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Let's talk winter!

Steve

By Steve,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Here's hoping this thread get's so long it has to be locked and re-started by January 1st!    From what little I've skimmed here and elsewhere, the general consensus of the preliminary preliminaries seem to indicate the further west and north you are in this subforum, the better chances for a good winter...(relatively speaking of course).   Have a feeling we're gonna be on the warm wet side of a lot of storms this season....and probably a lot of close calls as well.  

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Steve

Steve

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Not liking the extended outlook for us here..Though we will have highs at or a bit below average,it looks like the first freeze may not happen untill the first week of NOV. which would be close to 2 weeks behind normal!

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pondo1000

pondo1000

Posted
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Not liking the extended outlook for us here..Though we will have highs at or a bit below average,it looks like the first freeze may not happen untill the first week of NOV. which would be close to 2 weeks behind normal!

Agreed, but not sure there is always a correlation to the upcoming winter. If you take last year as example, I believe we had a very early freeze and winter got a late start. Time will tell.

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  • 3 weeks later...
pondo1000

pondo1000

Posted
Posted

October 23rd....7am.

 

First official flakes of snow, car-topper, and light dusting of the season for a lot of Central Ohio.

 

Now let's get back to some 60's and sunshine :)

Very cool to see, especially this early. You're right about 60s. You know we will be getting some warmer temps again at some point. i just hope it will temporary and that Thanksgiving is not 65 again!

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
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Very cool to see, especially this early. You're right about 60s. You know we will be getting some warmer temps again at some point. i just hope it will temporary and that Thanksgiving is not 65 again!

 

Yea it sounds like the preliminary, gathering consensus, (based on long range forecast indices), is for a potentially mild NOV, (at least the first half).   That wouldn't suck as far as I'm concerned.

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

Not liking the extended outlook for us here..Though we will have highs at or a bit below average,it looks like the first freeze may not happen untill the first week of NOV. which would be close to 2 weeks behind normal!

Agreed, but not sure there is always a correlation to the upcoming winter. If you take last year as example, I believe we had a very early freeze and winter got a late start. Time will tell.

People have fun with analogs, I truly don't buy into them.... It could be the best winter in 30 years, or it could be 11-12 redux... You never know.

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
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There have only been 10 Octobers since 1878 in Columbus with measurable snowfall.  In general, this is a pretty decent indicator that, at least at times, the upcoming winter will be harsh. 

 

The average winter mean for the 10 was 29, or 2.1 degrees below normal.  Only one winter of the 10 was more than 1 degree above normal, and that was 2012-2013.  The second warmest was 31.8 during 1910-1911.  

 

The average snowfall for the 10 was 35.4", or about 6.4" above normal.  2 winters had snowfall 5" or more below normal,  1954-55 with 22.3" and 1989-90 with 21.1".  No winter saw less than 21.1", which would be about 9" above what the city got in 2011-2012. 

 

Here are all the winters.

 

Winter Mean *Average is 31.3

1880-1881: 26.1

1906-1907: 31.1

1910-1911: 31.8

1917-1918: 22.8

1925-1926: 30.1

1954-1955: 31.0

1962-1963: 23.0

1989-1990: 31.5

1993-1994: 28.1

2012-2013: 34.2

 

Winter Snowfall *Average around 29"

1880-1881: 62.4"

1906-1907: 24.7"

1910-1911: 38.0"

1917-1918: 44.1"

1925-1926: 30.5"

1954-1955: 22.3"

1962-1963: 32.0"

1989-1990: 21.1"

1993-1994: 37.7"

2012-2013: 41.2"

 

No winter in any of the 10 saw both above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall. 

 

So we'll see If KCMH actually will report a measurable event today.  My guess... Trace. 

 

BTW, the average snowfall for the 2010s, so far, has been 27.4".  If it ended this decade that way, it would be the 7th snowiest of 15 decades since records began.  Way too early to say.  The 2000s were 5th snowiest.

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pondo1000

pondo1000

Posted
Posted

There have only been 10 Octobers since 1878 in Columbus with measurable snowfall.  In general, this is a pretty decent indicator that, at least at times, the upcoming winter will be harsh. 

 

The average winter mean for the 10 was 29, or 2.1 degrees below normal.  Only one winter of the 10 was more than 1 degree above normal, and that was 2012-2013.  The second warmest was 31.8 during 1910-1911.  

 

The average snowfall for the 10 was 35.4", or about 6.4" above normal.  2 winters had snowfall 5" or more below normal,  1954-55 with 22.3" and 1989-90 with 21.1".  No winter saw less than 21.1", which would be about 9" above what the city got in 2011-2012. 

 

Here are all the winters.

 

Winter Mean *Average is 31.3

1880-1881: 26.1

1906-1907: 31.1

1910-1911: 31.8

1917-1918: 22.8

1925-1926: 30.1

1954-1955: 31.0

1962-1963: 23.0

1989-1990: 31.5

1993-1994: 28.1

2012-2013: 34.2

 

Winter Snowfall *Average around 29"

1880-1881: 62.4"

1906-1907: 24.7"

1910-1911: 38.0"

1917-1918: 44.1"

1925-1926: 30.5"

1954-1955: 22.3"

1962-1963: 32.0"

1989-1990: 21.1"

1993-1994: 37.7"

2012-2013: 41.2"

 

No winter in any of the 10 saw both above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall. 

