January Storm Potentials

[Rainshadow]

It seems the past couple of years, PHL is making foot+ storms look like moderate events I don't remember a stretch like this with several foot+ storms within such a short period of time.

I have to check this on New Year's Eve, but if IIRC the final position of the gwo is going to be pretty close to 1/96.

[HM]

The January 5 - 10 period is beginning to become of interest. As Tony pointed out, the GWO is potentially favorable as well as the MJO which may do another quick pulse around the ph. 6-7-8 octants again (low frequency).

The question is...does the state of the PNA keep this thing more a Miller B / inland jumper or will the NAO become very assertive ensuring a more typical coastal track?

[mitchnick]

The January 5 - 10 period is beginning to become of interest. As Tony pointed out, the GWO is potentially favorable as well as the MJO which may do another quick pulse around the ph. 6-7-8 octants again (low frequency).

The question is...does the state of the PNA keep this thing more a Miller B / inland jumper or will the NAO become very assertive ensuring a more typical coastal track?

great call from back on the 17th HM

reminds me of your "old days" back at WW

do me a favor though, and work some magic to get the MA back into the fun

close but no cigar this weekend, but at least its Dec 28 and not Feb 28!

[HM]

great call from back on the 17th HM

reminds me of your "old days" back at WW

do me a favor though, and work some magic to get the MA back into the fun

close but no cigar this weekend, but at least its Dec 28 and not Feb 28!

Yeah, but it's not as early as I would have liked to call it. It is hard to make long range storm calls in a strong La Niña winter, despite the crazy -NAO. Even solar-based scientists that I know of, only gave a general 2 week notice of this storm as well. But anyway, yeah, this storm was classic in how it screwed over your area. So, the La Niña got a jab in after all for you guys.

You getting the sense that we may be dealing with a lot of changeover action in January? I still think the end of January looks primed for something before we cool it a bit in February.

[Snow Wizard]

I was planing on evaluating the state of the blocking after it was over and writing up a post about it when the pattern settles down. A few things that come to mind are (but nothing certain yet):

1. The state of the October cryosphere / -AO development

2. The state of the low solar impact. As the solar parameters subsided from October's burst, the AO/NAO got increasingly negative

3. The state of the ozone, which became quite above normal

4. The favorable MJO/forcing/AAM that jump started the buckling. (notice the beautiful poleward propagation of the -dAAM/dT anomalies from Late Nov-early Dec which jump-started the -EPO which feeds the -NAO)

5. Oceanic feedbacks with the SST / tropics.

Right now, I feel that the combination of everything is what made this special but it was point 4 that got things going. Point 4 doesn't explain why it was so massive but it explains why it got going in the first place. I'll look into it more in January and write something up.

Do you think the Northwest will finally get a chance with all of this?

[nzucker]

Do you think the Northwest will finally get a chance will all of this?

I'm not an expert on Pacific Northwest climatology, but many of the GFS ENS are hinting at a rising PNA in the longer range which might be detrimental for snowfall and cold weather in your area. The pattern is really screwing with you guys lately; either we have a big +PNA that torches you guys or the GoA low simply sits there and drives in anomalous westerly maritime flow, ruining the chances for arctic air. Anyway, here is the CPC PNA forecast:

[WVclimo]

Yeah, but it's not as early as I would have liked to call it. It is hard to make long range storm calls in a strong La Niña winter, despite the crazy -NAO. Even solar-based scientists that I know of, only gave a general 2 week notice of this storm as well. But anyway, yeah, this storm was classic in how it screwed over your area. So, the La Niña got a jab in after all for you guys.

You getting the sense that we may be dealing with a lot of changeover action in January? I still think the end of January looks primed for something before we cool it a bit in February.

I've felt all along that January would provide the opportunity for 'slop' storms here in the MA. Hopefully continued blocking presents an opportunity for whatever combination of SN, IP, ZR,RA that falls to accumulate. Not a lot of science, admittedly, to back it up. Just 47 winters of living here.

[Snow Wizard]

I'm not an expert on Pacific Northwest climatology, but many of the GFS ENS are hinting at a rising PNA in the longer range which might be detrimental for snowfall and cold weather in your area. The pattern is really screwing with you guys lately; either we have a big +PNA that torches you guys or the GoA low simply sits there and drives in anomalous westerly maritime flow, ruining the chances for arctic air. Anyway, here is the CPC PNA forecast:

We'll just have to see. My anger level is rising very rapidly this winter. Everything was textbook for the NW to have a great winter.. There has to be something that will work for us!

[nzucker]

We'll just have to see. My anger level is rising very rapidly this winter. Everything was textbook for the NW to have a great winter.. There has to be something that will work for us!

I think you'll do fine in February as we shift towards a more -PNA with the extreme NAO blocking moderating to reasonable levels. Many strong La Niña winters saw the cold shift from east to west as the winter went on, like 88-89.

