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Let's talk winter!


Steve

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We Southwest Ohioans have seen how this goes before. I did read on the other thread...the Euro ensembles were further Southeast than the operational. Also you can't just draw a straight line from Arkansas to Central Lake Ontario and say that is the track...it could well start out and bend more Eastward before turning more North with its track...especially if the phase is a bit later...if it happens. But as I said...we have seen this picture many times over the years. All being said...I rather be in Muncie right now.

 

True, it won't take a straight line track.  It all depends on when it starts heading north, and more importantly, how far east it gets before it does so.  It's a lot harder to pump in warm air from a system moving north/northeast that is directly south/southeast of us than if it was moving north/northeast from the southwest. 

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I swear if I'm gonna be looking at a radar picture like this all day Sunday....I'm getting drunk.  Whose in? 

I don't drink and I am in..lol...question..the blizzard of 78 I remember a very rainy night followed by a quick changover after the storm or front moved just to our east...gotta ask wit this pending artic outbreak if there are any similarities? Because that is still my #1 storm..

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I swear if I'm gonna be looking at a radar picture like this all day Sunday....I'm getting drunk.  Whose in? 

I don't drink and I am in..lol...question..the blizzard of 78 I remember a very rainy night followed by a quick changover after the storm or front moved just to our east...gotta ask wit this pending artic outbreak if there are any similarities? Because that is still my #1 storm..

 

that was a bomb, which is why the less than ideal track still gave us such a rapid changeover.   To a lesser extent, I've seen that before a few times here.   Like I said though, it usually takes a pretty strong wound up low heading right over us for it to bring a significant changeover.     This one hasn't had that look yet, until it gets well northeast of us.

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Well...I hope Chris Bradley at least gets this one right..he is calling for 6+ for the sunday storm.. he used the words Heavy Snow!!...his track record this year is not good..so we shall see!!! He usually hugs one model and runs with it!!

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Looks like one more final round of moderate snow moving in soon and that should just about do it outside of showers/flurries.  Had about 5" here.  Columbus reporting 3.3"... with only 0.2" between 1pm and 5pm.  Seems difficult to believe, especially when they were reporting snow and half-mile visibilities for at least a few hours during that time.  Oh well, at least that officially puts us to almost 21" for the season so far, so hard to complain.  Temp is dropping like a rock too, at least 5 degrees in the last hour or so.

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He has had some heart issues. Supposedly doing better & may be back on air soon. He definitely has let himself go weight wise recently.

He was doing ok..lost a bunch of weight to fit in his Army uniform...since then its been downhill!!

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I am not the best at reading the models...but it seems the new mid-day GFS follows suite with the 6Z and keeps the storm further Southeast. The 850 line never seems to get North of I-71...and then quickly moves Southeast as the day goes on. Plenty of QPF....seems the mid-days look to quash the rain for Southwest Ohioans...at least Northwest of I-71. Let's hope the Doctor has better news too! Minus 3 for me this AM a mile from HighTechEE.

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I am not the best at reading the models...but it seems the new mid-day GFS follows suite with the 6Z and keeps the storm further Southeast. The 850 line never seems to get North of I-71...and then quickly moves Southeast as the day goes on. Plenty of QPF....seems the mid-days look to quash the rain for Southwest Ohioans...at least Northwest of I-71. Let's hope the Doctor has better news too! Minus 3 for me this AM a mile from HighTechEE.

 

You're right, verbatim the gfs is all or mostly all snow for central OH...but it's close, as is the NAM.     Not sure but I think if you put all the 12z models in a blender and pour out the contents you end up with relatively little change from previous runs.   But keeping an unbiased opinion, I'd lean towards disappointing overall for those of us who need the allusive se bump.   Seems like there was a very minor, but important trend to stronger and slower.   (not counting the ukie which is an outlier).  

 

I have a feeling the euro will hold serve with a track through CMH, once again leaving us scratching our heads and wondering what's going to happen.   Second most likely scenario is it really cranks it and takes it west of us.  Third, and least likely, would be what we all want, a shift se.

