Steve Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Chris Bradely is beatimng the snow drums!!! Thinks WSW will be extended SE and east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Franklin is in panic mode. Walmart was completely out of .... shopping carts. Fortunately all I needed was diapers. So often we bust here, we are really in the bullseye this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not very excited for Columbus at this time. I'm going with 2-6 for now to cover what I think is the most likely range of possibilities. Gonna shadow at ILN tmrw so should I pull for a WSW for Franklin co? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Nice weenie map for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not very excited for Columbus at this time. I'm going with 2-6 for now to cover what I think is the most likely range of possibilities. Gonna shadow at ILN tmrw so should I pull for a WSW for Franklin co? you better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Not looking so good with the NAM. Makes sense we would see a stronger storm given the degree of cold air coming in. And obviously a strong storm will be bad for us. Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 How ever the 00z GFS never brings the low into Ohio....far Eastern/Northeaster KY...then up through Western WV into Penn. 850's never get much...if any north of the river. I'll take the GFS and smile going to bed! And pray the Euro doesn't kick the sandman in the groin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like it's rain to snow here in CMH.... The question mark is how fast does the changeover occur. I've tracked dozens of storms here over the last 20+ years and more often than not, In these extreme setups, the error is the changeover will occur quicker than models show....hopefully that's the situation tomorrow. Someone had a vid in the Pittsburgh forum of a meteorologist explaining that even though he is usually leery of projected backend snows, this is a great set up for that because the flow behind the front at 500 is straight south to north which prevents quick drying.....he thinks places as far east as Pitt could see 3-6 post frontal. We're use to being on the line here in CMH and I have little confidence in what happens tomorrow other than it will start raining at some point and be snowing hard at some point. I also feel good that we'll have a fresh snow cover (depth TBD) to 'welcome' in that miserable airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 if 12z nam holds the true trend... ...please disregard my previous post in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It may very well, however the NAM has a different solution on each run which should be sending up red flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It may very well, however the NAM has a different solution on each run which should be sending up red flags. what we have on our side: -euro ticked southeast at 00z and was very much in line with last nights gfs. -euro ens matched euro OP -gfs is still mostly snow (as of 6z) what we have going against us: -nam -uk -gem -and the gfs did tick nw at 6z from the 00z things ain't looking good. At this point we have to hope the euro and the gfs hold and pull the coupe and if that happens we still have mix issues. It is really strange to see the gfs and euro line up. Usually they are on opposite teams and usually the euro lines up with the gem and/or the uk by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 rgem just sealed the deal 998 over Findlay. oh well.... I suspect all wsw will be dropped, possibly in all of ILN zones except the most western. Maybe we can scrape out a wwa tomorrow afternoon for flash freezing and blowing and drifting 1 inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 rgem just sealed the deal 998 over Findlay. oh well.... I suspect all wsw will be dropped, possibly in all of ILN zones except the most western. Maybe we can scrape out a wwa tomorrow afternoon for flash freezing and blowing and drifting 1 inch of snow. We shall see. Not ready to punt yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 We shall see. Not ready to punt yet. all we have is the euro, but it's now an old run and it hasn't been the king of late. The gfs is a p*ssy, it will almost assuredly start caving at 12z. But I admire your optimism. I think chance of a snow cover via postfrontal snow is now even down to less than 50%. Just a horrible turn of events for us snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 all we have is the euro, but it's now an old run and it hasn't been the king of late. The gfs is a p*ssy, it will almost assuredly start caving at 12z. But I admire your optimism. I think chance of a snow cover via postfrontal snow is now even down to less than 50%. Just a horrible turn of events for us snow lovers. The last thing I expected to see was a WSW for 4"-8", especially for counties east of Columbus. 12z GFS more or less stayed the same. It's so weird. It and the Euro have easily been the most consistent models vs. the others and are clearly the best outcomes for us. And a few mets did say in the other thread that the NAM has been awful so far this winter (but as bad as the Euro?), so I really don't know. I figured by now we'd have a consensus, but we don't. The NAM and others keep going further and further NW with this, but there is only so far NW it can really go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 well another fly in the ointment......nw crowd just lost the ukie which now has a track like last nights euro unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 For us in Dayton...and me in Bellbrook...the GFS at noon did come a bit further Northwest...but the 850's still never get Northwest of I-71...and there is plenty of moisture left and North winds for many hours after the low moves off to the East. Still looks like the lp center stays in North East Kentucky. I am rooting big time for the front to get as far South as possible tonight before stalling and awaiting the demon wave...fickle as it may be! If the Euro holds serve at 1:30 PM...a cast my lot with consistency. The Northwest models have been anything but! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 well another fly in the ointment......nw crowd just lost the ukie which now has a track like last nights euro unreal It would be hilarious to see all the far NW models cave SE. The weenie implosion for some would be historic. Not that I think that will happen, but I don't think we're quite fully out of the game yet. I'm just glad I am going to work. Following the models today is going to be frustrating, so hopefully when I get back some consensus will have been reached so we can stop worrying about it either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 For us in Dayton...and me in Bellbrook...the GFS at noon did come a bit further Northwest...but the 850's still never get Northwest of I-71...and there is plenty of moisture left and North winds for many hours after the low moves off to the East. Still looks like the lp center stays in North East Kentucky. I am rooting big time for the front to get as far South as possible tonight before stalling and awaiting the demon wave...fickle as it may be! If the Euro holds serve at 1:30 PM...a cast my lot with consistency. The Northwest models have been anything but! The track looks the same to me. Maybe very slight adjustments, but it's essentially the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 well another fly in the ointment......nw crowd just lost the ukie which now has a track like last nights euro unreal Going to be a close call for you guys in central OH I think. 12z GFS looks good though. I've read a lot of NWS offices not really putting much weight in the NAM due to its tendencies to over amplify a wave developing along a front and just its track record thus far. The further SE track gives us in SWPA a better shot at post frontal snows. Hoping we can have 2-3 inches on the ground for the arctive outbreak so we can challenge some records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 BTW, just how far south do we need the arctic front to be to give us decent snow? Front Watch 2014! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 BTW, just how far south do we need the arctic front to be to give us decent snow? Front Watch 2014! far enough past us to allow for a movement back nw as the low comes up. Know idea how far that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 far enough past us to allow for a movement back nw as the low comes up. Know idea how far that is. You mean SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 You mean SE? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Wow. ..30 here in Newark already. .. that can't be good! !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 dammit, I'm suppose to be helping put away xmas decorations and this **** keeps pulling me back...... latest inconsistency: 12z nogaps is a bit east,of 6z enough to put cmh in all snow or mostly snow. It's also been fairly consistent with track like the gfs this is insanity in the modeling world considering we are 36 hours out. Starting to think the euro was right all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Wow. ..30 here in Newark already. .. that can't be good! !! Most areas should hit at least the mid-30s, so we'll likely lose at least some of the snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 dammit, I'm suppose to be helping put away xmas decorations and this **** keeps pulling me back...... latest inconsistency: 12z nogaps is a bit east,of 6z enough to put cmh in all snow or mostly snow. It's also been fairly consistent with track like the gfs this is insanity in the modeling world considering we are 36 hours out. Starting to think the euro was right all along I'm not ready to call anything for sure, but aside from the NAM/RGEM, the trends have been good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Canadian still far NW... maybe the farthest north yet. Rain for Indy and approaching Lafayette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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