[HM]

I'm not an expert on Pacific Northwest climatology, but many of the GFS ENS are hinting at a rising PNA in the longer range which might be detrimental for snowfall and cold weather in your area. The pattern is really screwing with you guys lately; either we have a big +PNA that torches you guys or the GoA low simply sits there and drives in anomalous westerly maritime flow, ruining the chances for arctic air. Anyway, here is the CPC PNA forecast:

Unfortunately, I am going to have to agree here, snow wizard. That Alaskan low that sets up will just keep the wind all wrong for a decent PAC NW snowstorm. However, the pattern looks to grow stormier and that always increases the chances for something. Perhaps mid-January may be a time when things turn around for you. This may be a time of another extreme -EPO shot.

[HM]

I've felt all along that January would provide the opportunity for 'slop' storms here in the MA. Hopefully continued blocking presents an opportunity for whatever combination of SN, IP, ZR,RA that falls to accumulate. Not a lot of science, admittedly, to back it up. Just 47 winters of living here.

Sometimes this is just as good, if not better, for long range forecasting.

[HM]

I think you'll do fine in February as we shift towards a more -PNA with the extreme NAO blocking moderating to reasonable levels. Many strong La Niña winters saw the cold shift from east to west as the winter went on, like 88-89.

I agree. February looks like an RNA styled pattern, based on the analogs.

[SnowGoose69]

I think you'll do fine in February as we shift towards a more -PNA with the extreme NAO blocking moderating to reasonable levels. Many strong La Niña winters saw the cold shift from east to west as the winter went on, like 88-89.

I thought February of 89 was relatively cold in the East? I see Central Park averaged 34.5 which I think is near or slightly below normal, and of course the MA had those two nasty snow events...it seems there are two things that always occur in La Nina years...a southern/central Plains epic snow event in March and a Miller A on the East Coast in March, often the only one of the season....often the same southern stream system produces both events.

[nzucker]

Unfortunately, I am going to have to agree here, snow wizard. That Alaskan low that sets up will just keep the wind all wrong for a decent PAC NW snowstorm. However, the pattern looks to grow stormier and that always increases the chances for something. Perhaps mid-January may be a time when things turn around for you. This may be a time of another extreme -EPO shot.

It seems the initial Alaskan low really deprives Canada of cold air; you can see that there's some -30C 850s behind the polar front but not much arctic cold across Eastern/Central Canada. The ridge over Western Canada should keep the East Coast below normal by a few degrees, especially from NYC north as it appears to be a gradient pattern with a flat SE ridge occurring. Models have been hinting at a change to a -EPO towards mid-month as you say, which might correspond with the stratospheric warming that seems to be developing. It's definitely not the La Niña weakening, though: Region 3.4 came in at -1.7C on the weeklies and Unisys daily maps show a strong bubble of very cold SSTs emerging near 125W which will doubtless impact the intensity of the event. So we'll see how much help we get from the Pacific to compliment the nearly guaranteed -NAO block.

I thought February of 89 was relatively cold in the East? I see Central Park averaged 34.5 which I think is near or slightly below normal, and of course the MA had those two nasty snow events...it seems there are two things that always occur in La Nina years...a southern/central Plains epic snow event in March and a Miller A on the East Coast in March, often the only one of the season....often the same southern stream system produces both events.

February 1989 wasn't a torch in the East by any means, but the cold clearly shifted west towards the Northern Plains/Rockies/Pac NW compared to earlier in the winter. I anticipate something like this will happen this winter although the SE ridge will be more like February 1989 and not horrid like 98-99 or 99-00. Here are the maps...

December 1988 temps:

February 1989:

[Derek30]

Any thoughts on what could occur in the southern Prairies of Canada?

About to get quite the two pronged storm into New Year's and then a quick Arctic blast. The pattern heading into winter really screamed "Alberta Clippers" to me. Hoping for more of that in January and February.

[Rib]

I have to say I would be shocked if we don't have a SE ridge dominated pattern for at least a small part of the winter.

[Dr No]

I have to say I would be shocked if we don't have a SE ridge dominated pattern for at least a small part of the winter.

how about for 4 days starting tomorrow.

[HM]

I think the mid January idea of East Coast mischief is looking good. New 00z ECMWF seems like to like an inland track/jumper scenario Jan 5-10 which ultimately looks to become another 50-50 as a Greenland ridge goes up. Should this occur, mid January could offer some interesting possibilities. Anyone worried about ice with this setup on Jan 5-10?

[ptb127]

The January 5 - 10 period is beginning to become of interest. As Tony pointed out, the GWO is potentially favorable as well as the MJO which may do another quick pulse around the ph. 6-7-8 octants again (low frequency).

The question is...does the state of the PNA keep this thing more a Miller B / inland jumper or will the NAO become very assertive ensuring a more typical coastal track?

All I know is that, I'd like a track that gives me a blizzard like that which was just experienced. I got 3" of snow from it.

0z euro has an interesting setup but it looks warm for everyone.

[mahk_webstah]

I think the mid January idea of East Coast mischief is looking good. New 00z ECMWF seems like to like an inland track/jumper scenario Jan 5-10 which ultimately looks to become another 50-50 as a Greenland ridge goes up. Should this occur, mid January could offer some interesting possibilities. Anyone worried about ice with this setup on Jan 5-10?

