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Let's talk winter!

Steve

By Steve,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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buckeye

buckeye

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The streak was bound to end soon. Too bad it has to go out like this - and just before Christmas too.

 

and what a streak.   It's been a very very long time since I recall such consistent cold and snow before xmas.    I'll wait to update snow totals tomorrow...just in case we get measurable today.  After that it looks to hold for sometime.

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Steve

Steve

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I find it ironic that we have had snow on the ground since just about Thanksgiving...and now with Christmas a week away the rain comes!! And the fact that rain can be forecasted 10 days out and hold serve...very seldom does it switch to a snow scenario!!

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

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At least it looks cold for Christmas, with a chance of a few light snows before and around then, so not a total loss.  We had a white Thanksgiving, a much more rare event than a white Christmas, but we still may have a bit of snow on the ground then too.  Will have to wait and see.

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wxdudemike

wxdudemike

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At least it looks cold for Christmas, with a chance of a few light snows before and around then, so not a total loss.  We had a white Thanksgiving, a much more rare event than a white Christmas, but we still may have a bit of snow on the ground then too.  Will have to wait and see.

Yeah even a few snow showers falling on Christmas would be cool.

Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk

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vespasian70

vespasian70

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jesus, 00z gfs has just over 5" of rain for cmh total for late week.   Go big or go home.   Probably overdone, hopefully overdone especially with a frozen ground.

I'd rather deal with plain rain than zr. Someone is going to get clobbered with it. (The one time I'm not rooting for a south trend.)

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buckeye

buckeye

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I'd rather deal with plain rain than zr. Someone is going to get clobbered with it. (The one time I'm not rooting for a south trend.)

 

not a 100% sold on someone in the subforum receiving a crippling icestorm out of this.....further northeast? yea.   Unless the cold high strengthens in future runs.  Otherwise mixy, sleety, VERY narrow transition to snow.   Tough to get real good ice accretion in heavy rains with surface temps barely below freezing.  (latent heat release?)  I've seen that here before many times.  31 or 32 degrees pouring rain but little in the way of accretion.  

Just a gut call....of course come Monday we'll be reading about Michigan's worst icestorm in history....oops.

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Jonger

Jonger

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like this...anyone southeast of that deform band across n. ohio is gonna TORCH

That's a real shame for many of us, that's rare moisture for the Midwest... Uninterrupted-high-precip rates on the NW flank..... very rare to see that on this side of the Apps.

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Chinook

Chinook

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What would that mean for us in terms of practical weather?

There could be wind gusts. The time frame I am looking at is 06z on Sunday, (1AM Eastern time) Normally the nighttime isn't gusty, but you could get some sneaky gusts that aren't expected in the Ohio Valley. Actually the 12z NAM has a huge area of 850mb winds over 70 knots at 06z Sunday.

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wxdudemike

wxdudemike

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The NAM / and to a greater extent / the GFS are picking up on some light QPF as the intense upper level trough moves overhead Monday and Monday night. The GFS actually spits out a solid half inch over much of Ohio (just north of Cincinnati) by Tuesday. Worth keeping an eye on....Not enough for a technical white Christmas but maybe a dusting on the ground?

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Steve

Steve

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The NAM / and to a greater extent / the GFS are picking up on some light QPF as the intense upper level trough moves overhead Monday and Monday night. The GFS actually spits out a solid half inch over much of Ohio (just north of Cincinnati) by Tuesday. Worth keeping an eye on....Not enough for a technical white Christmas but maybe a dusting on the ground?

At this point..would take a half inch!! :underthewx:

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

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So there is some concern that the models are showing a rather cold, but very boring pattern coming up.  Per climo, this is unlikely.

 

There have been 69 2-week periods in Columbus that featured an average temperature of less than 20 degrees.  The average snowfall for these is 7.9", or about a normal amount for the month of February.  Of the 69 weeks, 50 of them had snowfall of 5" or greater.  This may not seem like a lot, but it would be above normal in any winter 2-week period.  17 weeks featured greater than 10".  Out of the top 10 coldest 2-week periods in history, the average snowfall was 9.4", with 4 featuring greater than 10". 

 

BTW, the coldest 2-week period ever was December 13th-26th, 1989.  It had an average temp of just 8 degrees.  Runner up is January 7th-20th, 1893 at 8.1 degrees.  The coldest period in 1976-77, Ohio's coldest winter and coming in 3rd, was January 16th-29th, 1977 at 9.1 degrees.

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wxdudemike

wxdudemike

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So there is some concern that the models are showing a rather cold, but very boring pattern coming up.  Per climo, this is unlikely.

