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January Storm Potentials


HM

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I can add some info on the storm being discussed. I was living in Wise Co. Va at the time and the snow started about 9 AM. By noon we had dismissed school, but it really wasn't that bad, but the radar looked like much more was coming. A friend and I decided to take the afternoon and go skiing in Boone, NC. We drove through heavy snow all the way there, with snowflakes, at times, the size of softballs, but again it wasn't that bad. I only wish I had had a camera to video those flakes as I have never seen snowflakes anything like that. We got to the slopes, did our skiing and then decided to leave. It was at this time that we started noticing the cars of what we believed to be employees in the parking lot. They had a good 3 feet of snow on them, and that's a lowball estimate. They looked silly almost. We started home, a trip that usually took 2.5 hours, and six and a half hours later we made it. This was after driving under and around downed power lines and poles, literally hundreds of stuck and abandoned vehicles. Along the way we saw so many flashes from transformers that it looked like a summer thunderstorm. Any slight elevation change made a tremendous difference. In one particular spot we went down in elevation about 300 feet in about one mile and the snow went from about a foot deep to absolutely none, only to go right back to about a foot, with snow plowed boulders the size of cars in about 5 miles. The way that the snow would pack was incredible. At home at about 1700 feet, we had about two inches, and in the county seat at about 2500 feet there was 18 inches, and no electricity for about two weeks as well. I don't have any precip total data from anywhere in the region, but I'd venture a guess that in places it would have easily exceeded 3 inches. A truly amazing storm

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I can add some info on the storm being discussed. I was living in Wise Co. Va at the time and the snow started about 9 AM. By noon we had dismissed school, but it really wasn't that bad, but the radar looked like much more was coming. A friend and I decided to take the afternoon and go skiing in Boone, NC. We drove through heavy snow all the way there, with snowflakes, at times, the size of softballs, but again it wasn't that bad. I only wish I had had a camera to video those flakes as I have never seen snowflakes anything like that. We got to the slopes, did our skiing and then decided to leave. It was at this time that we started noticing the cars of what we believed to be employees in the parking lot. They had a good 3 feet of snow on them, and that's a lowball estimate. They looked silly almost. We started home, a trip that usually took 2.5 hours, and six and a half hours later we made it. This was after driving under and around downed power lines and poles, literally hundreds of stuck and abandoned vehicles. Along the way we saw so many flashes from transformers that it looked like a summer thunderstorm. Any slight elevation change made a tremendous difference. In one particular spot we went down in elevation about 300 feet in about one mile and the snow went from about a foot deep to absolutely none, only to go right back to about a foot, with snow plowed boulders the size of cars in about 5 miles. The way that the snow would pack was incredible. At home at about 1700 feet, we had about two inches, and in the county seat at about 2500 feet there was 18 inches, and no electricity for about two weeks as well. I don't have any precip total data from anywhere in the region, but I'd venture a guess that in places it would have easily exceeded 3 inches. A truly amazing storm

Hey Man. Here's a link that might have some interesting stats for the storm for the Wise county area. The article I've got of it here covers last Dec's storm, but, you can find info about the Jan 98 one also within the site.

http://www.highknoblandform.com/2010/01/mega-disaster-storm-of-december-2009.html

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Hey Man. Here's a link that might have some interesting stats for the storm for the Wise county area. The article I've got of it here covers last Dec's storm, but, you can find info about the Jan 98 one also within the site.

http://www.highknobl...ember-2009.html

Great Link... thanks for sharing!

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The January 98 storm brings back bad memories for me as I found myself on the wrong side of the rain/snow line. I live between Roanoke and Lynchburg in Virginia and that storm had a sharp rain/snow line that setup about 5 miles west of where I was living at the time and stayed in the same spot for 5 or 6 hours. You would go from heavy rain with no snow on the ground to 6 inches of snow with heavy snow falling almost instantly when driving west on route 460. Both Roanoke and Lynchburg recorded nearly 3 inches of precipitation with that storm. Roanoke had about 6 inches of snow before changing to rain, but to the west Blacksburg recorded around 20 inches of snow.

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Just thought I would throw in a quick update about the January potentials...

1. The weekend storm coming up looks like a New England special. I would urge caution with these Norlun trough setups. Someone may end up with a lot more snow than what is being portrayed on the models, especially if the ratios are high.

2. The Jan 11-12 storm has plenty of room to amplify; and while there is a 50-50 low feature, it seems to be moving out to allow this thing to amplify solidly. Also the mean confluence behind the departing 50-50 low weakens with no major CAD signature. This storm, if it wants to, could amplify to the point where a lot of people in the coastal plain change over. Watch for the inevitable H8-7 warming with a setup like this that brings the joyful sounds of sleet to many snow enthusiasts. That being said, there is certainly potential for this to be a solid winter storm for many.

3. There is still a risk in the Jan 14-17 period as the Arctic high slides down and the PNA ridge is still pumping away. Models are indicating two potential waves in this period, so we'll see.