For us in NNE/CNE this would be welcome news. We have had a horror show since last December, with the recent storm giving some of us a reprieve. Changeover slop for ya'll is our gold. It would be nice to see this pattern to build our snowpack and then a Greenland Ridge to get a storm into the MA. I like to share the love. My fear is that we return to the same HUGE -NAO but it would seem at some point Nina has to have an influence and shift this thing. I am very optimistic for a long snowy winter and hoping that the blocking returns from time to time, giving us the pulse change storms,and a supply of cold air. That seems like a reasonable possibility in a year that is quite anomolous. Perhaps we end up with the best possible scenario at least for us on the eastern seaboard,. When you think about it, when was the last time that Philly got 4 12 inch + storms in a 12 month period spanning 2 winters? And with a pattern that would suggest another similar possibility? This is some freaky rather unprecedented stuff here and it is fun to watch....would be nice to see that continue but in a way that includes us further north.

[mahk_webstah]

All I know is that, I'd like a track that gives me a blizzard like that which was just experienced. I got 3" of snow from it.

0z euro has an interesting setup but it looks warm for everyone.

have not looked at those maps but if HMs talking about ice that probably means a quebec high and cad which may look warm to you but is probably not.

[Dr No]

I think the mid January idea of East Coast mischief is looking good. New 00z ECMWF seems like to like an inland track/jumper scenario Jan 5-10 which ultimately looks to become another 50-50 as a Greenland ridge goes up. Should this occur, mid January could offer some interesting possibilities. Anyone worried about ice with this setup on Jan 5-10?

I think this could be a prime setup for Ice in the NC/VA Apps and foothills. TBD how much cold air will be available. If the GFS has the right idea about the blocking stretching into the Davis/Baffin region, that would promote a 50/50 being in place, and thus a ridge of some sort in SE Canada between the 50/50 and PV in central Canada.

Wedging would then occur. Of course this assumes the GFS has the right idea on things at day 7 and thats a big if. The Euro is still in its SW bias timeframe, so we shall see in about 2 days. There should be a decent southern stream surge too with Jan 5-10 event.

[mdsnowlover]

it willl be interesting to see how this evolves on the gfs and euro the next several days to new years.

[Dr No]

If the Euro and GFS have the right idea next week (12Z Runs 12/29/2010)... not sure how you get a storm to track up into the lakes from the SW.

[Feb]

If the Euro and GFS have the right idea next week (12Z Runs 12/29/2010)... not sure how you get a storm to track up into the lakes from the SW.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

No way that low in Texas at 240 cuts to the lakes. Looks some what interesting.

[nynjpaweather]

http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html

No way that low in Texas at 240 cuts to the lakes. Looks some what interesting.

Based on 240 HR models alone, physically that low pressure system can only move ENE off VIrginia or up through the Mid Atlantic/New England coastal waters. There is no physical way IF all other features on that model suite pans out that this low pressure system cuts up to the west.

[Feb]

Based on 240 HR models alone, physically that low pressure system can only move ENE off VIrginia or up through the Mid Atlantic/New England coastal waters. There is no physical way IF all other features on that model suite pans out that this low pressure system cuts up to the west.

Agreed. I would take that Euro set up in a heartbeat for the east coast. Of course only 240+ hours to go

[Dr No]

Today's (12/29/2010) 12Z GGEM Analogs had 2 KU storms at day 8 ... Dec 66 and Jan 64.

There's alot going for today's suite. LP by the Aluetians, blocking, 50/50, ridging trying to kick the southern stream LP out from CA.

We shall see if these are correctly modeled over the next week.

[Edge Weather]

I am by no means an expert, but to me, the set-up on most models does seem to indicate the possibility of a significant storm some time late next week. Hopefully, this time it will include those people who were left out by the insanely narrow band of very heavy snow associated with this past blizzard.

Today's (12/29/2010) 12Z GGEM Analogs had 2 KU storms at day 8 ... Dec 66 and Jan 64.

There's alot going for today's suite. LP by the Aluetians, blocking, 50/50, ridging trying to kick the southern stream LP out from CA.

We shall see if these are correctly modeled over the next week.

[HM]

There is a growing concern for a potential major winter storm Jan 14-17th. Here are a few things:

1. Another low-frequency MJO pulse through the E PAC-Atlantic sector

2. Possibility of a retrograding Greenland Block

3. Active pattern continues with a parade of storminess

4. Cold air should be very much available

Assuming that everything above comes to fruition, the pattern would become very favorable again for a coastal storm in the time period listed above. However, if the pattern takes on the same characteristics as what just occurred for Dec 25-27, this storm in January may end up more out to sea. With everything being equal, the waves may be a little bit longer this go-around than they were for this past storm. This may keep more people out of the game, perhaps targeting New England more than anyone else. Also, if the STJ s/w fails to materialize just by sheer coincidence/bad timing, that would take the southern states out of the game, too.

So get ready folks...Jan 5 through 15 looks -NAO dominated.