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I have found over the years that pessimism is rewarded far more than cockeyed optimism. Not sure who pointed it out...but my hope is that climo and the power of the cold and the unusual south extent of the polar vortex will keep the WTOD and northwest movement from happening...and brings us a nice Sunday surprise!

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So now that the mid day models have all run...what is the Ohio verdict? Obviously a Southwest to Northeast dividing line...what is the consensus of where the rubber meets the rain...versus snow?

I-71 Cincy to CMH....or Dayton to Cleveland...or a hybrid?

 

Dayton may do really well...cincy might be on the line and Columbus needs a prayer.  I suspect ILN will issue watches for their most extreme NW and western counties....   possibly Delaware and Madison but I'm not even sure about that.

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Dayton may do really well...cincy might be on the line and Columbus needs a prayer.  I suspect ILN will issue watches for their most extreme NW and western counties....   possibly Delaware and Madison but I'm not even sure about that.

I'm guessing WSW for areas along and NW of I-71. Of course if they go with the GFS, it could be most of the cwa.

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Dayton may do really well...cincy might be on the line and Columbus needs a prayer.  I suspect ILN will issue watches for their most extreme NW and western counties....   possibly Delaware and Madison but I'm not even sure about that.

I dunno, GFS is still stubbornly kicking out 4-6" in CMH. I'm more optimistic than I was last night. Last night seemed like the beginning of a lights out trend west. If anything, we saw a trend east, or at least a hair colder.

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Dayton may do really well...cincy might be on the line and Columbus needs a prayer.  I suspect ILN will issue watches for their most extreme NW and western counties....   possibly Delaware and Madison but I'm not even sure about that.

 

Yeah, I'd say Dayton is in the watch, and all of the northern Miami Valley counties.  Cincinnati and Columbus I'm not sure.  We might go into the watch just because it's so close and there is still a degree of uncertainty.  I'm glad the Euro held and didn't move any further northwest.  And I'm glad to be more in the GFS/Euro camp right now than the Ukie/NAM.

 

I'm also glad that we've had some storms this season go further south than predicted.  The December 5th storm was one of them, as was the clipper the other day.  I don't remember a storm so far that ended up further NW, especially not when we have a potentially record-breaking arctic high moving down.  So a bit of optimism from me... hopefully not the last of it.

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Even if we get a period of rain...it will be near freezing...and the ground is solidly frozen. When the change comes...if we have to play that game (I live in Bellbrook...10 miles Southeast of Dayton)it will come quickly...its not going to be like we have to fall from the 40's to freezing. I am confident the cold will quickly do its work on any WTOD. I don't believe anyone in Dayton or Columbus will lose much of their snow cover...no matter what happens. Some one in another thread said it best...its how far the cold front gets before stalling out that will be critical for Ohioans.

I am more worried about Saturday's 30 mile an hour winds from the South...pre-front..with full sun and what it does with temps at or above freezing to the snow pack. Its low moisture...and those go quickly.

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Winter Storm Watch basically north of I-71 from Cincinnati to Delaware.  Nothing for Columbus.  ILN is calling for highs in the mid-30s with snow and rain on Sunday with snow Sunday night.  They also lowered Monday night lows to -15 to -20, easily the coldest I've ever seen forecast outside of 1994.

 

They also have the Thursday storm as a sloppy mess. 

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Winter Storm Watch basically north of I-71 from Cincinnati to Delaware.  Nothing for Columbus.  ILN is calling for highs in the mid-30s with snow and rain on Sunday with snow Sunday night.  They also lowered Monday night lows to -15 to -20, easily the coldest I've ever seen forecast outside of 1994.

 

They also have the Thursday storm as a sloppy mess. 

Really?? Again...why are we always riding that line?? One county..just one..just need about a 50 mile shift se..not to much to ask..i still think we get decent snow!!

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