WEATHER53 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 That time of the year again. Long-range progs are advertising a potentially chilly start to October. Rules are the same as before...minimum cumulative departure wins. So, a forecast of November 5th for DCA's first freeze would have a departure of 5 if the first freeze is actually on November 10th. This departure is added to that for RIC, IAD and BWI for a contestant's total departure. You are forecasting the first day the temperature reaches 32F or lower at the following 4 stations: RIC: DCA: IAD: BWI: Tiebreaker: Cumulative rainfall for November 1-14 at BWI Contest closes at the end of the month (11:59pm September 30th). Ric:11/5 DCA:11/5 IAD:10/22 BWI:10/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 RIC 11/01 DCA 11/23 IAD 11/01 BWI 11/01 Tie breaker 0.55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 RIC: 11/24 DCA: 12/01 IAD: 11/10 BWI: 11/17 Tiebreaker: 1.65" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 extrapolating 7 days after d15 looks like my iad call is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 That time of the year again. Long-range progs are advertising a potentially chilly start to October. Rules are the same as before...minimum cumulative departure wins. So, a forecast of November 5th for DCA's first freeze would have a departure of 5 if the first freeze is actually on November 10th. This departure is added to that for RIC, IAD and BWI for a contestant's total departure. RIC: Nov 4th DCA: Dec 3 IAD: Oct 27th BWI: Oct 28th Tiebreaker: Cumulative rainfall for November 1-14 at BWI 1.56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 RIC Nov 7 DCA Nov 20 IAD oct 27 BWI nov 7 BWI Nov 1-14 rain.. 0.79" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 RIC: 11/24 DCA: 11/2 IAD: 10/21 BWI: 10/26 Tiebreaker: 1.18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Contest is closed! Bring on the cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Interesting crowd-sourcing factoid: I averaged the gueses for DCA, to find the mean guess is ~Nov 18th for first freeze. This also happens to be the actual average date for first freeze at DCA during the last 30 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Interesting crowd-sourcing factoid: I averaged the gueses for DCA, to find the mean guess is ~Nov 18th for first freeze. This also happens to be the actual average date for first freeze at DCA during the last 30 years... People in this subforum are wicked smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Ric:11/5 DCA:11/5 IAD:10/22 BWI:10/29 Sorry about forgetting tie break:1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 12, 2013 Author Share Posted October 12, 2013 GFS says game on: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013101206&time=PER&var=TMINF&hour=384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Euro looks like it's going to try around the same time, maybe a day or two later. After that there could be multiple ops. Might have to hope the Potomac wind stays strong for my DCA prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 18, 2013 Author Share Posted October 18, 2013 Euro and GFS seem pretty consistent in having the fropa sometime on Thursday which should set up Friday morning as the best 1st chance, as that GFS map shows. But I agree, Ian, should be some more chances after that through the 1st week of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 0z GFS MOS for the upcoming cold snap: Thursday, Friday, Saturday morning lows: IAD: 33,33,34 BWI: 34,33,34 DCA: 39,38,40 RIC: 38,38,37 If we use the thumb that MOS runs a tad high, then IAD and BWI are probably pretty good chances. 6z GFS raw numbers (interpolating off a map) look like locks for IAD (Friday and Saturday) and RIC (Saturday). Possibly BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 My annual first freeze write up http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/22/coming-cold-blast-first-freeze-on-the-way-for-many-in-mid-atlantic/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 "Cold blast" Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 0z GFS MOS for the upcoming cold snap: Thursday, Friday, Saturday morning lows: IAD: 33,33,34 BWI: 34,33,34 DCA: 39,38,40 RIC: 38,38,37 If we use the thumb that MOS runs a tad high, then IAD and BWI are probably pretty good chances. 6z GFS raw numbers (interpolating off a map) look like locks for IAD (Friday and Saturday) and RIC (Saturday). Possibly BWI. 12z GFS MOS: IAD: 34,31,32 BWI: 34,32,33 DCA: 39,37,39 RIC: 38,35,33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 If Richmond gets there, that will harm a lot of guesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 If Richmond gets there, that will harm a lot of guesses. Oh yeah. Most people went for November for RIC. But, if this year is like the last few, the contest will come down to DCA since it is so variable compared to the other 3. Got several people who could hit straight on this week: Ian: IAD and BWI both 10/26 WinterWxLuvr: IAD 10/24 UIWWildthing: IAD 10/24 East Coast NPZ: IAD and BWI both 10/24 NE Balti Zen: IAD 10/26 UVVmet84: IAD 10/26 yoda: IAD and BWI both 10/24 wxmeddler: BWI 10/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 I also know Richmond can be sneaky early at times This guy knows his chit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 0z GFS MOS for the upcoming cold snap: Thursday, Friday, Saturday morning lows: IAD: 33,33,34 BWI: 34,33,34 DCA: 39,38,40 RIC: 38,38,37 If we use the thumb that MOS runs a tad high, then IAD and BWI are probably pretty good chances. 6z GFS raw numbers (interpolating off a map) look like locks for IAD (Friday and Saturday) and RIC (Saturday). Possibly BWI. Ric will not make it before BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 My guess: IAD Friday, BWI and RIC Saturday, DCA sometime around Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 Oh yeah. Most people went for November for RIC. But, if this year is like the last few, the contest will come down to DCA since it is so variable compared to the other 3. Got several people who could hit straight on this week: Ian: IAD and BWI both 10/26 WinterWxLuvr: IAD 10/24 UIWWildthing: IAD 10/24 East Coast NPZ: IAD and BWI both 10/24 NE Balti Zen: IAD 10/26 UVVmet84: IAD 10/26 yoda: IAD and BWI both 10/24 wxmeddler: BWI 10/26 Irony that nobody picked 10/25, which now has a Freeze Watch for IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 Not going to happen today. IAD got down to 35 before the clouds came over. BWI only to 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 I guess I root for IAD tomorrow and BWI Saturday at this pt tho I haven't done the calculations. Ideally both Sat lol but that's not going to happen it seems. I could see BWI failing entirely but MOS seems to suggest it will happen tonight or tomorrow night. RIC seems like more of a wildcard.. would be a bit surprised if it happens there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 9pm: 41F at IAD 42F at BWI 46F at DCA 52F at RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 IAD first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 IAD first I missed by hours. LOL lucky guess, almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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