Steve Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Can anyone tell me why our local mets in Columbus are mostly calling for 2-4 while our WWA is calling for 4-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Can anyone tell me why our local mets in Columbus are mostly calling for 2-4 while our WWA is calling for 4-6? I don't think we will see 6" in central OH - NW OH will be good for that though. 2-4" seems like a good call based on the models and climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif....Pretty good chance of 4 inches of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not bad if you consider it will be added to our current snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=2&day=null..% is pretty good!! Look at 00z for sunday at 6 inches of snow percentage is pretty good!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Radar down to our SW really looking juicy!! Heading straight our way!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not bad if you consider it will be added to our current snow cover. That map doesn't actually match their zone forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 That map doesn't actually match their zone forecast. What really sucks is...it looks like we have a brief warm-up that will melt the snow..just hope we can get one more snow before Christmas!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What really sucks is...it looks like we have a brief warm-up that will melt the snow..just hope we can get one more snow before Christmas!! The warm up looks very brief, from around the 20th-21st and then it's over with some snow leading into Christmas. But this is 2 weeks out, so a lot can change either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The warm up looks very brief, from around the 20th-21st and then it's over with some snow leading into Christmas. But this is 2 weeks out, so a lot can change either way. looking at all the models it's a total crap shoot as to whether we get into rain....about 50/50. The gfs gives us only 3 tenths of an inch of total precip, (1 tenth as frz rain, rest as snow). NAM seems to be the warmest but according to text sounding 850 never gets above -1. NAM also gives us .51 total qpf. I'm wondering if 1-4" might be more realistic at this point....1" if we change over mid morning Saturday, 4" if we don't change over at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 looking at all the models it's a total crap shoot as to whether we get into rain....about 50/50. The gfs gives us only 3 tenths of an inch of total precip, (1 tenth as frz rain, rest as snow). NAM seems to be the warmest but according to text sounding 850 never gets above -1. NAM also gives us .51 total qpf. I'm wondering if 1-4" might be more realistic at this point....1" if we change over mid morning Saturday, 4" if we don't change over at all. The models were a bit too dry for the last event, but way too wet for the one before it. If we can stay snow, I'm still thinking 3" minimum. A mix would definitely cut that down, but 1" is probably too low whether or not we change over at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The models were a bit too dry for the last event, but way too wet for the one before it. If we can stay snow, I'm still thinking 3" minimum. A mix would definitely cut that down, but 1" is probably too low whether or not we change over at some point. looking at some short range mos and trying to make sense of the progression of things, it looks as though we get hit with the first wave of all snow WAA, (this might be the over performing part of the storm since WAA snows can often lead to some surprises. Than it looks like a bit of a lull before the precip from the actual low moves in from the sw....this is the part of the storm that I'm not so sure about. If we can stay snow without mixing, than 4+ seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 looking at some short range mos and trying to make sense of the progression of things, it looks as though we get hit with the first wave of all snow WAA, (this might be the over performing part of the storm since WAA snows can often lead to some surprises. Than it looks like a bit of a lull before the precip from the actual low moves in from the sw....this is the part of the storm that I'm not so sure about. If we can stay snow without mixing, than 4+ seems likely. Remembering similar scenarios, usually the first part that is WAA wipes out the cold for the 2nd round of precip. Then, the hope is that the 2nd round of precip is very light or even just drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Remembering similar scenarios, usually the first part that is WAA wipes out the cold for the 2nd round of precip. Then, the hope is that the 2nd round of precip is very light or even just drizzle. yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think by the time this event comes to a close, we have about 1-2" total snow accumulation. I'm not overly impressed with this setup in terms of favorable temps. I think we see a good amount of melting actually tomorrow during the day with temps rising to the upper 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 18znam came in a bit colder....looks like about the same qpf. Rain/snow line should be a bit southeast of the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Going for the optimistic approach on this one...going 4 inches!! Radar looks good..heading right at us!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 it looks like ILN extended the WWA to include another tier of southeastern counties....that adds a bit of encouragement that they may not be as bullish on the warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 it looks like ILN extended the WWA to include another tier of southeastern counties....that adds a bit of encouragement that they may not be as bullish on the warming. There we go..first step towards optimisim!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 it looks like ILN extended the WWA to include another tier of southeastern counties....that adds a bit of encouragement that they may not be as bullish on the warming. Makes me wonder if storm is moving a bit further south...WWA moved SE...wonder if WSW will be moved also..Just a thought!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Makes me wonder if storm is moving a bit further south...WWA moved SE...wonder if WSW will be moved also..Just a thought!! The storm back on the 6th ended up further south than predicted, so here's hoping it's a seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 18znam came in a bit colder....looks like about the same qpf. Rain/snow line should be a bit southeast of the 12z. Not so sure... http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=nam&time=2013121318&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 ILN has extended the 4"-6" area further south and east. I hope this is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 ILN has extended the 4"-6" area further south and east. I hope this is a trend. Into NW Licking county..loving the trend!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Is it me or has the precipitation field slowed it's northly jaunt,and taken on a more easterly movement?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not to be a wet blanket but the nam just went ugly warm on us. Between that and radar... Not feeling this one guys.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not to be a wet blanket but the nam just went ugly warm on us. Between that and radar... Not feeling this one guys.... Yeah, I haven't been feeling this one. I stand behind my 1-2" call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayton1996 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Ugly warm indeed. 34 degrees here in Centerville/Bellbrook - with an approaching radar return that shows plain rain. From single digit to above freezing that quickly. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayton1996 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Check that. It's 35 degrees. Nothing good ever comes from wind from the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Upon further review....its snowing in Bellbrook...just like the light switch came on. Was worried the radar marginal surface temps would be rain...but it is snow....100 per cent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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