 

There have been 69 2-week periods in Columbus that featured an average temperature of less than 20 degrees.  The average snowfall for these is 7.9", or about a normal amount for the month of February.  Of the 69 weeks, 50 of them had snowfall of 5" or greater.  This may not seem like a lot, but it would be above normal in any winter 2-week period.  17 weeks featured greater than 10".  Out of the top 10 coldest 2-week periods in history, the average snowfall was 9.4", with 4 featuring greater than 10". 

 

BTW, the coldest 2-week period ever was December 13th-26th, 1989.  It had an average temp of just 8 degrees.  Runner up is January 7th-20th, 1893 at 8.1 degrees.  The coldest period in 1976-77, Ohio's coldest winter and coming in 3rd, was January 16th-29th, 1977 at 9.1 degrees.

 

Thanks for those stats.  I think we could get a nice clipper pattern setting up.  Those never show up very far on the models (hence the boring look right now).  Now exact tracks could determine whether or not we actually see a big hit for Columbus, but I agree that statistically odds favor some more snow in the first two weeks of January based on the upcoming pattern.

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buckeye

buckeye

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So there is some concern that the models are showing a rather cold, but very boring pattern coming up.  Per climo, this is unlikely.

 

There have been 69 2-week periods in Columbus that featured an average temperature of less than 20 degrees.  The average snowfall for these is 7.9", or about a normal amount for the month of February.  Of the 69 weeks, 50 of them had snowfall of 5" or greater.  This may not seem like a lot, but it would be above normal in any winter 2-week period.  17 weeks featured greater than 10".  Out of the top 10 coldest 2-week periods in history, the average snowfall was 9.4", with 4 featuring greater than 10". 

 

BTW, the coldest 2-week period ever was December 13th-26th, 1989.  It had an average temp of just 8 degrees.  Runner up is January 7th-20th, 1893 at 8.1 degrees.  The coldest period in 1976-77, Ohio's coldest winter and coming in 3rd, was January 16th-29th, 1977 at 9.1 degrees.

 

Pretty encouraging stats.   As long as we don't get a December 2000 style avalanche of pennies ....  would like to see at least a quarter thrown in somewhere.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

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So there is some concern that the models are showing a rather cold, but very boring pattern coming up.  Per climo, this is unlikely.

 

There have been 69 2-week periods in Columbus that featured an average temperature of less than 20 degrees.  The average snowfall for these is 7.9", or about a normal amount for the month of February.  Of the 69 weeks, 50 of them had snowfall of 5" or greater.  This may not seem like a lot, but it would be above normal in any winter 2-week period.  17 weeks featured greater than 10".  Out of the top 10 coldest 2-week periods in history, the average snowfall was 9.4", with 4 featuring greater than 10". 

 

BTW, the coldest 2-week period ever was December 13th-26th, 1989.  It had an average temp of just 8 degrees.  Runner up is January 7th-20th, 1893 at 8.1 degrees.  The coldest period in 1976-77, Ohio's coldest winter and coming in 3rd, was January 16th-29th, 1977 at 9.1 degrees.

 

Nice stats. Prolonged cold and snow cover go hand in hand. Anecdotally, I have not experienced any long stretch of much below normal temps without some snow. Ideally, we would get a big dog right before the arctic blast.

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buckeye

buckeye

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Christmas memories....OV subforum style:

 

A year ago to the day...the big discussion in the forum was the December 25-26th storm.  It was forecasted to run up the OV somewhere in KY up to about the river and then transfer.   At this time, (around the 23rd, models were bulls-eyeing Toledo, Indy, Detroit and points sw.    Then right around the 12z runs on xmas eve things started taking an unlikely shift southeast.   By the 00z runs xmas eve night, the NAM was painting nearly a foot of snow across CMH.    I went to midnight mass grinning ear to ear.   Christmas day things started correcting back nw and the nasty NAM started showing the bullying WTOD.  The euro stayed firm, keeping us barely in all snow.   By Christmas late afternoon, blizzard warnings were issued for areas just north of the ohio river in Indiana up thru western OH.  We were riding the southeastern edge of snow, mix, slop.    Turned out to be a decent hit here, unfortunately the first several hours were wasted on sleet

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vespasian70

vespasian70

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lol @ the 0z GFS showing the coldest outbreak ever at the end of its run for Ohio.  I don't think I've ever seen it be that cold.  It would smash right through Columbus' -22 all-time record.

Saw that too. DT has been hyping this Arctic blast for a week or so...looks like it may verify. I just hope we get some decent snow cover before the cold settles in.

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