The long range ideas back from the summer/autumn about the potential for a major Arctic blast the third week of January obviously have growing model support. This wave will start in the Plains/West with the -EPO. Ultimately, these get east and bring some pretty anomalous temperatures. We'll see how the timing plays out from a long range perspective.

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Thanks for posting this.

Folks (including many mets) have a habit of latching on to one thing (be it MJO, QBO, AAM, or whatever) as if it is THE key to forecasting, only to figure out that they didn't really know how to use it properly and then get burned later, causing them to latch on to something else. The real key is finding out how all of these factors are connected and play on each other. It's not nearly as simple as "low solar = blocking", even though this winter will lead many to go that route (and yes it is a big factor, to be sure).

just follow 10mb strato warmings!

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The long range ideas back from the summer/autumn about the potential for a major Arctic blast the third week of January obviously have growing model support. This wave will start in the Plains/West with the -EPO. Ultimately, these get east and bring some pretty anomalous temperatures. We'll see how the timing plays out from a long range perspective.

Thanks Nostradamus! ;)

Seriously, great read as always as I enjoy a cup of coffee looking out back at the horse farm, still covered with about 18 inches of snow, as a few deer bounce through the trail heading to Allaire State Park before the sun sets.

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Thanks Nostradamus! ;)

Seriously, great read as always as I enjoy a cup of coffee looking out back at the horse farm, still covered with about 18 inches of snow, as a few deer bounce through the trail heading to Allaire State Park before the sun sets.

There is NO WAY you still have 18 inches of snow on the ground right now in Allaire seriously?!

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Just thought I would throw in a quick update about the January potentials...

1. The weekend storm coming up looks like a New England special. I would urge caution with these Norlun trough setups. Someone may end up with a lot more snow than what is being portrayed on the models, especially if the ratios are high.

2. The Jan 11-12 storm has plenty of room to amplify; and while there is a 50-50 low feature, it seems to be moving out to allow this thing to amplify solidly. Also the mean confluence behind the departing 50-50 low weakens with no major CAD signature. This storm, if it wants to, could amplify to the point where a lot of people in the coastal plain change over. Watch for the inevitable H8-7 warming with a setup like this that brings the joyful sounds of sleet to many snow enthusiasts. That being said, there is certainly potential for this to be a solid winter storm for many.

3. There is still a risk in the Jan 14-17 period as the Arctic high slides down and the PNA ridge is still pumping away. Models are indicating two potential waves in this period, so we'll see.

The long range ideas back from the summer/autumn about the potential for a major Arctic blast the third week of January obviously have growing model support. This wave will start in the Plains/West with the -EPO. Ultimately, these get east and bring some pretty anomalous temperatures. We'll see how the timing plays out from a long range perspective.

I agree with you about Jan 11-12 to an extent. Just looking at the 12z gfs today the storm should have cut inland 9 times over given when the storm was amplifying and closing off. Luckily though the massive block positioned in central Canada at that time prevented it from doing so. A track like that model showed though would definitely produce a lot of sleet up this way verbatim, regardless of whether the gfs shows a pesky warm layer on that run or not.

I think it'a also a good sign as well though that despite how far west that wave amplified on the 12z gfs, (and I cant vision it amplifying further west or slowing down any more than it did on this run) we still didn't get a rainstorm out of it along I95..There wasn't much of a 50/50 low left either, but that block did enough to keep our heights down. I personally believe sleet is a worst warm case scenario with this storm in this pattern, with obviously out to sea being on the other end of the "what can go wrong" spectrum.

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If guidance has the right idea today and brings the motherlode of cold air down (including <480 heights into central CA) in the day 8-14 range, I'd think there would be quite an active storm track along the southern states and eastern seaboard in that timeframe.

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as of today....its still over a foot....I just measured the deck....back yard and a few other areas not in drift land. It came down some yesterday afternoon.

Sorry, that sounds ludicrous. You must be measuring in a drifted, shaded location. Look at all the other CoCoRaHS snow depths as of this morning:

http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/?section=menu&%20target=CoCoRaHS_totalsnow

For specific reports, Lavallette reported 8.0" this morning which sounds suspicious. Other than that, every report is under 6" as of this morning with most stations reporting no more than 3".

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as of today....its still over a foot....I just measured the deck....back yard and a few other areas not in drift land. It came down some yesterday afternoon.

Here's snow depth as of today still indicates 8-12" in the swath of southern Monmouth and in patches of eastern Monmouth as well, where 28"+ likely fell with the blizzard. I've got about 4-6" on average with the drifts still sitting at 13-15". Has hardly gone down the past couple days as the snow's hard as a rock now. Driving around Lincroft, there are some yards that look like 8-12" in the shady areas.

jrcn08.jpg

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Here's snow depth as of today still indicates 8-12" in the swath of southern Monmouth and in patches of eastern Monmouth as well, where 28"+ likely fell with the blizzard. I've got about 4-6" on average with the drifts still sitting at 13-15". Has hardly gone down the past couple days as the snow's hard as a rock now. Driving around Lincroft, there are some yards that look like 8-12" in the shady areas.

jrcn08.jpg

I was just in Lincroft...I saw 4-6" at best..I have about 3-5 left in nondrifted areas

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