buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 On 1/4/2014 at 4:45 PM, jbcmh81 said: Canadian still far NW... maybe the farthest north yet. Rain for Indy and approaching Lafayette. expected because of the rgem which is basically it's short range version. We are basically boiling down to the ggem/nam vs. uk/gfs/nogaps/ euro 12z will probably tell the tale. I'm also curious to see the gefs....even though the spread should be minimal at this range it might help focus things as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 GEFS has the low between Portsmouth and Circleville at 36 hours with the 850 line on top of i71. Compared to the 12z gfs that might be a tick nw. I'll make my official last do or die call after the euro comes in. Right now I'm liking a track right over us or slightly east. That may help us to changeover quicker and re-establish a modest snowcover, prefrontal passage. ...or it may dry slot the hell out of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 On 1/4/2014 at 5:11 PM, buckeye said: GEFS has the low between Portsmouth and Circleville at 36 hours with the 850 line on top of i71. Compared to the 12z gfs that might be a tick nw. I'll make my official last do or die call after the euro comes in. Right now I'm liking a track right over us or slightly east. That may help us to changeover quicker and re-establish a modest snowcover, prefrontal passage. ...or it may dry slot the hell out of us Yeah, dry slot would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 damn, bad news on the euro....west of 00z takes low to about Springfield at 36 hours. 850s line from just east of cincy to about Sandusky. By 42 hours it's already to Buffalo at 995 and 850s have crashed to -8 at cmh. That might be a good thing for backlash...but not sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 meh, looks like about 1.5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 heaviest snow with very tight cutoff is where I described that 850 line except it barely grabs Dayton. Screws Cincy and even screws Cleveland Looks like euro confirms this will be the heartbreaker we all dreaded....save nw ohio to Sandusky to Dayton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Is there anything worse than going from temps in the single digits, to rain, then back below zero temps with no snow on the ground? This flat out blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 On 1/4/2014 at 6:11 PM, JayPSU said: Is there anything worse than going from temps in the single digits, to rain, then back below zero temps with no snow on the ground? This flat out blows.I cant bliev it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 On 1/4/2014 at 6:11 PM, JayPSU said: Is there anything worse than going from temps in the single digits, to rain, then back below zero temps with no snow on the ground? This flat out blows. yea, at hour 66 we are at about -15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 On 1/4/2014 at 6:11 PM, JayPSU said: Is there anything worse than going from temps in the single digits, to rain, then back below zero temps with no snow on the ground? This flat out blows. you almost have to laugh. It really is an amazing scenario. I mean we've had rain after below zero weather but it usually is warming up. To have rain sandwiched 24 hours between a significant cold snap and a historic cold snap makes my head want to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 According to the euro we go from about 40 degrees to -10 in 18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The pipes in older homes are in trouble with no snow cover and temps of -15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I'm not sure how well a model like the euro would pick up backlash snows but I'd have to believe that we don't escape without at least a couple of inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 On 1/4/2014 at 6:21 PM, JayPSU said: The pipes in older homes are in trouble with no snow cover and temps of -15. exactly, I'm seriously going to put a heater in my crawl space. My desire for snowcover isn't just because I like snow, it's becaue the thought of -15 or -20 with bare ground is frightening. Snow is an amazing insulator for dormant plants, the ground in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 if it's any conciliation, doesn't look like that much of a rain producer....probably a quarter inch or so, its all about the snow with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Buckeye, I feel your pain, Ive been there before. I was wondering if you have the euros temp and windchill maps for the area? Im curious because at 00z it was showing windchills near or over 50 below from Indiana to ohio. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 On 1/4/2014 at 6:31 PM, snowlord81 said: Buckeye, I feel your pain, Ive been there before. I was wondering if you have the euros temp and windchill maps for the area? Im curious because at 00z it was showing windchills near or over 50 below from Indiana to ohio. I good chunk of OH and IN are in that -50 range around 60hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 On 1/4/2014 at 6:24 PM, buckeye said: exactly, I'm seriously going to put a heater in my crawl space. My desire for snowcover isn't just because I like snow, it's becaue the thought of -15 or -20 with bare ground is frightening. Snow is an amazing insulator for dormant plants, the ground in general. Yeah, exactly. Time to pray for the ultimate weenie life boat...backlash snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 looks like euro puts down about 4-5" of snow here for the later week thingy. Whatever, probably just go ahead and congrats Toledo again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Thanks buckeye, I remember March 2008 and the models were so close to a huge snow for us over here and instead I got 24 hours of virga why Louisville, Dayton and you got crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 On 1/4/2014 at 6:38 PM, snowlord81 said: Thanks buckeye, I remember March 2008 and the models were so close to a huge snow for us over here and instead I got 24 hours of virga why Louisville, Dayton and you got crushed. yup, we've all been on both sides of this. We need the sucky misses to enjoy the hits. That being said, models never have the final say....hoping for a minor surprise or two. December '04 was being written off the night before as a sloppy rain/mix here and that front pushed harder than expected and when I woke up it was snowing here and places in Indiana sat high, dry, and frigid. Granted that was an extreme exception, but all I want is a surprise in the backlash dept and I'll be happy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 So do you think this will be a close call for Columbus, mostly rain, or a good snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 On 1/4/2014 at 6:51 PM, Chinook said: So do you think this will be a close call for Columbus, mostly rain, or a good snow event? about 6 hours of light rain, possibly starting as some sleet mix, ending as a rapid, brief change over to heavy windy snow...but only briefly, (like a couple of hours). That brief changeover is really our only hope to lay down something. I expect ILN will drop the wsw for all their counties except their Indiana counties and far western counties. I imagine they'll hoist wwa by tonight or tomorrow morning for all their counties for tomorrow evening and night, mainly due to flash freezing, wind, and light snow accums. That's all I got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Once again it looks like we get the ole screw job!!! We Just can't win. . Go from 5 degrees to 40 with rain. . Then cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Temps have already jumped into the low to mid 30's. The WAA will not be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 ILN goes with a wind chill warning and a winter wx advisory for cmh and surrounding. 2-4" total. I hope they're right on that, we're gonna need as much of a blanket as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Still got warning here. Didn't budge much from before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 On 1/4/2014 at 9:17 PM, snowlover2 said: Still got warning here. Didn't budge much from before. must be hugging the gfs...it's pretty much the last of the eastern solutions. No matter what you guys are in much better shape snow-wise then us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 On 1/4/2014 at 9:15 PM, buckeye said: ILN goes with a wind chill warning and a winter wx advisory for cmh and surrounding. 2-4" total. I hope they're right on that, we're gonna need as much of a blanket as possible.What is ILN smokn? I want some! Have DE County in the WSW as well! Huge bust potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 On 1/4/2014 at 9:24 PM, pondo1000 said: What is ILN smokn? I want some! Have DE County in the WSW as well! Huge bust potential! wow, I didn't see that....I thought Union was the closest. Big bust potential is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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