually see the worst case scenario unfold:  wiping out our snow just in time for brutal cold.     Depending on what the gfs does, ILN may be able to take care of everything with a windchill warning and call it a day.

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This is where being a tv met must really suck.  You have the general public that now has the notion that there's a snowstorm coming, (let's face it most only hear it once on the news and that's it), and come tomorrow night they'll be wondering wheres 'that big snowstorm we we're suppose to get??  these weathermen suck."  

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I think the Ohio offices really jumped the gun too early with the winter storm warnings. They really could have waited and issued them (if needed) with the overnight and morning updates.

 

Not taking the NAM as gospel, but the state is virtually snowfall free except the far NW corner:

 

post-599-0-45576600-1388889494_thumb.gif

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This is where being a tv met must really suck.  You have the general public that now has the notion that there's a snowstorm coming, (let's face it most only hear it once on the news and that's it), and come tomorrow night they'll be wondering wheres 'that big snowstorm we we're suppose to get??  these weathermen suck."   

 

 

Yep. It's very hard for TV mets to produce a forecast wildly different from the NWS when the TV constantly has those weather warning scrolls cycling along the bottom of the screen.

 

These have to be saved for comparison to reality:

 

post-599-0-41242000-1388890037_thumb.png

 

post-599-0-94925700-1388890056_thumb.png

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I think the Ohio offices really jumped the gun too early with the winter storm warnings. They really could have waited and issued them (if needed) with the overnight and morning updates.

 

Not taking the NAM as gospel, but the state is virtually snowfall free except the far NW corner:

 

attachicon.gifUSA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_048.gif

Have to remember they threw out thee NAM and went with the colder solutions. Got no problem how they issued everything.

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