 

So we'll see If KCMH actually will report a measurable event today.  My guess... Trace. 

 

BTW, the average snowfall for the 2010s, so far, has been 27.4".  If it ended this decade that way, it would be the 7th snowiest of 15 decades since records began.  Way too early to say.  The 2000s were 5th snowiest.

Thanks! Good stuff as usual from you. Dumb question, is a Trace considered measurable?

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
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Thanks! Good stuff as usual from you. Dumb question, is a Trace considered measurable?

 

Nope, it's not considered measurable.  If traces were included, I would say a good half of all Octobers would be included.  BTW, today was officially a trace, so back to the drawing board for this winter.

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  • 2 weeks later...
buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Well...most if not all local mets are calling for light snow or snow showers for Wednesday..That would be pretty awespme...bring it on!! :snowing:

 

November snow would be nice, even a dusting.

I'll consider this a successful winter if by February Hoosier has asked you to start a new thread. :)    Likewise, if we're only rounding page 4 by Feb 1st... :axe:

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

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November snow would be nice, even a dusting.

I'll consider this a successful winter if by February Hoosier has asked you to start a new thread. :)    Likewise, if we're only rounding page 4 by Feb 1st... :axe:

 

There's a lot more doom and gloom recently about the upcoming winter than there was earlier in the year, especially in regards to the AO.  I haven't put out a winter outlook myself in a few years, but am working on one now.  Will post it here soon.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

this has to be a FIRST, (my fellow central Ohioans will understand what I mean)

 

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED NEAR THE OHIO AND INDIANA BORDER AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH
SNOW WILL MAINLY ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES...

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vespasian70

vespasian70

Posted
Posted

this has to be a FIRST, (my fellow central Ohioans will understand what I mean)

 

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER

AMOUNTS EXPECTED NEAR THE OHIO AND INDIANA BORDER AND SLIGHTLY

HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH

SNOW WILL MAINLY ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES...

 

LOL! I read that too and did a double take - I thought it was a typo. It would be sweet if we got a couple of inches out of this.

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WestMichigan

WestMichigan

Posted
Posted

this has to be a FIRST, (my fellow central Ohioans will understand what I mean)

 

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER

AMOUNTS EXPECTED NEAR THE OHIO AND INDIANA BORDER AND SLIGHTLY

HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH

SNOW WILL MAINLY ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES...

As vespasian said, are you sure this isn't a typo and they meant West?  I could see east if it was something coming up the Appalachians, but that is not the case.

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

Accumulating snowfall before November 15th has occurred in Columbus in 48 of the past 135 years, or about 1 in ever 2.8 years.  So it's not really a rarity.  However, the area has not seen accumulating snow before November 15th since 2000, the longest stretch in recorded history, so 2013 looks to break that record. 

 

Also, the amount of snow that falls before November 15th, and the early timing itself, seems to have some kind of correlation to winter.

 

Here are the percentages of the number of winters with below normal temperatures based on the amount of snow before November 15th.

Greater than 3.1": 57.5%

0.5"-0.9": 55.6%

1"-2": 46.2%

Less than 0.5": 37.5%

2.1"-3": 33.3%

 

And the percentage of winters with above normal temperatures based on the amount of snow before November 15th.

Less than 0.5": 43.8%

2.1"-3": 33.3%

1"-2": 30.8%

0.5"-0.9": 22.2%

3.1" or Greater: 14.3%

 

So the worst results for temperature seem to be between Less than 0.5" and 2.1"-3" for whatever reason.  The best is clearly 3.1" or Greater.  Tonight's snowfall is forecast to be around 1", which falls somewhere in the middle.  The good news on temperatures is that the only group of winters that had an average mean above normal was the group that featured less than 0.5" of snow.  Of course, individual winters within any group could be above normal. 

 

As far as seasonal snowfall results go... they're less encouraging.

 

% of winters with above normal snowfall by snow amount before November 15th.

3.1" or Greater: 85.7%

2.1"-3": 66.6%

1"-2": 61.5%

0.5"-0.9": 33.3%

Less than 0.5": 18.8%

 

% of winters with below normal snowfall by snow amount before November 15th.

Less than 0.5": 81.3%

0.5"-0.9": 66.6%

1"-2": 38.5%

2.1"-3": 33.3%

3.1" or Greater: 14.3%

 

So unlike temps, the more snow that falls, the more likely the winter is a good snowfall season.  The predicted 1" leans 2013-2014 towards being snowier than normal, but anything less than that drops those chances significantly. 

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oldlogin

oldlogin

Posted
Posted

this has to be a FIRST, (my fellow central Ohioans will understand what I mean)

 

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER

AMOUNTS EXPECTED NEAR THE OHIO AND INDIANA BORDER AND SLIGHTLY

HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH

SNOW WILL MAINLY ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES...

ILN has issued a WWA

post-154-0-88255400-1384206670_thumb.png

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