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Let's talk winter!

Steve

By Steve,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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pondo1000

pondo1000

Posted
Posted

Accumulating snowfall before November 15th has occurred in Columbus in 48 of the past 135 years, or about 1 in ever 2.8 years.  So it's not really a rarity.  However, the area has not seen accumulating snow before November 15th since 2000, the longest stretch in recorded history, so 2013 looks to break that record. 

 

Also, the amount of snow that falls before November 15th, and the early timing itself, seems to have some kind of correlation to winter.

 

Here are the percentages of the number of winters with below normal temperatures based on the amount of snow before November 15th.

Greater than 3.1": 57.5%

0.5"-0.9": 55.6%

1"-2": 46.2%

Less than 0.5": 37.5%

2.1"-3": 33.3%

 

And the percentage of winters with above normal temperatures based on the amount of snow before November 15th.

Less than 0.5": 43.8%

2.1"-3": 33.3%

1"-2": 30.8%

0.5"-0.9": 22.2%

3.1" or Greater: 14.3%

 

So the worst results for temperature seem to be between Less than 0.5" and 2.1"-3" for whatever reason.  The best is clearly 3.1" or Greater.  Tonight's snowfall is forecast to be around 1", which falls somewhere in the middle.  The good news on temperatures is that the only group of winters that had an average mean above normal was the group that featured less than 0.5" of snow.  Of course, individual winters within any group could be above normal. 

 

As far as seasonal snowfall results go... they're less encouraging.

 

% of winters with above normal snowfall by snow amount before November 15th.

3.1" or Greater: 85.7%

2.1"-3": 66.6%

1"-2": 61.5%

0.5"-0.9": 33.3%

Less than 0.5": 18.8%

 

% of winters with below normal snowfall by snow amount before November 15th.

Less than 0.5": 81.3%

0.5"-0.9": 66.6%

1"-2": 38.5%

2.1"-3": 33.3%

3.1" or Greater: 14.3%

 

So unlike temps, the more snow that falls, the more likely the winter is a good snowfall season.  The predicted 1" leans 2013-2014 towards being snowier than normal, but anything less than that drops those chances significantly.

So what was the official snow amount at CMH?
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pondo1000

pondo1000

Posted
Posted

just checked,

looks like 0.5" * ....bastards are always short changing us.   I know I had at least an inch....it takes at least that much to totally cover the grass which it did.   (see above pic) 

 

*actually it was 0.3"

Agreed Buck! We had at least an inch to an inch & a half at my house. Waking up this morning I was quite surprised. So that .3 doesnt bode well when looking at JB's chart above. All well.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Agreed Buck! We had at least an inch to an inch & a half at my house. Waking up this morning I was quite surprised. So that .3 doesnt bode well when looking at JB's chart above. All well.

 

yep, 81% chance of having below normal snowfall based on that chart.... :yikes:.   Although it seems like we've had some pretty warm and dry Novembers over the last 10 years, in spite of some pretty good winters....maybe things are trending differently of late.

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

just checked,

looks like 0.5" * ....bastards are always short changing us.   I know I had at least an inch....it takes at least that much to totally cover the grass which it did.   (see above pic) 

 

*actually it was 0.3"

 

It was 1.2".  0.3" on Monday night, 0.9" Tuesday morning.  That would put us with a 46.2% chance of a colder than normal winter and a 61.5% chance of a snowier than normal winter. 

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

Another way to look at things is October-November temperatures.  We just had a warm October at +1.5 degrees.  Unfortunately, this is the worst start, as warm Octobers are generally followed by warm winters, though not always.

 

The average winter mean following the 45 years that had above normal Octobers is 32.1 degrees, or about 0.8 above normal.

 

The November result changes the averages a bit.

 

A warm October/cold November leaves the following winter mean at 30.7, or -0.6 degrees below normal.

A warm October/normal November leaves the following winter mean at 33.0, or +1.7 above normal.

A warm October/warm November leaves the following winter mean at 32.9, or +1.6 above normal.

 

So it's much much better to have a cold November now, which is going to be tough given the forecast the next few weeks. 

 

In relation to the early snowfall, only 15 of the 45 years with a warm October had early snowfall.  The average winter mean for those years was 32.4, or +1.1 above normal. 

 

Factoring in the amount of early snow above 1", that only occurred  in 4 years.

 

So the combination of a warm October and early snow above 1" leaves a following winter mean of 29.3, or -2 degrees.  It's not a huge sample, though.  2 of those years were normal, 1 was above a few degrees and one was significantly below normal, so it skews the average.

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snowlover2

snowlover2

Posted
Posted

Folks in the extreme eastern portions of this subforum might want to wake up, turn on the lights, and put on a pot of coffee.   Just say'n.

ILN talking about it a little bit.

 

 

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH...BUT

WITH ITS NRN EDGE OF PCPN AFFECTING SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE GFS

HAS BECOME THE OUTLIER WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT KEEPS THE PCPN SHUNTED

SOUTH OF THE REGION. IT DOES NOT PHASE A NRN STREAM S/W THAT IS

DRIVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM.

MEANWHILE THE THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC AND THE NAM...AT LEAST AS FAR OUT AS

IT GOES...ARE SHOWING MORE PHASING OF THE SYSTEMS. THEY TAKE THE

CENTER OF THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...BUT PRODUCE PCPN NW

OF THE LOW TRACK UP ACROSS THE FA. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS

THE REGION FOR TUE AFTN INTO TUE NIGHT AND LINGERED SOME PCPN IN THE

E UNTIL WED. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER MIGHT HAVE TO INCREASE POPS

SOME MORE AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

SINCE THE REGION IS ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS ON THE

COLD SIDE. THAT MEANS THICKNESSES ARE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW ON TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY AFTN LOCATIONS IN THE SRN SCIOTO VALLEY AND NE KY MAY SEE

SOME RAIN MIX IN AS THICKNESSES WARM.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST

COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW ON

WEDNESDAY.

WENT WITH PRIMARILY THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION

THURSDAY AND WILL HOLD ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL

TYPICALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THE SRN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOWER

40S POSSIBLY ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID

20S.

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Gilbertfly

Gilbertfly

Posted
Posted

Considering the sampling mess the models made of it(aka "supression") in the 120+ range it is not  very surprising everybody is sleepy. Maybe this will be the bullseye system for Columbus this winter(will be back this coming week.....). 

sampling assistance on it's way possibly...

 

 

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

0145 PM EST SAT 23 NOVEMBER 2013

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

         VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z NOVEMBER 2013

         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-175 CORRECTION FOR FORMAT

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:  NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:  NEGATIVE.

NOTE:  ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS

    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:  POSSIBLE

       A66/ DROP 7 (25.0N 93.9W)/ 26/0000Z.

 

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure if we're aloud to post WxBell Euro maps or Allan's maps so I won't right now, but the 0z Euro/Canadian are both rather close and look a lot like the 12z Euro posted above for OH Tuesday night-Wednesday night. The GEFS mean gets a quarter of an inch of liquid well NW of Columbus and several members are much more amped/farther west than the op. The trends this evening (except for the GFS being the GFS) are all good for snow in Ohio this week.

 

EDIT: I suppose I can post the text for the 0z Euro for CMH here:
 

TUE 06Z 26-NOV  -1.1    -4.5    1025      81      98    0.08     559     540    TUE 12Z 26-NOV  -0.8    -4.2    1023      77      96    0.01     558     540    TUE 18Z 26-NOV   0.1    -1.6    1018      80      97    0.03     556     542    WED 00Z 27-NOV  -0.9    -1.4    1013      95      98    0.18     554     543    WED 06Z 27-NOV  -1.2    -4.1    1010      90      98    0.19     548     541    WED 12Z 27-NOV  -1.7    -7.7    1009      88      41    0.04     541     534    WED 18Z 27-NOV  -2.4    -8.6    1009      70      37    0.01     535     527    THU 00Z 28-NOV  -4.1   -11.5    1013      69      59    0.01     530     520    THU 06Z 28-NOV  -6.5   -12.2    1017      68      99    0.01     530     517
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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Does not look like this storm will be a big deal here..Maybe 2 inches on the top end unless we get a west shift of at least 50 to 100 miles.. :santa:

 

2" + event in November in central OH is a big deal to me.   November snows are rare.   This has been one of the most wintry Novembers I can recall in a very long time.   As I type this, it's snowing out, the ground is white, more bands coming in, and it's the eve of our first snow 'event' of the season.   A white thanksgiving, is good bet.   Not bad for November, and I have to say, it's a pretty big deal. ;)

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Ganahl didn't seem too excited about this at 6pm - very odd considering the rarity of accumulating snowfall of any size in central Ohio in Nov. I would be happy with 2" of snow, of course hoping for more. :popcorn:

I saw that too...meh, he's keeping it real....2-4" is what he said, I think that's probably a good bet.

 

Btw, I hadn't seen him in awhile...he looks rather large...  Holy sh*T :o

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vespasian70

vespasian70

Posted
Posted

I saw that too...meh, he's keeping it real....2-4" is what he said, I think that's probably a good bet.

 

Btw, I hadn't seen him in awhile...he looks rather large...  Holy sh*T :o

LOL. I haven't watched him since last winter. The Jym Ganahl I grew up with was thinner and more excited about snow.

 

I'm thinking 3" is a good bet for Newark, 4" or more in Zanesville. Columbus does look good for a solid 2" on the eastside, an inch towards Dublin.

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